Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 11: Retreat Before Rome Falls

Why a Seemingly Hot Bears Offense Looks Fragile

If you read this article weekly, then you might notice a difference this time.

We often lean WR in the buy section and tend to sell RBs more often than chase them.

That’s not necessarily on purpose. The volatile nature of wideouts makes it easier for a guy to score under his usage, whether he suffers a few weeks of unlucky catch rates or simply hits a TD drought.

RBs, on the other hand, either get the ball or don’t. So the standout trade candidates are often guys who’ve gotten lucky with TDs or opponents.

So what’s different this week? The backs are the buys, and we’re selling a pair of second-year wideouts.

Why? I ain’t giving that away this early.

Week 11 Buys

• Aaron Jones
• Jaylen Warren
• Woody Marks

Week 11 Sells

• D’Andre Swift
• Xavier Worthy
• Rome Odunze

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Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

It’s unusual, but we’re actually buying multiple RBs this week.

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings

We all knew Jones’ return would be bad news for Jordan Mason, but it’s gone worse for Minnesota’s No. 2 back than most probably predicted.

And that’s the key. Jones has spent the past two weeks making Mason look more like his trailer than a complement.

Look at the raw stats, and you see just nine carries in consecutive weeks for Jones, who has yet to reach double digits in a game this year. But the snap and work splits tell us more.

Jones Returns to Minimize Mason

Since his Week 8 return from a four-game hamstring injury, here’s how the work split has gone between Jones and Mason:

And really, that undersells how poorly it has gone for Mason.

Jones led by nine snaps in that first game back, likely helped at least some by the Chargers blowing Minnesota out. He left the next game in the third quarter with a shoulder injury but played 77% of the snaps in the first half before leaving.

Last week gave us a full game of Jones plus Mason, and here’s how the usage went:

And Jones has produced the past two weeks:

• 9-78 rushing, 2-20 receiving at Detroit
• 9-47-1 rushing, 3-22 receiving vs. Baltimore

That’s 167 total yards to Mason’s 68 over the past two weeks.

Now Let’s Pause for a Caveat

We do need to step back now and acknowledge those carry numbers I mentioned for Jones earlier.

Although he has easily outproduced his teammate, Jones also logged just nine carries in each of those contests. He’s averaging 7.2 per game across five appearances, though that includes two games he left early and the return game from the hamstring injury: a Thursday night affair that Jones entered “questionable.”

We don’t really know yet what the carry limit is for Jones. Really, we don’t have much data on which to build our expectations for how the Vikings want the work split to look between the two RBs.

In addition to the limited shared action and specific game scripts, Minnesota just switched back to QB J.J. McCarthy in Week 9 after his seven-week absence for a high ankle sprain.

So things are still developing here. But there’s reason to believe in Jones delivering a positive fantasy impact.

Remaining Schedule Could Catapult Minnesota Backfield

We’ve already established that Jones has outperformed Mason since returning, and that the Vikings have leaned toward playing their incumbent more than the offseason addition. The McCarthy factor should only further motivate a backfield lean, with the young QB playing shaky football in his first starting season.

The schedule looks friendly on that front the rest of the way. The worst remaining matchup -- by our adjusted fantasy points allowed -- is Detroit in Week 17. Remember, that’s the D that just allowed 98 total yards to Jones on the road.

Remove that matchup from the calculation, and the ninth-best RB strength of schedule jumps to fourth-best.

Especially attractive is this Week 14-16 run:

• vs. Washington
• at Dallas
• at N.Y. Giants

Jones also gets a favorable matchup this week with a Chicago defense that has lost multiple D-linemen in recent weeks and will likely play without LB T.J. Edwards on Sunday. And even the negative spots beyond that -- at Green Bay and at Seattle -- should favor the receiving back over Mason.

Getting Jones now will give you a solid PPR back with the chance to make a big difference in your playoff run.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Warren’s touch totals have been pretty steady throughout the season so far, with just two weeks falling outside the 13-18 range -- and those were the high weeks (20 and 23 touches).

