Week 9 Matchups That Matter: Now Or Never For Marvin Harrison Jr.

             

Welcome to Week 9’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 9 Rankings and your Team Intel page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 9!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

   

Highest Game Totals

1. Cardinals at Cowboys (53.5)
2. Chiefs at Bills (52.5)
3. Bears at Bengals (51.5)
t-3. Ravens at Dolphins (51.5)
5. Colts at Steelers (51.0)

    

Lowest Game Totals

10. Jaguars at Raiders (44.0)
t-11. Panthers at Packers (43.5)
t-11. Chargers at Titans (43.5)
t-11. Saints at Rams (43.5)
14. Broncos at Texans (40.5)

       

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

 

Most Projected Points

1. Ravens (29.5)
t-2. Rams (28.75)
t-2. Lions (28.75)
t-4. Packers (28.25)
t-4. Cowboys (28.25)
t-6. Chiefs (27.25)
t-6. Colts (27.25)
8. Bears (27.0)

  

Fewest Projected Points

24. Vikings (19.25)
25. Broncos (19.0)
26. Titans (17.0)
27. Panthers (15.25)
28. Saints (14.75)

    

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Cowboys (64.1)
2. 49ers (63.7)
3. Chargers (63.6)
4. Cardinals (63.4)
5. Jaguars (63.6)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Steelers (60.5)
25. Raiders (60.3)
26. Vikings (59.8)
27. Dolphins (59.5)
28. Titans (59.1)

  

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Saints at Rams (25.2 seconds)
2. Bears at Bengals (26.7 seconds)
3. 49ers at Giants (27.3 seconds)
4. Cardinals at Cowboys (27.4 seconds)
5. Chargers at Titans (27.6 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

t-10. Ravens at Dolphins (29.2 seconds)
t-10. Colts at Steelers (29.2 seconds)
12. Chiefs at Bills (29.3 seconds)
13. Falcons at Patriots (29.4 seconds)
14. Vikings at Lions (29.6 seconds)

        

Weather Concerns

Panthers at Packers

Winds forecasted at 15 mph with gusts of 25-30. That's enough to impact long passes and kicks. Both teams were likely to lean on the run in this spot anyway, and the weather will only push them further in that direction. I'd shy away from using either kicker in this game.

              

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Colts at Steelers (+72.5%)
2. Seahawks at Commanders (+62.7%)
3. Rams vs. Saints (+61.9%)
4. Ravens at Dolphins (+60.4%)
5. Lions vs. Vikings (+58.1%)

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Raiders vs. Jaguars (-17.0%)
25. Panthers at Packers (-20.5%)
26. Vikings at Lions (-24.2%)
27. Saints at Rams (-24.8%)
28. Titans vs. Chargers (-33.9%)

       

               

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Josh Allen vs. Chiefs (-17.5%)
25. Cam Ward vs. Chargers (-20.2%)
26. C.J. Stroud vs. Broncos (-22.2%)
27. Drake Maye vs. Falcons (-25.1%)
28. Bo Nix at Texans (-38.2%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Colts at Steelers (+10.7%)
2. Chiefs at Bills (+9.4%)
3. Bengals vs. Bears (+3.9%)
4. Bears at Bengals (+2.8%)
5. 49ers at Giants (+2.7%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Vikings at Lions (-34.2%)
25. Commanders vs. Seahawks (-36.6%)
26. Saints at Rams (-37.7%)
27. Texans vs. Broncos (-40.3%)
28. Raiders vs. Jaguars (-47.9%)

       

               

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Bills vs. Chiefs (-13.5%)
25. Falcons at Patriots (-13.6%)
26. Vikings at Lions (-23.9%)
27. Panthers at Packers (-28.1%)
28. Saints at Rams (-29.9%)

        

Wide Receiver

        

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Ravens at Dolphins (-18.1%)
25. Bills vs. Chiefs (-19.0%)
26. Patriots vs. Falcons (21.2%)
27. Texans vs. Broncos (-21.4%)
28. Broncos at Texans (-29.7%)

      

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Jones, Nahshon Wright, and Nick McCloud

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Vikings CBs Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy, and Josh Metellus

Ravens WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman vs. Dolphins CBs Rasul Douglas, Jack Jones, and Minkah Fitzpatrick

Cardinals WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson vs. Cowboys CBs Kaiir Elam, Trikweze Bridges, and DaRon Bland

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Colts CBs Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Falcons WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, and Marcus Jones

Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. Rams CBs Cobie Durant and Quentin Lake

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre

Bills WR Keon Coleman vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

           

Tight End

            

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Chargers at Titans (-18.3%)
25. Titans vs. Chargers (-21.0%)
26. Bills vs. Chiefs (-41.5%)
27. Chiefs at Bills (-55.6%)
28. Patriots vs. Falcons (-67.9%)

          

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers at Titans (+80.2%)
2. Lions vs. Vikings (+79.5%)
3. Jaguars at Raiders (+67.5%)
4. Packers vs. Panthers (+61.3%)
5. Rams vs. Saints (+53.3%)

       

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Bills vs. Chiefs (-61.1%)
25. Vikings at Lions (-62.6%)
26. Panthers at Packers (-66.0%)
27. Cardinals at Cowboys (-71.3%)
28. Steelers vs. Colts (-101.9%)

   

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Riley Patterson vs. Ravens (+31.0%)
2. Tyler Loop at Dolphins (+30.7%)
3. Jason Myers at Commanders (+18.4%)
4. Joey Slye vs. Chargers (+18.1%)
5. Joshua Karty vs. Saints (+16.7%)

       

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Graham Gano vs. 49ers (-22.2%)
25. Chris Boswell vs. Colts (-26.6%)
26. Will Reichard at Lions (-32.5%)
27. Daniel Carlson vs. Jaguars (-35.7%)
28. Will Lutz at Texans (-63.9%)