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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 11

Time to Play for the Title

Every move you make should obviously be trying to help your team with the league.

But the closer we get to the end of the season, the more specific that focus gets.

That’s why I published a look ahead to the fantasy football playoffs. And although most teams don’t yet know whether they’ll make those league playoffs, you can still plan for end-of-season success in the moves you’re making now.

So take a look at the schedules and tips in that article before you make this week’s moves. Or jump over to any of the Strength of Schedule pages yourself and customize any position by any stretch of weeks.

Here are your targets for this week …

Week 11 Buys

• Bucky Irving
• Puka Nacua
• Breece Hall

Week 11 Sells

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Najee Harris
• Brian Thomas Jr.

Week 11 Holds

• T.J. Hockenson
• Isiah Pacheco

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These guys promise upside for the coming weeks.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We all know the frustration of over-trusting a RB in a split backfield. But that doesn’t mean those guys can’t help your fantasy football team.

Irving might be a little tougher to get this week than he would have been last week, because he just scored a TD and posted his second-highest numbers for the season in carries (13) and rushing yards (73). But those facts highlight what to like about him.

Irving has clearly passed Rachaad White as the lead rusher, carrying 29 times to White’s 19 over the past three games. White still leads the rookie in receiving – but only 16-13 in targets over that same span.

Positive Outlook for RBs

The Bucs will continue to need their RBs plenty involved as they try to fight back from 4-6 with no Chris Godwin and perhaps a limited Mike Evans. (Fingers crossed his hamstring’s ready after the bye.)

After this week’s bye, Tampa gets the league’s best remaining RB schedule – by a decent margin.

The only negative spot remaining is the Chargers in Week 15, and even they’ve allowed the sixth-most RB receptions per game to date.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Nacua managers are probably happy with him at the moment, coming off a 9-98 receiving line Monday against the Dolphins, on a season-high 14 targets. But it’s also quite possible they’re undervaluing him.

Let’s first remember this was the league’s fourth-best PPR receiver last season. That’s why Nacua was going in the first round of fantasy drafts this summer – at least before his initial knee injury.

There’s no reason he can’t live up to those standards the rest of the way.

Nacua was off the injury report for the first time in Week 10. And he seems to have a pretty healthy lead over WR Cooper Kupp in Rams game planning …

#Rams first-read target shares in their 2 full games together (per @FantasyPtsData) ...

Puka Nacua: 41.9%
Cooper Kupp: 25.6%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 12, 2024

You’ll probably have to pay to get Nacua, but that’s OK.

This isn’t the time of year to merely stack down-the-roster options who might do something. We’re trying to refine these rosters into championship winners.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

There’s some risk to this one. But that doesn’t make it a bad move.

There’s risk because Hall’s workloads have tired back toward iffy over the past three weeks, following WR Davante Adams’ arrival. His 14 touches in last Sunday’s loss at Arizona were his fewest since Week 5.

A lack of TDs over the past three games has been Hall’s biggest problem. But near-second is a dip in targets. He went from 6.1 per game across the first seven contests to just 3.7 per game over the past three.

If that doesn’t rebound, he’ll probably continue to frustrate.

Why You Should Bet on Change

We obviously never know for sure what coaches – or QB/coaches – will do. And their choices don’t always make sense.

But the Jets’ offense hasn’t been very good lately. That includes going for less than 225 passing yards in three straight games. You know what could help? A good receiving RB.

We’ve already seen Hall’s target shares dip and rebound once this year …

Hall’s playing time is in fine shape. And he has delivered 5.0 yards per carry over the past three games. So he should at least be fine the rest of the way.

