Deebo Samuel Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Samuel scattered 51 catches, 670 yards, and three TDs across 14 games last year. His rushing line: 42-136-1.

His production needs some context, as he dealt with a serious illness (pneumonia) in-season.

In five games before the illness, Samuel tallied 10.5 yards per target and 2.19 yards per route. In his nine games following pneumonia: 6.8 yards per target and 1.26 yards per route.

In total, the sixth-year pro finished with a career-low 11.1 PPR points per game. After ranking WR12 and WR15 over the first two weeks, he tallied only two more top-15 fantasy performances. He finished WR43 or worse nine times.

Usage & Role

Excluding Week 7 – when Samuel left after only four snaps – he handled an 18.9% target share. That was down from his marks in 2023 (22.1%) and 2022 (23.3%).

As usual, he handled a short-range role, leading to a 6.9-yard average depth of target.

Efficiency Metrics

Deebo tallied career lows in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (72.1) and yards per route run (1.60).

Samuel also received poor marks in ESPN’s Receiver Score, which measures a WR’s ability to get open, complete a catch, and gain yards after the catch. Among 116 qualifying WRs, Samuel ranked 82nd.

Offensive Context

Samuel was poised for a larger role last year. RB Christian McCaffrey played only four games, while WR Brandon Aiyuk lasted just seven. Plus, Round 1 WR Ricky Pearsall didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 7.

Now, QB Brock Purdy’s play dipped last fall. Still, 2024 proved particularly disappointing for Samuel, who topped 75 yards only once over his final nine games.

Injury History

Samuel missed three games while battling an assortment of injuries: ribs, calf, wrist, and oblique. As noted, he also battled through a case of pneumonia.

The 29-year-old has now missed multiple games in three straight seasons.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Washington acquired Samuel for a Round 5 pick. He’s only under contract for this season.

He projects as the No. 2 target behind Terry McLaurin. Last season, McLaurin remained a viable No. 1 WR with an 82-1,096-13 receiving line on 117 targets. He turns 30 in September but hasn’t exhibited any signs of decline.

TE Zach Ertz showed he remains a viable chain mover after tallying 66-654-7 last year. Still, he carries legitimate decline risk at 34. He played 11 or fewer games in three of four seasons before 2024.

Washington’s other pieces – Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and rookie Jaylin Lane – won’t present target roadblocks.

Deebo should also earn some rushing work. Washington’s backfield of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler projects as league average.

Supporting Cast

Washington supported Jayden Daniels with the trade for LT Laremy Tunsil. His addition should raise the ceiling on the entire offense.

Even if Daniels’ performance flatlines, he’ll provide stability for Samuel. We’ll look for improvement from the second-year passer on shorter-range throws, though. Per PFF, he tallied an 80.7% adjusted completion rate on throws between 0-9 yards. That ranked 28th among 38 qualifying QBs.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

OC Kliff Kingsbury enters a second season.

Samuel should fit well in an offense that likes to execute screens. Last year, Daniels ranked ninth among 47 QBs in screen drop backs, per PFF.

Easy catch-and-run opportunities are nothing new for Samuel. He saw a whopping 50% of his targets come on screens in 2024.

Here’s how that compares to past seasons:

• 2023: 43.6%
• 2022: 40%
• 2021: 50%
• 2020: 70.8%
• 2019: 31.3%

Interestingly, HC Dan Quinn hinted at a new wrinkle to get the ball in Deebo’s hands.

Here’s what he said about Deebo’s role – and whether it’ll mirror the past: