Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Buy/Sell/Hold Report #4

BUY Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers

It feels like this has been a disappointing season for Herbert, and he certainly hasn’t delivered the points you were hoping for if you drafted him among the top 3 QBs. But that’s what makes him such a “buy” right now. (Yes, enough for us to include him here for the 2nd straight time.)

Herbert hasn’t been that bad. He has 4 top-8 finishes among 7 games. He sits 9th among QBs in points per game for the season. And that has come with Keenan Allen missing all but a fraction of 2 games.

Mike Williams will miss at least 4 weeks with the high-ankle sprain he suffered in Week 7. But Allen should be ready for his 1st full game of the season. That will come in Atlanta, which has been the 3rd-best QB scoring matchup to date. And that’s just the start of the league’s 3rd-best QB schedule the rest of the way (trailing only those of Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson).

If Williams does make it back after 4 weeks, we’ll still get the final 5 games (of most fantasy schedules) with Williams and Allen back in the lineup.

BUY Rachaad White, RB, Bucs

We’ll admit: White needs a Leonard Fournette injury to reach his league-winning ceiling.

If that happens, though — and Fournette’s history shows it’s a distinct possibility — look out.

White’s the only other RB on the squad to see a touch this year. He’s looked like the more explosive back while showing off his passing-game chops (17 catches for 128 yards).

Losing Fournette wouldn’t just remove 14 carries per game; he’d also leave behind ~5 weekly targets. The pass-happy Bucs certainly wouldn’t change their approach with White as the lead back. Note that he caught 43 balls during a breakout 2021 at Arizona State.

We’re catching some Tony Pollard vibes here. And even if Fournette stays healthy, you won’t have to break the bank for White, who’s topped 8 PPR points only once.

BUY George Pickens, WR, Steelers

We had Pickens queued up as a BUY even before Tuesday’s Chase Claypool trade. That probably makes the rookie a bit pricier to acquire – but it also has us even more excited about his rest-of-season outlook.

Since Week 4, when QB Kenny Pickett took over at halftime, Pickens has averaged 6.2 targets, 4.2 catches and 55 yards per game. (And that’s despite a Week 8 goose egg that should lower his asking price at least a little.) That 5-game stretch has included a 102-yard outing, an 83-yard outing and a 6-61-1 line. That’s 3 top-22 half-PPR finishes.

Now Pickens heads into his bye week. We often see rookies step into bigger roles after the week off. And Pittsburgh is clearly ready to give Pickens more work after shipping off Claypool, who’s averaged 6.3 targets per game.

Pickens also draws the 7th easiest remaining WR schedule, per our Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed numbers.

The rookie should have a WR3-level floor going forward, with the upside to provide spike weeks down the stretch.

SELL Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons

He tallied 85 yards and a score last week, providing nice fantasy production … and a prime sell window.

Even with RBs Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams out the past 4 weeks, Allgeier has been mired in a committee backfield. He’s averaged 14.5 carries and .8 targets per game – just a bit ahead of RB Caleb Huntley’s 11.5 carries and 0 targets per game.

Patterson was designated to return from IR on Wednesday, making him eligible to play this weekend. He was the clear backfield leader before hurting his knee, racking up 49 carries and 7 targets over the season’s first 3 weeks. Allgeier was a healthy scratch for the opener and then tallied 16 carries and 1 target across Weeks 2 and 3.

The rookie likely stays involved to some extent in this super run-heavy Atlanta offense. But Allgeier hasn’t done nearly enough to keep the lead job ahead of a healthy Patterson. He’s averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and ranks 31st among 46 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades.

Allgeier probably reverts back to handcuff status once Patterson is healthy. See if you can sell him now for a weekly starter.

SELL D'Onta Foreman, RB, Panthers

Foreman ran wild in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta: 26 carries for 118 yards and 3 TDs.

Impressive. No doubt.

But look below the surface, and you see he’s probably not some hidden gem.

Among 27 RBs with 10+ attempts in Week 8, Foreman ranked 17th in yards after contact per attempt. He was 15th in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating.

So… decent. Not terrific.

As a receiver, Foreman garnered only 1 target on 36 P.J. Walker passes. And therein lies a major problem, given the negative game scripts Carolina will face most weeks.

Mix in the likely return of Chuba Hubbard over the next week or 2, and Foreman’s stock is almost certainly at an all-time high. Note that Hubbard saw 12 touches to 8 for Foreman through ~3 healthy quarters in Week 7.

SELL Zach Ertz, TE, Cardinals

Ertz has totaled just 9 targets on a 12.3% share in 2 games since WR DeAndre Hopkins returned. That’s way down from his 8.5 targets per game and 20.0% share over the season’s first 6 games.

We’d consider that a small-sample blip … if we hadn’t seen the same splits from Ertz last season. He averaged 4.7 targets on a 15.2% target share in 3 games with Hopkins last year vs. 8.4 targets on a 22.0% share in the other 8.

A 12-15% target share for an unexplosive guy like Ertz makes him a borderline TE1 at best. He’s still sitting inside the top 5 TEs across fantasy scoring formats – and scored a TD last week – making him a prime sell-high candidate.

HOLD Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

Jacobs was on an unbelievable run before last week’s debacle at New Orleans. And that’s why a warning feels appropriate this week.

That dud against the Saints wasn’t a correction that was bound to come. Sure, he’s not going to run for 140+ yards and multiple TDs every week. But Jacobs has been a legit RB1 to date. He sits 6th in total PPR points, 11th in expected PPR points.

Doesn’t that mean there’s some room for regression? Yes. You should expect him to regress from a trio of 30+ PPR point outings. But regressing to low-RB1 production would still be tremendous vs. the level at which you drafted Jacobs.

HOLD Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys

Pollard should be listed as a BUY — even after his massive Week 8:

- 14 carries

- 131 yards

- 3 TDs

- 1 catch

- 16 yards

His dominance of Chicago should have been a wakeup call for the Cowboys braintrust…

But don’t hold your breath. This week, owner (emperor?) Jerry Jones talked up Zeke Elliott as the team’s lead back. (Elliott sat out Week 8 with an MCL sprain.) He’ll have a Week 9 bye to heal up before likely returning Week 10 at Green Bay.

At this point in his career — and now battling another knee issue — it’s clear who’s the more dynamic RB. Pollard’s racked up 6.2 YPC vs. 4.1 for Elliott. Even if the coaching staff doesn’t follow Jones’ direction immediately, this backfield should flip permanently if the trend continues.

HOLD D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers

If you endured the 1st 6 weeks of this season with Moore, then the past 2 have been an oasis. His WR9 and WR5 finishes might seem to present a sell-high opportunity.

Perhaps that’s the case. Maybe Moore and the Panthers revert to unhelpful going forward. But even with his 2 big weeks, Moore is still scoring under expected for the year. He sits 11th among all wideouts in targets but just 33rd in catches.

P.J. Walker hasn’t been amazing, but he’s been competent through 2 starts. That’s all we need to keep Moore inside WR2 territory. And are you selling Moore at a higher price than that? We haven’t been seeing questions come through with fantasy players asking what it would take to buy D.J. Moore to solidify their lineup.

Holding on to this 25-year-old with talent that has never been questioned looks like the move.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.