After the Week 12 bye, though, the Jets get the third-best remaining RB schedule by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

That could help propel the star RB to something much more than fine.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• This week’s bye might be your last best chance to get Evans. The Bucs have hoped since he went down that the WR would be ready for Week 12. That’s why they made him inactive for the past three games instead of placing him on IR. He’ll get much tougher to acquire once he’s confirmed to hit the field again. And if you want a fuller case for buying him – as well as QB Baker Mayfield – check out the upcoming schedules in the playoffs article.
• It’s probably easier to buy Kincaid now that he’s dealing with a knee injury. Of course, that also limits who can buy him. He’s not likely to offer you immediate help, with perhaps a missed Week 11 game coming ahead of a Week 12 bye.
• Warren remains a low-level buy who will probably need a Najee Harris injury to make him truly useful. But the case for trying to get him remains intact.
• Engram faces uncertainty with his QB situation now. But he has also garnered 18 targets in the two games since our “buy” call. Second on the team for that span: Brian Thomas Jr. with 7. I wouldn’t give as much to get Engram now, with Trevor Lawrence’s injury. But I still expect him to be helpful in PPR the rest of the way.
• The uncertainty around Cooper’s wrist injury makes him a risky get right now. If you want to include him in a larger deal, that’s fine.
• His QB still stinks. But Nabers is coming off three straight games of 10+ targets and 6+ catches. And the league’s second-best schedule for WR scoring lies ahead. Check to see if those QB worries are driving down the price.

Fantasy Sells

These are not necessarily “must” sells. Some candidates might be. But these are generally decent-to-good fantasy assets that you might be able to sell right now for more than we expect them to be worth going forward.

If you don’t get a good enough return, don’t make the trade.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

What?!? Sell one of the few first-round picks who has actually delivered this season? Ahead of the fantasy playoffs???

Yes.

It’s true that St. Brown has delivered fantasy points, ranking seventh to date in total PPR points and 11th in points per game. But that has masked his issues.

Volume Way Down

St. Brown has thrived on unsustainable efficiency this season. His 80.6% catch rate is high even for him – 8 percentage points ahead of each of the past two years and 5 points ahead of his rookie-year rate. He hasn’t had a target fall incomplete since Week 3.

That’s awesome. But it’s also not likely to last. Just check his first two weeks this year, when he caught 14 of 24 targets.

Similarly, St. Brown’s 13% TD rate is way up vs. last year (8.4%), which already exceeded the rates from his first two seasons (5.7% and 5.6%).

St. Brown ranks just 32nd among WRs in expected PPR points per game, thanks primarily to a dip from 10.3 targets per game last season to just 7.4 this year.

And even that number’s inflated by Detroit’s high-volume Week 2 loss to the Bucs. Outside of that game, St. Brown’s averaging just 6.1 targets per contest.

Don’t Count on That Changing

If this were a matter of a star WR not getting his usual share, then we might bet on a rebound. But his role’s not the problem. His team is.

St. Brown ranks sixth among WRs in target share. The Lions rank 28th in pass attempts, with the seventh-lowest pass rate vs. expectation.

So you’ve got a run-happy team, which suffered its only loss to date in the one game it decided to go pass-heavy. And now comes a season-ending schedule that’s friendlier to RBs …

… than to the passing game.

All that said, you should be selling St. Brown for a strong return – not just whatever you can get. I don’t expect him to disappear. Just potentially score less than you might expect.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It might be difficult to quit on Harris right now, given that he has finished four straight outings among fantasy’s top 22 PPR backs.

But he has ceded some work to Jaylen Warren since the latter’s return from injury. That included a season-high 33% carry share for Warren in Week 10 (compared with Harris’ 49%).

Warren also leads Harris 11-7 in targets in four games since his return.

That edge could become more pronounced and important as the Steelers face the toughest RB schedule the rest of the way.

I wouldn’t trade Harris for Warren straight up right now. The former still leads the backfield in overall workload and expected fantasy points per game. But that gap has closed over the past three games.

Harris ranks 19th over that span (14.9) to Warren’s 25th (12.4).

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

This one’s a bit closer to a “whatever you can get” sell …

Things are falling apart in Jacksonville. Or maybe they fell apart a while ago and the pieces are just scattering further. Either way, it ain’t good.

That has meant just 215 and 143 total yards the past two weeks’ the Jaguars’ two lowest tallies of the season.

Unsurprisingly, the team’s top WR has felt the impact. Thomas is coming off two straight 2-catch games, with just 34 total receiving yards between them.

