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NFL Playoff Fantasy IDP Rankings

More to Strategy Than Just Who Will Win

You already know the key difference between playoff fantasy football and the regular-season version. But there’s a little more to putting your team together than just the obvious.

Obviously, your primary goal is to build a lineup of quality players whose teams advance as far as possible. So you should start your plan by targeting the teams most likely to play the most games.

Here’s how I’d tier the 14 playoff teams on that front:

Tier 1 Teams

Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens

These three teams look capable of reaching the Super Bowl. And with no bye among them, that means the chance for any of them to play four games.

Yes, I know that one among the Bills and Ravens won’t play more than two, because they’ll face each other in Round 2 if both win. I think that matchup could go either way. So I’d be willing to stay flexible in choosing between them in my playoff draft (or other team-building format).

Tier 2 Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit Lions

Both of these teams are certainly capable of reaching the Super Bowl as well. But as the No. 1 seeds, neither can play more than three games.

Between them, I’m more comfy disbelieving these Chiefs (to a greater degree than my DS colleagues).

• They rank just eighth in total DVOA. (The top seven teams are all in the playoffs as well.)
• They sit 11th in “expected wins” (based on point differentials).
• And they rank 10th in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, which combines that expected-wins formula with strength of opponents.

Despite carrying the No. 1 seed vs. last year’s No. 3, these Chiefs look less good than that version. And they’ll almost certainly have to beat either the Ravens or Bills, who rank first and second (respectively) in offensive DVOA.

Tier 3 Team

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings could lose to the Rams this weekend. Or they could win the NFC. The latter puts them ahead of the remaining teams on my board. But beating the Rams would pit Minnesota against either the Lions or Eagles (on the road) in Round 2.

Tier 4 Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Washington Commanders

We’re collectively favoring the Bucs, Chargers, and Vikings to win in Round 1. But none of those three results looks like a lock. So I’m grouping the Rams and Commanders here as potential Round 1 winners – especially because of their offensive upside.

This group falls short of the Vikings, though, because I see less potential to advance beyond Round 2.

Tier 5 Teams

Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers

As I mentioned, we’re not treating the Chargers beating Houston as a lock. But these Texans are probably the worst team in the playoffs – especially on offense.

Green Bay faces worse chances to win in Round 1 (assuming Jalen Hurts is back from his concussion). But the Packers are better than your typical 7 seed and carry at least some upset potential.

(Remember last year when they looked like a lock to lose at Dallas in Round 1?)

Tier 6

Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers

And let’s finish with the two teams that I believe have (relatively) no chance of winning this weekend.

Looking Beyond the Favorites

Of course, everyone in your contest should realize the merits of targeting teams most likely to advance. And there are only so many teams that will look attractive. So the larger your contest field, the more people targeting the same NFL rosters.

How can you counter?

1. Hedge by picking good players from less-good teams.

Especially when we’re talking defensive guys, it’s quite possible for one player to deliver as many or more points in one contest as others at his position might over two games – or even three. So you don’t have to believe in the Steelers’ chances for T.J. Watt or Cameron Heyward to make some sense.

1. Consider alternate realities.

Almost no one predicted that the 2021 season would close with the No. 4 seed Rams facing the No. 4 seed Bengals in the Super Bowl.

If you took a shot on that happening, though, it paid off big time in your playoff fantasy contests.

Don’t cling too tightly to your idea of what will happen in these playoffs. Be open to the reality that none of us knows exactly how they’ll play out.

Top 50 NFL Playoff IDP Rankings

Keep in mind that formats will vary widely. These rankings assume a fairly balanced scoring approach. You might need to refer primarily to the positional rankings below, though.

1. Zack Baun, LB, Eagles
2. Roquan Smith, LB, Ravens
3. Nakobe Dean, LB, Eagles
4. Greg Rousseau, Edge, Bills
5. Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens
6. Kyle Van Noy, Edge, Ravens
7. Andrew Van Ginkel, Edge, Vikings
8. Alex Anzalone, LB, Lions
9. Jack Campbell, LB, Lions
10. Terrel Bernard, LB, Bills
11. Brian Branch, S, Lions
12. Lavonte David, LB, Buccaneers
13. Daiyan Henley, LB, Chargers
14. Nick Bolton, LB, Chiefs
15. Jalen Carter, DT, Eagles
16. Jonathan Greenard, Edge, Vikings
17. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Eagles
18. Reed Blankenship, S, Eagles
19. Kerby Joseph, S, Lions
20. George Karlaftis, Edge, Chiefs
21. Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs
22. T.J. Watt, Edge, Steelers
23. Bobby Wagner, LB, Commanders
24. Blake Cashman, LB, Vikings
25. Frankie Luvu, LB, Commanders
26. Patrick Queen, LB, Steelers
27. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Packers
28. Christian Rozeboom, LB, Rams
29. Drue Tranquill, LB, Chiefs
30. Azeez Al-Shaair, LB, Texans
31. Za’Darius Smith, Edge, Lions
32. YaYa Diaby, Edge, Buccaneers
33. Danielle Hunter, Edge, Texans
34. Nnamdi Madubuike, DL, Ravens
35. Odafe Oweh, Edge, Ravens
36. Brandon Jones, S, Broncos
37. Marlon Humphrey, CB, Ravens
38. Taron Johnson, CB, Bills
39. Derwin James, S, Chargers
40. Ar’Darius Washington, DB, Ravens
41. Byron Murphy, CB, Vikings
42. Camryn Bynum, S, Vikings
43. Josh Metellus, S, Vikings
44. Harrison Smith, S, Vikings
45. Taylor Rapp, S, Bills
46. Nolan Smith, Edge, Eagles
47. Josh Sweat, Edge, Eagles
48. Nik Bonitto, Edge, Broncos
49. Ed Oliver, DT, Bills
50. Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Texans