But Pittsburgh’s lead back has seen a larger share of the work since the bye.

Warren’s Role Bigger Than You Think

He sat out Week 4 with a knee injury, ahead of the Week 5 bye. Warren round a limited role in his Week 6 return, carrying 11 times vs. 12 combined for Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson, and drawing just two targets to Gainwell’s six.

But things have changed since then.

Warren has jumped from a 63% carry share through Week 6 to 80% since Week 7. That’s third-best in the league over that span, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and Quinshon Judkins. His 43% route rate remains close to his previous number (41%), though, and Gainwell has remained even in that area. He has edged Warren 9% to 8% in target share since Week 7.

HC Mike Tomlin said this week that he’d like to get Warren more touches, but that’ll rely on the team converting more third downs:

Tomlin added that although Gainwell’s logged more receiving work, he’s “comfortable with both backs in possession-down ball.” He pointed to the need to rest Warren at some point -- “He just simply cannot play every down” -- and third-and-longs make for obvious opportunities to do so.

We’d love to get more receptions, but we can work with the upside in what Warren already gets.

More TDs Are Coming

I could understand if you look at Warren’s stats and see him as more of a sell high. He has scored only 2 rushing TDs all year, and they both came in an otherwise ugly 16-31 rushing effort against the Colts.

But Warren has surrounded the season-low 1.9 yards per rush in that contest with games of 7.9, 4.8, and 5.0 (last week against the Chargers).

Jared also pointed out in early October that Pittsburgh was due for some positive regression in rushing TDs based on how they had operated to that point. Just because the rebound hasn’t come yet doesn’t mean it’s not still true.

Warren, specifically, sits tied for eighth in carries inside the 5-yard line (according to Pro Football Reference) but tied for just 21st in rushing TDs. His 61% share of Pittsburgh’s carries inside the 10-yard line also ranks 10th among all RBs.

And They’re Probably Coming Soon

If that scoring turnaround is coming, there’s a strong chance it starts this weekend.

Warren’s about to get his second shot at the Bengals. Not only does Cincinnati present the best scoring matchup for RBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed, the Bengals already yielded a season-best 127 yards to Warren just a month ago -- plus 4 receptions for 31 more yards.

After that sit positive matchups with the Bears, Bills, Ravens, and Dolphins.

We’ll see just how positive those last two spots are as they approach -- both defenses have showed signs of improvement -- but Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule stands as the fourth-best for RB scoring right now.

The guy dominating rushing work in that offense could benefit immensely.

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans

If you just look at Marks’ recent game log, there’s probably not much that jumps out.

In four games since Houston’s bye, his carry totals have gone 10, 11, 10, and 14; his catches 3, 4, 0, and 2.

Lots of similar stat lines, with a couple of weeks where he happened to find the end zone.

But something might have changed this past Sunday.

Season-High Work: Outlier or Harbinger?

It’s easy to like the 14-63-1 rushing line plus 2 catches for 18 yards and Marks logged in the comeback win over the Jaguars. It’s also easy to assume that come-from-behind factor pushed his big lead over Nick Chubb in touches: 14-5 in carries, 2-1 in receptions.

That might be the case. Jacksonville scored 10 points before Houston’s second possession of the game, thanks to a first-drive Davis Mills INT and a fumble on the ensuing kickoff.

But Marks got the ball on the first two plays of the next drive and beat Chubb 3-2 on opportunities for that possession. The rookie also played 10 of the team’s first 15 snaps.

More important, of course, were the total game rates, which you’ve already seen if you read Jared’s Usage Takeaways for this week:

As my buddy Smo pointed out, Marks’ snap rate, route rate, and carry share all marked season highs. Marks also played all seven of Houston’s snaps inside the 10-yard line, including four carries.

Not only did that differ from the previous eight games, but isn’t that the last duty you’d shift away from Chubb?

