Adonai Mitchell - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Viewed as a potential first-round pick, Mitchell surprisingly fell to the mid-second round as the 11th WR off the board.

He has the potential to replace Alec Pierce (who was on the field for 95% of snaps last year) and at least be on the field enough to have a few big plays.

His upside as a 99th-percentile athlete is intriguing as an end-of-roster dart throw.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mitchell was selected by the Colts with the 52nd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
• He played two years at Georgia and his final year at Texas.
• Mitchell posted career-best numbers at Texas:
  • 86 targets
  • 55 catches
  • 845 receiving yards
  • 11 receiving TDs
• Mitchell’s breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
• He was near the top of the leaderboards in the Big 12:
  • 12th in yards per game (60.4)
  • 15th in receptions per game (3.9)
  • 16th in yards per catch (15.36)
• Mitchell was named Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year and second-team All-Big 12.
• He measured in at 6'1, 205 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.34 40-yard time.

What to Expect in 2024

• Mitchell enters his first season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
• The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
• Mitchell enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Mitchell’s profile will produce at 80% of his peak value at age-21.
• No. 1 WR Michael Pittman and slot receiver Josh Downs are likely locked into their roles. That leaves Mitchell to battle with Alec Pierce for the other outside WR spot.
  • Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Pierce ranked 76th in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.