Jordan Love - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Love emerged as a good QB over the second half of last season. Barring some regression in his play, he should be well set up to score as a low-end QB1. A lack of rushing production hurts his ceiling, as does a run-leaning offense. But Love looks fine at market price.

What We Learned Last Year

• Through the first half of last season, Love looked like a mediocre QB. Through Week 10 (nine Packers games):
  • He completed 58.7% of his passes.
  • He averaged 223.2 passing yards and 1.6 TD passes per game
  • He tossed 1.1 INT per contest.
  • He ranked just 16th among QBs in fantasy points per game.
  • He sat 21st in Pro Football Focus passing grade, right behind Tyrod Taylor.
  • It looked like Love’s three top-12 fantasy finishes over that span depended heavily on TD luck.
• Things changed quite a bit the rest of the way. From Week 11 through the end of the regular season (eight games):
  • Love completed 70.3% of his passes.
  • He averaged 268.8 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game.
  • He tossed 1 total INT.
  • He ranked third among QBs in fantasy points per game.
  • He led all QBs in PFF passing grade.
  • And Love finished seven of those eight games among the top 12 fantasy QBs – including three finishes among the top 5.
• What happened? It certainly wasn’t a matter of the opponents simply getting easier.
  • The median pass-defense DVOA rank for Packers foes through Week 10: 16
  • The median rank for foes from Week 11 on: 15.5
  • And both stretches included matchups with the Lions, Vikings, and Bears. Minnesota and Chicago played significantly better on defense later in the year. (Detroit stayed about the same.)
• Experience likely played a big role.
  • It was Love’s first starting season after three years behind Aaron Rodgers.
  • And he worked with an exceedingly young group of pass catchers.
    • Among the 12 Packers who drew double-digit targets, only RB Aaron Jones was older than 25.
    • The top 10 included five rookies and three second-year players – with Jones and AJ Dillon rounding out the group.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Packers return everyone but Jones from that aforementioned group.
• Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson (when healthy), and Jayden Reed led the WRs in playing time. Dontayvion Wicks saw some role growth later in the season and produced efficiently as a fifth-round rookie.
• TE Luke Musgrave is back healthy after losing six games to a lacerated kidney and then seeing a limited role upon his return. Fellow 2023 rookie Tucker Kraft proved to be a strong fill-in.
• The offensive coaching staff remains intact as well. HC Matt LaFleur heads into his sixth season at the helm. OC Adam Stenavich hits Year 3 in his post. And Tom Clements begins Year 4 as QBs coach, as well as his 26th year on an NFL coaching staff.
• Green Bay has gradually moved to more of a run lean across LaFleur’s head-coaching stint. Overall, the Packers rank 11th in neutral-situation pass rate since the start of 2019, according to RBSDM.com. But check out the annual rankings:
  • 2019: fifth
  • 2020: 10th
  • 2021: 11th
  • 2022: 18th
  • 2023: 20th
• That span, of course, included the winding down of Aaron Rodgers’ career and a refreshing of the WR corps. Davante Adams left after 2021. Allen Lazard led the 2022 squad in targets, and then he (and Randall Cobb) left with Rodgers.
• This year’s version paid up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3 (after parting ways with Aaron Jones). So it seems unlikely that we get a dramatic shift back toward the pass. But perhaps we see a slight move in that direction as the pass-catchers and new QB mature.
• Love ranked just 11th among QBs in rushing yards in 2023, 13th in carries – despite being one of just nine QBs to play in all 17 games. He also tied for just 22nd in total scrambles, according to PFF.
  • So although he can run, neither Love nor the Packers seem especially interested in leveraging that aspect of his game.
  • That makes him a good bet to regress from last year’s 4 rushing TDs, which tied for seventh-most at the position.