If your 227-pound veteran RB isn’t leading your 208-pound rookie near the goal line -- and Chubb nursed just a 4-3 lead in that range before Week 10 -- then what advantage does he retain?

Why You Should Target Marks This Week

Whether you should buy Houston’s rookie RB still relies, of course, on getting him for a worthwhile price. But now’s the time to try because Marks sits on the verge of his two-best remaining matchups.

Week 11 opponent, Tennessee, arrives as the fourth-best scoring matchup for RBs, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. And they’ve traded away one of their best D-linemen (Dre’Mont Jones to Baltimore) since last we saw the Titans.

After that comes a Buffalo matchup that has already yielded 189+ yards to four different opponents this year. (I’m pretty sure De’Von Achane is still sprinting down last Sunday’s runway.)

Overall, the Texans draw the eighth-best strength of schedule for RBs the rest of the way. And the spots that prove tougher for running -- or find Houston trailing -- will still favor the rookie receiving back over others on the roster.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 10 Report

• We were targeting Collins and Henderson for exactly the type of production they each delivered last week. You can still make a run at either player if you want, but the price definitely went up and might now be too high to target.
• Seattle went right back to a frustrating backfield share a week after what we hoped was a Walker takeover. We got this one wrong.

Week 9 Report

• Maybe Croskey-Merritt adds some value to a non-PPR lineup the rest of the way. But Jayden Daniels' elbow injury -- and uncertain return timeline -- severely damages the value in targeting any member of Washington's offense.
• It might seem too late to buy Pearsall now that he's back on the practice field. But the extended absence makes it nearly impossible for anyone to accurately gauge his value the rest of the way. Might as well take a shot at him remaining cheap enough. He certainly retains plenty of upside.

Sell These Players

Two Bears in this section might seem like overkill, but their cases are pretty different.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

We featured Swift here back in Week 7, but it’s time to refresh that call.

Why? Because Swift returned last week from his one-game injury to remain hyper-efficient on the ground.

Doesn’t sound like the start of a sell case for a player? I agree. So let’s get into it.

Here’s What Makes Swift an Attractive Commodity

When Chicago hit its Week 5 bye, Swift was controlling an extremely meh backfield. He averaged a weak 3.3 yards per rush and a modest 6.5 yards per catch. But at least he faced no real role challenge.

Swift has supercharged that efficiency in his four games since the bye, running for 6.3 yards per carry and eating up 12.5 yards per catch. He ranks seventh among RBs in PPR points per game since Week 6, scoring above his usage -- which has also been good.

Swift sits tied for 11th among RBs in expected PPR points per game since Week 6, up from RB16 in expected through Week 5.

So what’s the problem? There are two, actually.

Rookie Has Emerged as Workload Challenger

Swift’s work increase has come from the Bears leaning more on the run rather than giving him a larger share.

Through first four games, he easily led rookie Kyle Monangai across categories:

Since the Week 5 bye, that has shifted:

The latter stretch includes a game Monangai started in place of an injured Swift. But even if you exclude that contest, the rookie has jumped from RB60 in expected points before the bye to RB39 since. 

And he has played well, averaging 5.8 yards per rush over the past four games and scoring twice on the ground -- both in games that included Swift.

The veteran does, at least, retain his receiving lead. Monangai has seen just five targets in the four games he has shared with Swift since the bye.

The Other Problem Remains the Upcoming Schedule

It’s a lot easier to find plenty of work for two backs and success on the ground when your post-bye slate includes the …

• Commanders
• Saints
• Bengals
• Giants
• (with a 14-point loss to the Ravens mixed in)

All five of those teams -- including Baltimore -- rank 19th or worse in total defensive DVOA. Only New Orleans ranks higher than 19th in rush DVOA.

The remaining schedule gets much worse, toughest of any in the league for RB scoring, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed:

The numbers show it’s not an insurmountable set of matchups. But rushing (and scoring) should get at least a little tougher than it was over the past five games -- and potentially much tougher.

