Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

2024 Breakout Player

A Unanimous Breakout Pick

Nailing a single breakout pick is often enough to fuel you to a fantasy championship. Just ask anyone who rostered Kyren Williams or Puka Nacua last year.

Our 2023 Breakout Pick, Rachaad White, wasn’t quite as season-altering as those guys. But he finished fourth among RBs in PPR points from a Round 6 or 7 ADP, returning big value for fantasy squads.

The Breakout Pick is one of the biggest decisions Draft Sharks makes each offseason – and usually sparks heated debate around the office.

That wasn’t the case this year. Our 2024 Breakout Pick has been unanimously agreed upon for months. That’s how strongly we feel about his combination of upside and draft value.

And now we’re ready to share the pick with you …

2024 Breakout Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

Selecting a rookie who has yet to play a meaningful NFL snap as the Breakout Pick might feel risky. But Daniels’ rushing production profile actually makes him a relatively safe pick.

An Elite Runner

Daniels is coming off a huge season on the ground at LSU. If we omit sacks (which the NCAA nonsensically removes from QB rushing yardage), Daniels racked up 1,250 rushing yards and 10 TDs on 10.4 yards per carry in 2023.

Here’s how that production stacks up against the best college seasons from the NFL’s top rushing QBs:

Daniels fell a bit short of Jackson and Hurts in raw production. But he crushed them – and the rest of these QBs – in yards per carry and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

In fact, Daniels’ 92.4 rushing grade ranked seventh among all 170 FBS players with 100+ carries last year. The guy right behind him in those rankings? RB Jonathon Brooks.

Daniels also topped 1,000 rushing yards in 2022 and averaged 7.6 yards per carry over his five college seasons.

The word ‘elite’ is thrown around too loosely nowadays, but Daniels truly looks like an elite rushing QB. He’s slippery and explosive. Daniels had eight runs of 15+ yards last year, including this 85-yard TD vs. Florida.

And Daniels is not afraid to take off and run when he doesn’t see an open receiver. Check out his career college scramble rate compared to other notable QBs from recent draft classes:

What's It Mean For Daniels' Fantasy Value?

We can argue about what a tendency to scramble means to an NFL offense, but it’s undoubtedly good in fantasy football considering the power of QB rushing production.

Of 31 QBs with 500+ rushing yards in a season over the last 10 years:

• 20 (65%) finished top 10 in fantasy points
• 14 (45%) finished top 5 in fantasy points
• 11 (35%) finished top 3 in fantasy points

Daniels' rushing ability alone makes him a good bet for top-10 fantasy production this year -- with upside well beyond that.

He Can Throw, Too!

Daniels is just not a runner playing QB, though. This dude can sling the rock.

In fact, he was the best passer in college football last year by many measures. Daniels led all 124 FBS QBs with 200+ dropbacks in both yards per pass attempt (11.5) and passer rating (143.7). His 71.1% completion rate ranked seventh, despite a big 10.5-yard average throw depth.

Yes, Daniels was working with an awesome group of pass-catchers, led by first-round WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. But Daniels deserves plenty of credit for the big season. His 92.0 PFF passing grade – which attempts to isolate a QB’s play from his surroundings – ranked second among 124 qualifiers (and would have led all QBs in 2022).

Deep-Ball Prowess Adds Upside

Daniels’ fantasy outlook gets even more exciting because he was deadly throwing deep last year – and deep balls can really supercharge QB scoring.

Daniels completed 35 of 55 passes 20+ yards downfield for 1,347 yards, 22 TDs, and 0 INTs last year. He led FBS on throws 20+ yards downfield in all of these categories:

• Completion rate  
• Yards per attempt  
• TDs  
• Passer rating
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

Washington a Nice Landing Spot

Daniels was the No. 2 overall pick of this year's draft and landed in a solid situation for immediate production.

The Commanders return top WR Terry McLaurin; they added free-agent Austin Ekeler, who's still a capable pass-catching back; and they spent Day 2 picks on TE Ben Sinnott and WR Luke McCaffrey.

Daniels will also be working with a play-caller who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury was Cardinals HC for QB Kyler Murray's rookie season, when he ranked 11th among QBs in fantasy points per game. Murray went on to finish fourth, fifth, and 10th in points per game in his next three seasons under Kingsbury.

Expect a Fast-Paced Offense

Kingsbury is far from a perfect play-caller, but he consistently runs fast-paced offenses. Here’s where his Cardinals offenses ranked in pace, situation-neutral pace, and plays:

More plays = more opportunities for fantasy points.

Daniels Already Dominating

Daniels hasn’t had a problem transitioning to the pro game. He’s been tearing up training camp as both a passer and runner. But don’t take our word for it.

WR Jahan Dotson on Aug. 3: “It’s like I’m seeing something crazy every day, whether it’s an off-platform throw, showing the wheels. It’s something every day. He’s so special, such a special talent. We’re so lucky to have him.”

HC Dan Quinn on Aug. 6: “I had high expectations for him coming in, but I would say he’s definitely surpassed even my expectations of the readiness, the command.”

