Don’t Trust The Box Score: Kyle Monangai’s Film Shows Star Potential

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears

Monangai exploded for 26-176-0 on the ground in Week 9, with D’Andre Swift out. When Swift returned in Week 10, that fell to 7-28-1.

But the same skill set that produced 176 yards remained on display despite fewer carries. A bad snap even took a second TD off the board against the Giants.

The rookie runs hard with good vision, and the film shows he had a much better game than the box score suggests. 

On Monangai’s TD, he lowers his head into contact at the goal line and stays balanced through it, with teammates helping push him across.

His early agility to hit the hole was smooth and efficient, showcasing his upside as a between-the-tackles runner.

On this play, Monangai identifies an open cutback lane immediately. He transitions smoothly toward it and accelerates through the hole, turning a nominal gain into a 9-yard run.

This run-pass option was set up as a counter for Monangai, but a bad snap to Caleb Williams’ right side forced a pass instead. The defense was perfectly aligned for a Monangai TD, with RT Darnell Wright pulling to seal one defender. That would have left only one man for Monangai to beat.

If he scores there, a mediocre stat line transforms into a strong one.

Monangai’s main weakness remains his pass catching. On this play, he breaks inside from the flat and adjusts well to Williams’ scramble, but drops the ball.

He showed some progress in his receiving instincts throughout the game but still has room to grow.

If Swift Misses Time, Monangai Has League-Winning Upside

Monangai shows strong contact balance and vision for a seventh-round rookie. That ability translates into production when given enough opportunities. Even as the No. 2 RB, he can offer flex value -- especially in non-PPR leagues.

His receiving skills are the one drawback. He won’t add many targets or catches in PPR formats, though his route running has improved even when the results haven’t.

Swift is signed through 2026, but the team has an out after this season. Monangai could make Swift expendable, making him worth a stash in dynasty and keeper leagues.
If Swift gets hurt again, Monangai has league-winning potential for 2025.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Likely missed the first three weeks of the season with a foot fracture suffered early in training camp. Even since his return, it’s clear the injury has slowed him.

Likely hasn’t topped 3 catches in a game this season and went just 2-17-0 on five targets this past week. Despite the limited production, the film shows a savvy player who understands defensive spacing.

Likely knows how to get open and could be used more as he regains full health.

On this play, Likely crosses in front of the zone defense and settles just ahead of the deeper LB. He smartly sits in the soft spot to give Lamar Jackson an easy completion.

Likely runs an out route against a Cover-3 blitz on this play. He turns back as he cuts, giving Jackson a quick option in a wide-open zone near the sideline.

After the catch, Likely lowers his head and picks up a few extra yards. This is another example of his football IQ and awareness of route depth and defensive leverage.

Likely goes in motion before the snap, setting up for an easy completion in front of the Vikings’ zone. He correctly stops to box out the slot corner and moves toward the open space.

Jackson doesn’t anticipate the adjustment and throws behind him.

Likely’s Growth Could Pay Off When It Matters Most

Likely still looks a bit slow on film and had a concentration drop, but his play continues to improve each week.

If the Ravens offense finds its rhythm down the stretch -- or if Mark Andrews gets hurt -- Likely could emerge as a fantasy starter.

He’s also set to hit free agency after this season, making him a worthwhile dynasty stash in case a new team recognizes his football IQ and gives him a starting role next year.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Otton excelled last week with the Bucs missing WRs Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan. His 9-82-0 stat line was his best of the year, and he has now seen five or more targets in four of his past six games.

Despite the production, Otton’s play hasn’t matched his box score. He isn’t dynamic enough to turn short passes into bigger gains.

On this play, Otton runs a curl route along the sideline. When the CB steps off, Baker Mayfield fires toward the boundary. Otton starts to turn away from the defender to brace for contact, leading to a drop.

This play is well designed, with Otton sneaking behind the O-line and slipping into the flat unnoticed. His limited athleticism costs Tampa Bay some yards after the catch, but it still results in a positive gain.

Designed touches for Otton are encouraging, though those looks may shift back to veteran receivers once they return.

Here, Otton runs another curl route, makes the catch, and tries to turn upfield. He goes slightly off balance and lowers his head, despite the defender approaching from the side.

A more athletic TE might have evaded the tackle and added extra yardage.

Otton’s Production Appears Temporary

Otton has excelled in the absence of Evans, Godwin, McMillan, and Bucky Irving. OC Josh Grizzard has dialed up a few scripted plays to the flat, but Otton mostly serves as a checkdown option for Mayfield given the depleted receiving corps.

On film, Otton looks like an average talent, which shows in his lack of red-zone success. With no TDs this year, his upside remains limited.
Once the other weapons return from injury, Otton could revert to his early-season form -- when he went catchless in two of the first three games.

Next Up

Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 10 Usage

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.