Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 10 Usage

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Playing time and touches are the backbone of fantasy scoring. 

Chasing one-week box scores can be dangerous. Investing in players who are on the field and getting the football is more reliable.

That’s why we study playing time and usage every week during the season. It can give us a tangible edge in start/sit decisions, waiver moves, and trades.

Here are the top 8 fantasy football takeaways from Week 10 usage:

1. Is The Woody Marks Takeover For Real?

We've seen Marks lead Houston's backfield before. He played 58% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 4 and 61% in Week 6 ... before dipping back below 45% in both of the subsequent weeks.

But this time feels different.

Marks smashed his previous high with a 78% snap rate in Week 10. His 55% route rate and 64% carry share were also season highs.

Trailing game script might have played a part in the wide backfield split. But Marks played 10 of Houston's first 15 snaps, so it looks like the Texans planned to feature him coming into the game.

Marks even dominated goal-line work. He played all seven of Houston's snaps inside the 10-yard line and handled all four carries inside the 10. Chubb had out-carried Marks four to three inside the 10 over the first eight games.

Could the Texans dupe us again and go back to a 50/50 backfield split next week? Sure.

But my money is on Marks hanging on to clear lead duties the rest of the way. And if he's controlling carries, targets, and goal-line work, he should have no problem producing top-24 fantasy numbers.

He'll also be helped by a remaining schedule that ranks eighth easiest for RBs, including plus matchups the next two weeks vs. the Titans and Bills.

2. Rams Backfield Nearing A 50/50 Split

Willams has gone from a 77% snap rate and 65% carry share over his first six games to a 63% snap rate and 50% carry share over the last three And things got even more worrisome for his fantasy value in Week 10.

For the first time this season, the Rams went with a straight drive-by-drive rotation. Williams played drive Nos. 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9. Corum played drives 2, 4, 6, and 8.

Corum was actually beating Williams 12 to 10 in carries before Williams ran it four times on the final possession. (Corum then got the last carry of the game.)

It doesn't sound like HC Sean McVay plans to go away from this arrangement. (And why would he, considering how awesome the Rams offense has been?)

"Kyren is the starting running back, but I’ve got a ton of confidence in Blake Corum, he’s only getting better," McVay said Monday. "This is gonna be better for Kyren over the course of the season."

Williams remains the better fantasy bet simply because he's getting the first drive of the game. But don't be surprised if Corum ends up out-carrying him in a game or three the rest of the way.

The good news is this Rams offense can support multiple RBs. Only three teams have produced more expected fantasy points from the backfield over the last month.

But the gap between Williams and Corum has shrunk. Consider Williams a RB2 and Corum a RB3 going forward.

3. D’Andre Swift Leads Bears Backfield … But Not By Much

Swift easily led Monangai in snaps and opportunities in the Week 10 win over the Giants. But the gap probably won't be as wide in most games going forward.

Swift only out-snapped Monangai 19 to 16 on early downs and five to four on third downs, according to Pro Football Focus. The snap disparity came largely from the two-minute drill, where Swift out-snapped Monangai 11 to three.

It's certainly notable that Swift dominated that work. He's the more valuable fantasy asset going forward.

But if this backfield usage holds, we should expect the touch gap between these two to be significantly tighter most weeks.

Treat Swift as a RB2 and Monangai a RB3 going forward. And both guys might struggle even producing at those levels considering they draw the league's toughest remaining RB schedule.

4. Confirmed: Aaron Jones Is Vikings RB1

Jones controlled backfield work in the first half of Week 9, playing 77% of Minnesota's offensive snaps and handling seven carries and two targets to Mason's two carries and one target.

Jones exited early in the third quarter, though, so it was tough to say for sure that he'd taken over as the clear No. 1 back.

That looks much more likely after what we saw in Week 10.

Jones tallied season highs in snap rate, route rate, and carry share. He even played all three of Minnesota's snaps inside the five-yard line, punching in a four-yard TD in the first quarter. It was bell-cow usage.

One note of caution: Despite the strong playing time and carry shares, Jones has tallied just nine rushing attempts in each of the last two weeks (due to his Week 9 injury and negative game script last week). It's possible that the Vikings still have a cap on Jones' raw rushing volume in games in which they're able to run more. Remember that Jones has only reached 13.0 carries per game in three of nine NFL seasons.

We'll continue to keep a close eye on this backfield going forward. But Jones looks like at least a weekly RB2. The Vikings have the ninth-easiest remaining RB schedule, with four games against bottom-10 RB defenses.

Mason is just a handcuff at this point -- although a valuable one considering Jones' injury history.

5. Mea Culpa: Seahawks Backfield Still An Ugly Committee

Hand up. I got this one wrong.