Daniels was sharp in preseason action. His debut included a 42-yard deep ball to WR Dyami Brown and a 3-yard rushing TD on a read-option. Then he went 10-of-12 for 78 yards in the second exhibition. He finished the preseason with a sterling 80% completion rate and 8.2 yards per attempt, ranking 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade among 93 QBs with 10+ dropbacks.

Still Too Cheap in Fantasy Drafts

Daniels’ ADP has been rising throughout the summer. But he still sits just 12th among QBs in the late ninth round in our consensus 12-team ADP. That makes him a value, according to our ADP Market Index.

Daniels checks in ninth in our QB rankings – not too far behind C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Anthony Richardson, who go 3-4 rounds earlier in drafts.

Just as importantly, Daniels’ 402.8-point ceiling projection ranks fifth among QBs, behind only Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Anthony Richardson.

If Daniels hits that ceiling at his price, he’ll be a 2024 league-winning breakout.

More of our Favorite 2024 Breakout Candidates

Honorable Mention Breakout: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers

Patience Required

Let's get this out of the way first: You'll need to be patient with Brooks. He's working back from an early November ACL tear and will open the season on the PUP list. That means he'll miss at least the first four games of the season. Brooks' workload figures to be slowly ramped up when he does hit the field, so he might not be a viable fantasy starter until the second half of the season.

That's all baked into Brooks' declining ADP, though. The rookie has fallen into the middle of the eighth round as the 33rd RB off the board in recent 12-team ADP.

That's a cheap price to pay for a guy with difference-making upside over the second half of the season.

Plenty of Talent

Brooks averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 12.0 per catch for his college career.

After Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson left in 2023, Brooks emerged ahead of fellow backfield talent C.J. Baxter to lead the group in carries, catches, scoring, and yardage efficiency. In 10 games before that knee injury, Brooks averaged:

• 114 rushing yards per game
• 1.0 rushing TDs per game
• 6.1 yards per carry
• 2.5 catches per game
• 29 receiving yards per game

Brooks ranked top-12 among 157 qualifying RBs in missed tackles forced per attempt and Pro Football Focus rushing grade last year. He also ranked 12th in PFF receiving grade.

This is a 6’0, 216-pound back with a three-down skillset.

Good Situation for Opportunity

Brooks headed toward the NFL Draft as the favorite to be the first RB off the board. He achieved that by a healthy margin.

The Panthers traded two fifth-round picks to the Colts just to move up six spots in Round 2 and secure Brooks -- 20 spots ahead of RB2 Trey Benson.

"He's got it all," new Panthers HC Dave Canales said after drafting Brooks. "He's a bigger back. He's got range. There's so much that he brings from a versatility standpoint."

Canales comes to Carolina after running the Tampa Bay offense that allowed Rachaad White to finish RB4 in PPR points -- even while ranking among the league's least-efficient runners (sixth-worst in rush yards over expected per attempt).

White benefited most from the Bucs lacking other options. Carolina's backfield isn't as bad as that team's. But Brooks' competition isn't scary:

• Chuba Hubbard
• Miles Sanders
• Raheem Blackshear

Honorable Mention Breakout: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Even if you don’t believe in the ultimate breakout case for this second-year Seahawk, you can still treat him as a mid-round WR sleeper.

The Cliffs Notes version of his upside case goes like this:

• First-round talent
• Coaching changes should mean a more WR-friendly scheme
• Role likely to improve vs. disappointing rookie year

JSN will probably need help beyond that to become a “breakout WR,” so let’s dig further into that potential.

What if Lockett Tumbles?

We love Tyler Lockett, and he’s in the midst of a terrific career. But he’ll also turn 32 before the end of September.

Our historical aging data includes six different buckets of WRs, and none averages more than 86% of peak production in that age-32 season. Several dip below 80%.

Lockett delivered his fewest yards per route last year (1.61) since 2017, ranking just 46th among 96 WRs with 40+ targets, according to PFF.

There’s potential for the new coaching staff to shift targets away from the aging wideout – or for Lockett to simply reach the cliff.

What if Metcalf’s Not a True No. 1?

D.K. Metcalf has been very good in the NFL and productive in fantasy. He has finished four straight seasons among the top 21 PPR scorers at WR, with a peak of WR6 in 2020.

But Metcalf’s annual target-share rankings reveal a player who probably doesn’t reach “true” No. 1 status:

• 2023: 29th
• 2022: 20th
• 2021: eighth
• 2020: 19th
• 2019: 26th

Leave Room for the Unknown

Smith-Njigba sits tied with Lockett in our PPR points per game rankings and third among Seattle wideouts in our target projections.

But he’s close to Lockett there and passes him in our 3D Value rankings, which add upside to the equation.

We’re not betting that JSN beats Metcalf in targets. But that wouldn’t be a shocking outcome. He already led a 2021 Ohio State receiving corps that included Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

It would be far less shocking than 2023 Puka Nacua; more in line with Davante Adams’ 2016 breakthrough.

That’s when Adams – then 24 – racked up a 75-997-12 stat line despite trailing Jordy Nelson in targets -- and jumping ahead of a 26-year-old Randall Cobb (after two strong Cobb seasons).

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.