Juwan Johnson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Johnson struggled to stay healthy last year but was a red zone threat late in the season. Derek Carr got more comfortable with Johnson as the year went on.

Though he is unlikely to get the volume needed for TE1 production, Johnson’s TD potential makes him a solid TE2.

With his ADP sliding into the TE3 range, Johnson looks like a fantasy value.

What We Learned Last Year

• Johnson posted a season-long stat line of 37 catches for 368 yards and four TDs on 59 targets across 13 games.
• His per-game averages were similar to his 2022 season:
  • 4.54 targets (up from 4.06)
  • 2.85 receptions (up from 2.63)
  • 28.3 yards (down from 31.8)
  • 9.9 yards per catch (down from 12.1)
  • 0.31 TDs (down from 0.44)
• Johnson ranked as the PPR TE26 in total fantasy points and TE22 in points per game.
• He missed four games (Week 4-7) with a right calf injury he sustained in warmups prior to Week 4. This was the first time in his career that he missed consecutive games with an injury.
• He had four top-12 finishes. He also had six TE25 or worse finishes.
• Johnson’s target share stayed consistent from 13.7% in 2022 (20th among TEs) to 13.9% (25th among WRs).
• Among 43 TEs with 30+ targets, Johnson ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (1.39).

What to Expect in 2024

• Johnson enters his third season under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
  • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
  • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team finished 12th in the league in pass attempts (604).
• The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
• Johnson enters his fifth season at 28 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average TE with Johnson’s profile produces 87% of his peak value at age-28.