Now Don’t Screw This Up

Let’s take a step back from the negative a little bit to close this out, because we don’t want to just dump Swift for a sandwich.

Remember the first part of selling him? He’s getting RB1-level usage and producing RB1-level numbers right now. The challenges -- and potential scoring regression -- threaten to knock him down from that perch. But a RB2-level performer won’t kill your playoff chances.

These Bears should continue leaning run. Swift still isn’t likely to fall behind Monangai in rushing share, and he’s not close to losing the receiving stuff. And those remaining opponents don’t look like powerhouses set to blow Chicago out.

So Swift -- as long as he’s healthy -- should remain OK. We’re just betting he won’t maintain his current perch.

Sell the Bears’ lead back if you can get a high-level return: a high-WR2 with general top-12 upside, for example. If you can’t get the desired return, then don’t make the move.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

I’m gonna get a little personal here and let you behind the curtain …

I wanted to move Worthy down our Week 11 WR rankings from where he still sits. We’ll get more into my case for why in a minute, because it also applies to his rest-of-season outlook. But I lost that mini-battle basically because the rest of the guys feel comfier with a “Patrick Mahomes WR” than other players in that range.

Why do I bother bringing that up? Because it might be the biggest mark in favor of selling Worthy.

If you took just about any other player to market with the same set of numbers, you probably wouldn’t find much. But for years now, WRs playing with Mahomes have maintained a glow in perceived fantasy value that often outshines the production of all but the lead guy.

It’s easy to understand why. Now let’s get into why you should leverage that to get someone more useful.

Has Worthy’s Scoring Lagged Because of Bad Luck or Weak Usage?

The second-year wideout ranks just 46th among WRs in PPR points per game … and yes, that’s excluding Week 1, which Worthy left after losing a demolition derby to Travis Kelce.

But maybe that’s just bad luck, right? Worthy’s only got 1 TD all year. That’s bound to change.

Fair. But he sits just WR39 in expected PPR points per game. So yeah, he’s scoring under usage -- which leaves room for positive regression -- but only slightly.

And that usage has declined since Rashee Rice’s Week 7 return. Worthy sits 46th in expected PPR points per game over that span, just behind Darius Slayton, Chimere Dike, and Calvin Austin III. Slayton and Dike have both averaged more actual points than Worthy since Week 7 as well -- along with 55 other WRs.

We Were Wrong About Worthy vs. Kelce

We called Kelce a sell ahead of Rice’s Week 7 return on the fear that he would not only lose target share to the returning wideout, but slip to third in receiving usage behind Worthy. That hasn’t been the case.

Check out the expected PPR points per game for these Chiefs targets before and after Rice's return:

We’re starting with Week 4 here because that’s when Worthy returned from his shoulder injury and quickly jumped to the team lead in receiving opportunity.

No surprise that Marquise Brown has seen the biggest tumble in expected PPR points per game with Rice’s return. We all expected him to run third among Chiefs WRs when all were healthy. But Worthy tumbled from first to third, losing more than twice as much value as Kelce.

Granted, we’re looking at small samples here. But it’s certainly not a favorable mark for the 22-year-old receiver to fall behind the 36-year-old TE … who, by the way, has also produced much better over the latter stretch than he was faring while Rice was out.

Schedule Threatens to Make Things Even Worse

I don’t know about you, but all that’s enough to make me want to sell Worthy pretty hard. And things could get bleaker.

This week holds the first of two remaining Denver matchups. That’s the Broncos D allowing the league’s fewest WR fantasy points, and they haven’t even been generous the past two weeks with Pat Surtain II sidelined.

K.C. gets favorable WR spots vs. Indy and Dallas after that. But then comes Houston (second-best vs. WRs) and the Chargers (third-best). A neutral spot at Tennessee precedes that second Denver meeting in Week 17.

Unload Worthy as soon as you get the chance.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears

I saw multiple cases for buying Odunze over the past month, and his two strong fantasy outings among the past three games would seem to validate those calls.

