NFL Playoff Fantasy IDP Rankings

Zack Baun just finished a breakout regular season. Should he lead the IDP rankings for your playoff contest? Check out our full rankings, plus some strategy talk.

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Tue, Jan 7 2025 3:21 PM UTC

More to Strategy Than Just Who Will Win

You already know the key difference between playoff fantasy football and the regular-season version. But there’s a little more to putting your team together than just the obvious.

Obviously, your primary goal is to build a lineup of quality players whose teams advance as far as possible. So you should start your plan by targeting the teams most likely to play the most games.

Here’s how I’d tier the 14 playoff teams on that front:

Tier 1 Teams

Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens

These three teams look capable of reaching the Super Bowl. And with no bye among them, that means the chance for any of them to play four games.

Yes, I know that one among the Bills and Ravens won’t play more than two, because they’ll face each other in Round 2 if both win. I think that matchup could go either way. So I’d be willing to stay flexible in choosing between them in my playoff draft (or other team-building format).

Tier 2 Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit Lions

Both of these teams are certainly capable of reaching the Super Bowl as well. But as the No. 1 seeds, neither can play more than three games.

Between them, I’m more comfy disbelieving these Chiefs (to a greater degree than my DS colleagues).

They rank just eighth in total DVOA. (The top seven teams are all in the playoffs as well.)
They sit 11th in “expected wins” (based on point differentials).
And they rank 10th in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, which combines that expected-wins formula with strength of opponents.

Despite carrying the No. 1 seed vs. last year’s No. 3, these Chiefs look less good than that version. And they’ll almost certainly have to beat either the Ravens or Bills, who rank first and second (respectively) in offensive DVOA.

Tier 3 Team

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings could lose to the Rams this weekend. Or they could win the NFC. The latter puts them ahead of the remaining teams on my board. But beating the Rams would pit Minnesota against either the Lions or Eagles (on the road) in Round 2.

Tier 4 Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Washington Commanders

We’re collectively favoring the Bucs, Chargers, and Vikings to win in Round 1. But none of those three results looks like a lock. So I’m grouping the Rams and Commanders here as potential Round 1 winners – especially because of their offensive upside.

This group falls short of the Vikings, though, because I see less potential to advance beyond Round 2.

Tier 5 Teams

Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers

As I mentioned, we’re not treating the Chargers beating Houston as a lock. But these Texans are probably the worst team in the playoffs – especially on offense.

Green Bay faces worse chances to win in Round 1 (assuming Jalen Hurts is back from his concussion). But the Packers are better than your typical 7 seed and carry at least some upset potential.

(Remember last year when they looked like a lock to lose at Dallas in Round 1?)

Tier 6

Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers

And let’s finish with the two teams that I believe have (relatively) no chance of winning this weekend.

TIP

Looking for offensive players? Check out our NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings.

Looking Beyond the Favorites

Of course, everyone in your contest should realize the merits of targeting teams most likely to advance. And there are only so many teams that will look attractive. So the larger your contest field, the more people targeting the same NFL rosters.

How can you counter?

Hedge by picking good players from less-good teams.

Especially when we’re talking defensive guys, it’s quite possible for one player to deliver as many or more points in one contest as others at his position might over two games – or even three. So you don’t have to believe in the Steelers’ chances for T.J. Watt or Cameron Heyward to make some sense.

Consider alternate realities.

Almost no one predicted that the 2021 season would close with the No. 4 seed Rams facing the No. 4 seed Bengals in the Super Bowl.

If you took a shot on that happening, though, it paid off big time in your playoff fantasy contests.

Don’t cling too tightly to your idea of what will happen in these playoffs. Be open to the reality that none of us knows exactly how they’ll play out.

Top 50 NFL Playoff IDP Rankings

Keep in mind that formats will vary widely. These rankings assume a fairly balanced scoring approach. You might need to refer primarily to the positional rankings below, though.