(Players in bold italics carry injury questions.)

NFL Playoff DL Rankings

1. Greg Rousseau, Edge, Bills
2. Kyle Van Noy, Edge, Ravens
3. Andrew Van Ginkel, Edge, Vikings
4. Jalen Carter, DT, Eagles
5. Jonathan Greenard, Edge, Vikings
6. George Karlaftis, Edge, Chiefs
7. Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs
8. T.J. Watt, Edge, Steelers
9. Za’Darius Smith, Edge, Lions
10. YaYa Diaby, Edge, Buccaneers
11. Danielle Hunter, Edge, Texans
12. Nnamdi Madubuike, DL, Ravens
13. Odafe Oweh, Edge, Ravens
14. Nolan Smith, Edge, Eagles
15. Josh Sweat, Edge, Eagles
16. Nik Bonitto, Edge, Broncos
17. Ed Oliver, DT, Bills
18. Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Texans
19. Cameron Heyward, DL, Steelers
20. Kobie Turner, DT, Rams
21. A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Bills
22. Jared Verse, Edge, Rams
23. Byron Young, Edge, Rams
24. Vita Vea, DT, Buccaneers
25. Calijah Kancey, DT, Buccaneers
26. Michael Danna, Edge, Chiefs
27. Zack Allen, DL, Broncos
28. Jonathon Cooper, Edge, Broncos
29. Rashan Gary, Edge, Packers
30. Milton Williams, DL, Eagles

NFL Playoff LB Rankings

1. Zack Baun, LB, Eagles
2. Roquan Smith, LB, Ravens
3. Nakobe Dean, LB, Eagles
4. Alex Anzalone, LB, Lions
5. Jack Campbell, LB, Lions
6. Terrel Bernard, LB, Bills
7. Lavonte David, LB, Buccaneers
8. Daiyan Henley, LB, Chargers
9. Nick Bolton, LB, Chiefs
10. Bobby Wagner, LB, Commanders
11. Blake Cashman, LB, Vikings
12. Frankie Luvu, LB, Commanders
13. Patrick Queen, LB, Steelers
14. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Packers
15. Christian Rozeboom, LB, Rams
16. Drue Tranquill, LB, Chiefs
17. Azeez Al-Shaair, LB, Texans
18. Cody Barton, LB, Broncos
19. Matt Milano, LB, Bills
20. Quay Walker, LB, Packers
21. Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Texans
22. Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Vikings
23. Payton Wilson, LB, Steelers
24. Justin Strnad, LB, Broncos
25. Omar Speights, LB, Rams
26. Malik Harrison, LB, Ravens
27. Elandon Roberts, LB, Steelers
28. J.J. Russell, LB, Buccaneers
29. Leo Chenal, LB, Chiefs
30. Troy Dye, LB, Chargers

NFL Playoff DB Rankings

1. Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens
2. Brian Branch, S, Lions
3. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Eagles
4. Reed Blankenship, S, Eagles
5. Kerby Joseph, S, Lions
6. Brandon Jones, S, Broncos
7. Marlon Humphrey, CB, Ravens
8. Taron Johnson, CB, Bills
9. Derwin James, S, Chargers
10. Ar’Darius Washington, DB, Ravens
11. Byron Murphy, CB, Vikings
12. Camryn Bynum, S, Vikings
13. Josh Metellus, S, Vikings
14. Harrison Smith, S, Vikings
15. Taylor Rapp, S, Bills
16. Justin Reid, S, Chiefs
17. Damar Hamlin, S, Bills
18. Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Buccaneers
19. Quentin Lake, S, Rams
20. Brandon Stephens, CB, Ravens
21. Christian Benford, CB, Bills
22. Xavier McKinney, S, Packers
23. Jeremy Chinn, S, Commanders
24. Alohi Gilman, S, Chargers
25. Trent McDuffie, CB, Chiefs
26. Bryan Cook, S, Chiefs
27. Jaylen Watson, CB, Chiefs
28. Cooper DeJean, CB, Eagles
29. Amik Robertson, CB, Lions
30. Rasul Douglas, CB, Bills

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.