Don’t Trust the Box Score: TreVeyon Henderson Breakout Coming

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson’s absence last week with turf toe came as a surprise. In his first NFL start, Henderson led Patriots RBs with 18 touches, but fantasy managers were left frustrated. 2024 undrafted free agent Terrell Jennings logged 12 touches and scored the lone RB TD.

Henderson’s 14-55-0 rushing line and 4-32-0 receiving line were serviceable but fell short of expectations. He ranked RB14 in expected points, suggesting better days ahead.

On film, Henderson looks like a future star receiving back who can also handle inside runs when the O-line gives him room.

Here, Henderson shows short-area quickness, shifting around his blocks to find the open lane. He picks up 8 yards before contact.

Henderson wasn’t known for his inside rushing in college, but this was a strong showing against a stout Falcons run defense.

On this inside run, Henderson absorbs contact at the line but stays balanced, churning his legs for an extra 4 yards.

Even more than his interior running, Henderson flashed the open-field ability that made him a second-round draft pick.

Henderson leaks out of the backfield to make a catch in space. Safeties Xavier Watts and Mike Hughes close in, but he runs through both and stays upright, turning a short pass into a chunk gain.

Getting Henderson the ball in the open field consistently can create these plays. When blocking breaks down, though, he still struggles to escape losses.

On this toss, the Patriots try to get Henderson outside, but DE Arnold Ebiketie blasts through the line and past the pulling guard to meet him in the backfield.

Even if Henderson had evaded Ebiketie, another missed block inside would have doomed the play. The 8-yard loss looks bad on the stat sheet, but Henderson had no chance.

Henderson Keeps Making the Most of His Chances 

With even modest blocking, Henderson can make defenders miss and stay upright through contact. He deserves more touches given his explosiveness.

Still, OC Josh McDaniels tends to prioritize defined roles over simply playing the most talented RB. With Jennings earning steady work, Henderson could remain in a part-time role.

Even so, he’s worth stashing, especially in favorable matchups where his tackle-breaking can produce chunk plays. He also has one of the league’s most favorable remaining RB schedules.

In dynasty formats, Henderson’s talent still points to potential RB1 upside within the next year or two.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers

Watson has played two games since returning from last year’s ACL tear, showcasing his strong deep-threat ability in both. He has posted receiving lines of 4-85-0 and 2-58-0, averaging 23.8 yards per reception, with four targets in each game.

Now, with Tucker Kraft out for the season and Matthew Golden day-to-day (shoulder), Watson could become an even bigger factor. The film shows that his footwork and athleticism remain intact after the knee injury.

On this play, Watson makes a sharp cut on an out route while CB Michael Jackson plays off coverage, leaving him wide open. Jordan Love reads the defense pre-snap and identifies the mismatch, making Watson the first read.

Watson shows great footwork and cutting ability despite the recent ACL tear. He looks healthy and ready for a larger role.

Though Watson doesn’t get the target here, he gets open with a crisp cut on a crossing route. Love hits his first read in the flat instead of progressing to Watson. Still, it’s a positive sign to see Watson winning over the middle and creating separation. More targets should come if these routes continue to work.

On this 52-yard catch, Watson splits the cornerback and safety on a post route into open space. He adjusts to the ball in midair, turns, and boxes out the safety. It’s one of Watson’s best plays as a pro, using his size and speed to win deep and finish with physicality.

Here, the Panthers adjust to protect against Watson’s deep routes. In Cover-3, all three deep defenders key on Watson, but Love still takes the shot. The pass is underthrown and intercepted, leaving Watson no chance to make a play.

Even so, if defenses continue giving him that kind of attention, his presence alone should keep him on the field.

Watson Trending Up as Usage and Health Align

Watson is a short- and long-term stash for your bench right now. His snap count rose from 36 (55%) in Week 8 to 43 (66%) in Week 9. With Kraft and Reed out, Watson should see more playing time and likely more targets based on recent performance.

He’s outplaying Golden in separation and route precision. The major concern remains injuries, but his hamstring issues appear to be behind him.

If he’s still on the waiver wire, grab him and don’t hesitate to start him when the matchup favors a deep passing attack.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Warren came through for fantasy managers against the Colts, finding the end zone twice. But his fantasy line didn’t match the quality of his overall play.

Averaging just 1.9 yards per carry, Warren struggled to break tackles throughout the game. He finished with 16 carries for 31 yards and 2 TDs, plus 2 catches for minus-2 yards.

Even with the Steelers’ ground game finding some success, Warren hasn’t looked like an NFL-caliber starting back.

On this play, Warren takes a counter to the outside. The Steelers’ O-line seals off the Colts’ front, and Warren just needs to beat CB Mekhi Blackmon for a big gain.

Instead, he cuts right and slips. If Warren can’t run through or around cornerbacks, he risks losing these outside carries to Kenneth Gainwell. With Warren sidelined by injury in Week 4, Gainwell showed far better open-field elusiveness.

Warren is most effective running with power, but his vision was questionable in this game. On this play, he gets a clean lane to attack LB Zaire Franklin but bounces the run outside instead. DT Grover Stewart sheds his block and drops Warren for no gain.

Even if Franklin had made the tackle inside, Warren would’ve at least picked up positive yardage.

Warren’s pass-catching ability is usually a strength, but this screen went nowhere. After the catch, OT Broderick Jones loses his block, leaving DE Laiatu Latu free. Warren has blockers downfield if he can make Latu miss, but he’s brought down immediately.

Warren’s Volume Masks His Limitations on Tape

Warren went undrafted in 2022, and the tape shows why. His decision-making remains inconsistent, and he struggles to evade defenders in the open field. That’s why Kenneth Gainwell continues to see regular work.

If rookie RB Kaleb Johnson flashes in practice, he could earn an opportunity as well.

Warren offers a steady floor through volume, but his ceiling remains low. Don’t expect standout performances moving forward.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.