I thought Seattle's Week 9 backfield deployment meant Walker would lead this backfield the rest of the way. Nope. Seattle went right back to an even split in Week 10 -- and even got Holani involved.

Walker edged Charbonnet in snaps and easily beat him in routes. But Charbonnet played more long-down-and-distance snaps. Both guys got two snaps inside the 10-yard line and one inside the five.

This, of course, was a funky game. The Seahawks led 28-0 early in the second quarter, had only 15 dropbacks, and pulled starters for the final drive.

The vast majority of Holani's work came late in the fourth quarter. But he also siphoned a nine-yard TD in the first quarter -- two plays after Walker ran for seven yards to get Seattle down to Arizona's nine. I don't expect Holani to be a factor going forward, but it was just another gut punch in what's been one of the league's most frustrating backfields.

So we're back to where we were a couple of weeks ago, with Walker and Charbonnet no better than fantasy RB3s.

6. Is Dan Campbell Bad News For Jahmyr Gibbs?

HC Dan Campbell took over the play calling in Week 10 -- and we got some interesting new wrinkles. The Lions registered a positive pass rate over expectation for the first time all season and increased their use of play action (52% of dropbacks) and pre-snap motion (79%).

We also got a shift in backfield usage away from Gibbs and toward Montgomery.

Gibbs' 50% snap rate was a season low. His 46% route rate was six percentage points below his mark heading into Week 10. Montgomery, meanwhile, tallied season highs in both snap and route rate.

The most notable micro change in usage was in long-down-and-distance situations. Per Fantasy Life, Montgomery got 75% of those snaps to Gibbs' 25%. Over the Lions' first eight games, Gibbs out-snapped Montgomery 58% to 45% in those situations. Gibbs got rocked in pass protection in the Week 9 loss to the Vikings, which likely played a role in this change.

It's just one game -- and it was an easy win over Washington. So I'm not ready to say this will definitely be the arrangement the rest of the way. But Detroit's Week 10 backfield looked a lot like what we saw last year, when Montgomery beat Gibbs 14.7 to 14.4 in expected PPR points per game.

I'm not brave enough to recommend selling Gibbs. He's unlikely to get elite usage the rest of the way, but he's proven capable of out-producing his volume.

Montgomery looks like a potential buy, though. He tallied just 71 scoreless yards in Week 10 and is sitting 25th among RBs in PPR points per game on the season. He's a good bet to finish higher than that if last week's usage holds. Montgomery ranked 18th in expected PPR points per game and 11th in actual points per game in 13 healthy outings last year.

7. Should Bijan Robinson Owners Be Worried?

Robinson's two worst fantasy outings of the season -- RB32 and RB25 PPR finishes -- have come over the last three weeks. Allgeier, meanwhile, has punched in three rushing TDs over that span.

Cause for concern for Robinson's fantasy value? A little yes ... but mostly no.

Robinson's playing time and share of backfield work hasn't tangibly changed from his first six games to the last three. His expected points per game have plummeted, though. Robinson averaged 16.2 carries and 6.5 targets over the first six vs. just 12.7 carries and 5.0 targets over the last three.

What's up there? The Falcons have simply run fewer plays: 65.0 per game over the first six to 54.3 over the last three.

That's very likely to bounce back, meaning more volume for Robinson.

What's less likely to change is Atlanta's backfield usage near the goal line. Allgeier has been controlling that work all season, out-carrying Robinson 13 to five inside the 10-yard line and five to two inside the five. Allgeier has six rushing scores on 4.0 expected; Robinson 2 TDs on 2.0 expected.

That's enough to knock Robinson from the truly elite RB tier that's now composed of Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. But Robinson is still right there with De'Von Achane, battling for the title of RB3. He's a solid hold.

8. Sean Tucker Gaining On Rachaad White

White has mustered just 3.4 yards per carry as Tampa Bay's lead back over the last five games, failing to top 3.8 in any contest. So the Bucs have started to shift rushing work away from White and to Tucker.

Tucker has tallied 12 and nine carries over the last two games vs. 13 to 10 for White. And, while White has managed just 73 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry over that span, Tucker has ripped off 95 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. Don't be surprised if this split shifts even further in Tucker's direction going forward.

White continues to dominate passing-game work, and I don't expect that to change. That makes him the better fantasy bet, although he now looks like more of a mid- to low-end RB2.

Tucker, meanwhile, has worked his way into the RB3 mix. The floor is low due to the lack of pass-catching production. But he's a particularly intriguing play in Week 11 against a run-funnel Bills defense that ranks 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Next Up

Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups: Go Grab Blake Corum Now

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.