Tyler Allgeier's Preseason Player Analysis

Bottom Line

Allgeier frustrated Bijan Robinson managers last year when Arthur Smith turned to him in key situations.

The new offense for the Falcons leans heavily on the primary RB, so Allgeier’s production will be sparse this year unless Robinson gets hurt.

His ADP reflects the need for injury to be relevant. He is only being drafted as an end-of-the-draft flier.

We have him ranked similarly in our 2024 RB rankings due to the new offensive scheme.

Allgeier could snipe a TD or two, but he won’t be reliable as a week-to-week starter without a Robinson injury.

What We Learned Last Year

• Allgeier’s 876 total yards ranked 36th among RBs. His 18 catches ranked 51st.
• He did not miss any games due to injury.
• Allgeier ranked as the PPR RB32 in total fantasy points (131.2) and RB37 in points per game (7.3).
  • He finished RB12 or better twice. He recorded three games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 25th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate.
• Allgeier had 180 rushes to Bijan Robinson’s 203.
• He played 32% of the Falcon’s offensive snaps last season.
• He averaged:
  • 11.3 carries
  • 41.2 rushing yards
  • 0.25 rushing TDs
  • 1.25 targets (4.2% share)
  • 0.94 catches
  • 11.44 receiving yards
  • 0.06 receiving TDs
• Allgeier was efficient as a runner. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
  • 20th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 19th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 39th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• He was surprisingly very good as a receiver. Among 59 RBs with 20+ targets, Allgeier ranked:
  • 4th in PFF receiving grade
  • 2nd in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• Allgeier will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • While Robinson was on staff, the Rams averaged 456.6 rushes per season.
  • The backup RB had 22.21% of the rushing attempts during that time.
• Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
  • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• Allgeier enters his 3rd season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with his profile produces at peak value in his age-24 season.