Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 13: The Broncos Keep Rolling

Week 13 hits with a full holiday slate, with three Thursday games and one on Friday.

That means lineup decisions come fast. Roles are shifting, injuries continue to pile up, and several matchups could swing playoff races.

The right lineup decisions, powered by Draft Sharks rankings, can make all the difference.

Here’s who you can trust this week and who’s better left on the bench.

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix has feasted on weak pass defenses and gets one of the worst

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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Bo Nix

QB9 on Sun 8:20 PM @ WAS

Bye12

3D PPR ROS295.4

3D Value7

Nix’s production has swung from week to week, but he has punished weak pass defenses. In three games against bottom-5 units in fantasy points allowed to QBs, he delivered these finishes:

• QB2
• QB9
• QB1

Now he draws a Washington defense that has been one of the league’s softest. The Commanders allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (249.5) and the third-most TD passes (22). They’ve also been a gift at home. The last four visiting QBs all posted top-10 fantasy weeks:

Denver enters as a 6.5-point road favorite on an eight-game winning streak. Expect Nix to start fast and take full advantage of a defense that hasn’t stopped anyone.

Sit

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones

QB21 on Sun 1:00 PM vs HOU

Bye11

3D PPR ROS290.7

3D Value13

Since blowing out the Titans in Week 8, the Colts have dropped two of three, and Jones has regressed. Over that span, he has thrown 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and lost three fumbles.

Last week, Kansas City sold out to stop Jonathan Taylor, and the plan worked. Indianapolis managed a season-low 255 yards, and Jones posted his worst passing output of the year.

It gets tougher in Week 13. The Colts host Houston’s top-ranked defense, which allows the fewest fantasy points to QBs and has surrendered only 10 TD passes all season. Houston is the lone defense yet to allow a top-12 QB in any week. 

Jones is unlikely to rebound in this matchup. He belongs on benches in single-QB leagues.

Running Backs

R.J. Harvey poised for lead-back workload

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RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos

Before Denver’s Week 12 bye, Harvey posted disappointing production but played a strong role. He logged a season-high 61% of the snaps and handled 61% of the backfield carries. Harvey also stayed active as a receiver, posting a season-best 48% route rate. 

This week applies that lead role to a much better matchup. Kansas City stifled Harvey. But Washington has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs and has allowed a 100-yard rusher in two straight games.

Harvey should remain Denver’s lead back coming off the bye, making him a strong starter in a prime matchup.

Woody Marks, Houston Texans

Since Week 9, Marks has played 65% of Houston’s snaps and handled 64% of the carries, out-touching Nick Chubb 62-27.

His receiving work dipped with Davis Mills under center, but C.J. Stroud’s expected return should help. In Stroud’s last three starts, Marks averaged four targets per game.

Indianapolis ranks 13th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, but that number hides deeper issues for the defense. Because the Colts often play with a lead, opponents shift away from the run. Since Week 8, Indy has actually allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs, including five rushing TDs.

Marks’ steady volume keeps him in RB2 territory for what projects to be a close game.

Sit

David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

David Montgomery

RB30 on Thu 1:00 PM vs GB

Bye8

3D PPR ROS192.9

3D Value22.6

Last week looked like an ideal setup for Montgomery, but the Giants jumped out early, and Jahmyr Gibbs dominated snaps 48-22.

In Detroit’s last two games, Gibbs has played 73% of the snaps and handled 69% of the carries. Montgomery has played only 36% and taken 28%, scoring fewer than 7 PPR points in each.

He has finished under 10 PPR points in five of his last six. Green Bay allows the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs, and the Lions are favored by only 2.5. The script tilts toward Gibbs again.

Montgomery profiles as a TD-dependent flex, and Gibbs has even out-carried him 4-3 inside the 5-yard line since Week 6.

D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

D'Andre Swift

RB31 on Fri 3:00 PM @ PHI

Bye5

3D PPR ROS204.3

3D Value21.4

Swift’s grip on the backfield is loosening. His snap share has dipped for three straight weeks. Kyle Monangai out-snapped him 35-29 and ran more routes on Sunday.

Swift managed only eight carries and 15 yards, while Monangai logged 12 carries for 48 yards and scored for the third game in a row. Monangai has outscored Swift in back-to-back weeks and leads 3-0 in TDs since Week 10.

Philadelphia allows the 14th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, making this an uphill matchup. Swift belongs in RB3 territory at best.

Wide Receivers

Troy Franklin is Denver's WR1 now 

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Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Michael Wilson

WR19 on Sun 1:00 PM @ TB

Bye8

3D PPR ROS157.5

3D Value15.1

Wilson has thrived with Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined, posting WR3 and WR15 finishes in the two games since Harrison’s appendicitis. That surge may secure Wilson a larger role even after Harrison returns.

Harrison’s recovery timeline is two to four weeks. Given Wilson’s production, the Cardinals may choose to ease Harrison back. Even if Harrison suits up, Wilson should maintain a strong role in Week 13.

From Weeks 6-10, with both Jacoby Brissett and Harrison active, Wilson still led Arizona’s WR corps with an 83% route rate. His rapport with Brissett has only grown. 

The matchup sets up well. Tampa Bay allows the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs and has been shredded over the last three weeks, giving up 622 yards and 5 TDs to the position.

Wilson is a strong WR3/flex with WR2 upside if Harrison sits again.

Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos

Troy Franklin

WR24 on Sun 8:20 PM @ WAS

Bye12

3D PPR ROS183.4

3D Value22.5

Courtland Sutton is still viewed as Denver’s No. 1 WR, but Franklin has overtaken him in meaningful usage. Sutton hasn’t out-targeted Franklin since Week 5. Over Denver’s last six games, Franklin owns a 25% target share to Sutton’s 18%.

Franklin also has 4 TDs in that stretch to Sutton’s 1. Since Week 6, he has delivered WR23 production, while Sutton sits at WR46.

Coming out of the bye, Franklin draws a prime matchup against a Washington defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to WRs. Averaging eight targets per game since Week 6, Franklin brings WR2 upside in a favorable spot.

Sit

Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel

WR29 on Sun 8:20 PM vs DEN

Bye12

3D PPR ROS204.9

3D Value25

The matchup favors Denver far more than it favors Washington. The Broncos rank third in total defense and points allowed. They’ve given up the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs and only two WR touchdowns all season.

Samuel has struggled with Marcus Mariota under center, averaging 39.4 receiving yards in Mariota’s five starts (compared to 54.6 with Jayden Daniels). Terry McLaurin’s expected return threatens Samuel’s role further. He finished outside the top 60 WRs in the two games shared with both Mariota and McLaurin so far.

Throw in an 18.5-point projection for the whole Washington offense, and you get limited upside.

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears

D.J. Moore

WR42 on Fri 3:00 PM @ PHI

Bye5

3D PPR ROS196.8

3D Value14.4

Moore snapped a short slump with a 2-TD outing against Pittsburgh, but Week 13 brings more risk than reward. 

Since Week 10, Burden has matched Moore’s 14 percent target share and outscored him twice.

Philadelphia allows the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs and has given up only six WR touchdowns all season. Moore has scored fewer than 9 fantasy points in five of his last eight games, making him a shaky play.

Tight Ends

Is Hunter Henry a massive trap?

Start

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson

TE12 on Sun 1:00 PM @ MIA

Bye11

3D PPR ROS167.5

3D Value16.1

The switch to Tyler Shough has revitalized Juwan Johnson’s fantasy value. In Shough’s four starts, Johnson ranks second among Saints skill players in both route rate (75%) and target share (17%). 

He has also caught two of Shough’s 3 TD passes and enters Week 13 with five straight double-digit PPR outings.

Week 13 brings an ideal matchup. Miami allows the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs and, before its Week 12 bye, surrendered 77.5 receiving yards per game and a league-high four TDs to the position over a four-game stretch.

Johnson looks well-positioned for another top-10 finish.

Sit

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Hunter Henry

TE18 on Mon 8:15 PM vs NYG

Bye14

3D PPR ROS175.2

3D Value0

Henry snapped a long slump last week by leading the Patriots in all receiving categories and drawing a season-high 29% target share. That spike, though, came against Cincinnati, the league’s most generous defense to TEs.

This week, Henry faces a much tougher assignment. 

The Giants have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to TEs, while ranking among the most vulnerable to WRs. It’s a spot where Josh McDaniels is more likely to funnel targets back to Stefon Diggs, who saw only a 10% target share last week after back-to-back games above 25%.

Henry has finished outside the top 12 TEs in six of his last seven games. Don’t chase last week’s outlier. He’s best viewed as a mid-range TE2 in Week 13.

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Jody Smith, Analyst

Jody Smith has been playing fantasy football for over 30 years, the last 15 as an analyst, writer, and editor. Jody's rankings have been among the most consistent, placing him inside the top-10 in multi-year accuracy.