Sell Before it Gets Worse

The latter of those games came with Mac Jones behind center, amid varying reports about Trevor Lawrence is weighing all options for his left shoulder injury.

The latest has Jacksonville “optimistic” that Lawrence will be ready after the Week 12 bye. But the team’s already 2-8. That calculation could change any time and land Lawrence on IR.

The news that Lawrence might be back after the bye just might boost your chances of unloading Thomas for something worthwhile this week.

And even if Lawrence does return and close out the season, the Jags get the league’s worst schedule from Week 14 on for WR scoring.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• A 2-catch day for 14 yards against a struggling Dallas D certainly doesn’t change my desire to sell Smith. And he’s probably still sellable after scoring TDs each of the previous two weeks.
• Stevenson’s 74 rushing yards against the Bears last week marked his largest tally in four games and second-largest since Week 2. It also marked the seventh time in eight games that he has fallen short of 4.0 yards per touch.
• The Browns announcing Jameis Winston as the Week 11 starter should help Tillman’s value. Feel free to wait through the Saints game and then try to sell, though, if you’re not blown away by an offer.
• Ridley has the third-most PPR points at the position over the past three weeks and a favorable strength of schedule the rest of the way. I’d just keep him at this point unless someone’s making you a strong offer.
• Andrews should be a good play whenever Isaiah Likely’s out. He’s likely to remain a shakier play when Likely’s healthy, thanks to a lower route share. Whether and when to try to sell depends on what you need from him (do you have any other viable TEs?) and what you can get. If the return’s meh-to-poor, just roll with the vet.
• We got another typical 2024 Montgomery game Sunday night, when he ran for just 32 yards at Houston but scored a TD. That marked his fifth game with 12 carries or fewer among the past five. I’m still willing to sell. But the favorable RB strength of schedule the rest of the way means he’s not a “must.”

Fantasy Holds

You might want to hang on to these guys for now to see what happens.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

If you stayed patient with Hockenson through his Week 9 debut, then you’re getting just what you were hoping for.

He went understandably limited in his first game: 45% snap share; 11.7% target share. That playing time stayed the same last week (46%), but Hockenson tied WR Justin Jefferson for the team target lead (9, a 23.7% share)

Hockenson already ranks second on the team in targets per game, with just him and Jefferson higher than 4.7. He’s plenty capable of staying around 6.5+ per game the rest of the way. And Minnesota’s schedule looks like one of the best for TE scoring:

Feel free to swat away a league mate who comes trying to buy Hockenson. And if he’s sitting on a different roster in your league, see if that manager has multiple TEs and might be willing to move the Viking.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Pacheco is returning to the practice field this week. He probably won’t play against the Bills, but he’s getting close.

You’ve been patient this long. Now that the return’s in sight, don’t start fretting that Kareem Hunt has rendered Pacheco a part-timer.

Sure, Hunt has dominated backfield work since shortly after arriving. But he has only had to hold off:

• Carson Steele
• Samaje Perine
• and Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Hunt’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and 4.1 yards per touch. Pacheco has averaged 4.6 yards per rush and 4.9 per touch for his career so far. He has averaged 3.2 receptions per game since the start of last year, compared with Hunt’s 2.3 per game this season.

Pacheco’s the much better player and should reclaim his role once he proves ready.

Recent Holds

Let’s see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• This should be the week we find out whether Chubb’s going to help our fantasy lineups the rest of the way. The Saints are easily his best remaining matchup, and Chubb’s coming off a bye. If he disappoints in Week 11, Chubb will be cuttable in some leagues.
• The Dallas offense couldn’t have been much worse last week. Yet Dowdle managed 4.4 yards per rush and 3 receptions. He’s not winning anyone a title. But he should be OK for high-RB3 PPR usage. Of course, if you can swap Dowdle for more than that value level, go for it.
• Flowers has delivered more than 110 receiving yards in four of his past six games. Continue holding him. And maybe tell him how you feel about him at times.
• You don’t need to keep holding Williams if you see a waiver option with more upside.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want ... and the league mates who need what you got. And then it'll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more ...

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.