I disagree, though. I see those WR8 and WR7 PPR finishes providing an opportunity to sell this flimsy fantasy prospect before he lets you down again.

You’re Overrating Odunze Because of TDs

Odunze sits WR16 in total PPR points for the season, thanks in large part to his 6 TD catches. That’s tied for third among all WRs, despite Odunze tying for just 36th at the position in receptions.

Remove all the TDs (receiving and rushing) from the top 50 WRs, and Odunze slips to 23rd in total points; WR25 in points per game.

That’s still a worthwhile range. We’ll take a low WR2 with TD upside. But the second-year wideout’s usage has slipped quite a bit since Chicago’s bye.

Bears Rushing Lean Has to Hurt Someone

If you read the Swift sell case above, then you’re already familiar with Chicago shifting more toward the run since their Week 5 bye. Well, check the dramatic impact on Odunze …

• Weeks 1-4: WR4 in expected PPR points per game
• Weeks 6-10: WR26

That becomes an even bigger problem when your QB suffers from inaccuratitis.

Odunze’s QB Problem Doesn’t Need to Be Your Problem

The Bears leaning more on the run game makes sense whether you’re a Caleb Williams supporter or detractor.

We’ll save further argument over Williams’ long-term outlook for some other time. At issue right now is that he hasn’t showed any meaningful passing improvement as this season has progressed:

Among 42 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Williams ranks 29th in completion percentage over expected and 34th in catchable throw rate, according to Fantasy Points Data.

Among 87 WRs who have seen at least 25 targets, Odunze ranks 53rd in percentage of targets that have rated as catchable. He even trails teammates D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus in that category. And if we lower the target threshold to include Burden, Odunze trails even further behind him.

What Hurts Odunze Even More Than His Teammates?

Blame those gaps on Odunze continuing to be the lead deep threat for Chicago … and his QB proving only moderately better on such passes.

Williams has noticeably improved his deep-ball (20+ yards downfield) completion rates vs. a bad rookie year, according to PFF. But his 59.6% adjusted completion rate on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield) ranks just 26th among 42 qualifiers.

Williams ranked 32nd of 43 at 54.0% last year. (So, hey … he’s climbing!)

Odunze has benefited from Williams’ improvement in the deep range. But he’s suffering for the continued struggles on intermediate throws: just 8 receptions on 20 such targets, per PFF.

There’s Just More Working Against Odunze Than for Him

That’s enough numbers to assemble a solid sell equation.

The positives for Odunze: He’s the lead target and has showed he can score from all ranges in his second season.

The negatives: His team has leaned more toward the run as this season has progressed. His QB remains among the league’s more inaccurate throwers. And nearly 60% of Odunze’s targets come in the areas -- intermediate and deep -- that are volatile even for more reliable passers.

If you disagree with that imbalance, feel free to let me know. Otherwise … sell.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 10 Report

• Asked this week if he's bothered by the continued discussion of his future and recent trades of high-profile Jets defensive starters, Hall told ESPN's Rich Cimini: "For me, it's kind of like, 'F it.'" That's about the same way I'm feeling on trusting the Jets to squeeze value from Hall the rest of this season.
• A third straight game of 4+ TD passes won't make trading Stafford any comfier, but it'll also help your asking price. Comfy is for mattress shopping. We're trying to win fantasy football championships here.
• I think Harvey remains a sell, but your price should sit a lot higher this week, given the uncertainty around J.K. Dobbins' injured foot. It's also now fine to hold the rookie RB and see what happens.

Week 9 Report

• As I mentioned with Olave last week, he's not a must-sell or must-hold at this point. I wouldn't go chasing him in trade -- especially coming off a 5-104-1 line at Carolina -- but you can otherwise treat him in whatever way suits your situation. He should see plenty of targets going forward. And we're all probably assuming this New Orleans offense will stay on the bad side of volatile.

Next Up

Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 10 Usage

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.