Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Taylor carried 303 times for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs in 14 games last season. He missed Weeks 5 through 7 with what was described as a mild high-ankle sprain.

Taylor finished fifth league-wide in carries and fourth in rushing yards. On a per-game basis, he ranked first in carries and third in yards (behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry).

Taylor wasn’t as productive in the passing game, averaging 2.2 targets, 1.3 catches, and 9.7 yards per game.

Still, Taylor finished 13th among RBs in total PPR points and seventh in points per game. In half-PPR scoring, he ranked ninth in total points and fifth in points per game.

Usage & Role

On top of finishing fifth in total carries and first in carries per game, Taylor also ranked:

• 3rd in red-zone carries
• 6th in carries inside the 10-yard line
• 7th in carries inside the five

Taylor’s 11.4 expected rushing TDs ranked fifth league-wide, behind only Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson.

Taylor’s 2.2 targets per game ranked just 44th among RBs. His 7.6% target share in his 14 games ranked 39th.

Despite the underwhelming passing-game usage, Taylor finished fourth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and third in half-PPR.

Efficiency Metrics

Taylor’s 4.7 yards per carry ranked 11th among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year.

He wasn’t as impressive in advanced metrics, though. Among those 47 RBs, he ranked:

• 15th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
• 40th in yards after contact per attempt
• 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 43rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

The yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and PFF grade were career lows.

Taylor also ranked dead last among 37 RBs with 30+ targets in both yards per route (0.50) and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Taylor’s usage and production were noticeably different in games with QB Anthony Richardson vs. games with QB Joe Flacco. Here are the per-game splits:

Nine games with Richardson:

• 20.2 carries
• 97.7 rush yards
• 4.8 yards per carry
• 0.78 rush TDs
• 1.3 targets
• 0.8 catches
• 9.2 rec yards
• 0.1 rec TDs
• 15.3 expected PPR points per game
• 16.8 actual

Five games with Flacco:

• 24.2 carries
• 110.4 rush yards
• 4.6 YPC
• 0.8 rush TDs
• 3.8 targets
• 2.2 catches
• 10.6 rec yards
• 0 rec TDs
• 20.1 expected PPR PPG
• 22.1 actual

Taylor’s scoring averages with Richardson would have ranked 15th in expected PPR points and 11th in actual points. His averages with Flacco would have led all RBs in both expected and actual PPR points per game.

Historical Production & Trends

Taylor’s 17.6 PPR points per game last year were the second-most of his five-year career. But he’s scored 17+ points per game in three of five seasons and 15.6+ in four of five.

Here are Taylor’s career finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2020 - 10th
• 2021 - 2nd
• 2022 - 16th
• 2023 - 11th
• 2024 - 7th

Injury History

Taylor missed six games in 2022 with a right high-ankle sprain that required a cleanup surgery that offseason.

He was sidelined for the first four games of 2023, although it’s unclear how much that had to do with the previous ankle injury vs. the contract dispute between Taylor and the Colts.

A torn ligament in his right thumb later in 2023 needed to be surgically repaired and cost him three games.

Taylor missed three more games last year with another right high-ankle sprain.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Taylor returns as Indianapolis’ feature back in 2025.

The Colts only made minor moves in the backfield this offseason, letting Trey Sermon walk in free agency and adding free-agent Khalil Herbert and fifth-round rookie D.J. Giddens.

Herbert sports a career 4.8 yards-per-carry average. But he’s never topped 132 carries in a season and toted it a career-low 36 times last year. He signed a one-year, $1.38 million deal with the Colts, with less than half of that salary guaranteed. Herbert isn’t even a lock to make the final roster and isn’t a threat to Taylor’s role.

Giddens is the more intriguing addition. He totaled 2,569 rushing yards, 581 receiving yards, and 21 TDs at Kansas State over the last two seasons. The 212-pounder earned a 9.78 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.

Giddens looks like the favorite to win the No. 2 RB job for the Colts, making him the Taylor handcuff. But we’re not expecting him to tangibly impact Taylor’s 2025 usage.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics.

Considering Taylor’s usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value if Jones wins the starting job. If nothing else, Jones would be less of a threat to steal goal-line carries from Taylor.

On the offensive line, the Colts lost C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries to Minnesota in free agency. Kelly has missed 10 games over the last two seasons but still ranked 12th among 32 qualifying Cs in Pro Football Focus grades last year. Fries was off to a strong start last season but suffered a season-ending broken tibia in Week 5.

Fries and Kelly are expected to be replaced by G Matt Goncalves and C Tanor Bortolini, who were third and fourth-round picks, respectively, in 2024. Both showed some promise in spot-start duty last year.

OTs Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann and three-time All-Pro G Quenton Nelson return from last year’s offensive line, which ranked fourth in both ESPN run block win rate and Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades.

Despite the two new starters, this still looks like an above-average offensive line heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third seasons with the Colts. Considering Taylor’s usage and production the past two years, the continuity is good news for his 2025 fantasy outlook.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Taylor’s career lows in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade last year are concerns. But he was much better in all three metrics in 2023. And he’ll play the 2025 season at 26 years old.

Our aging curve research shows that RBs of Taylor’s caliber produce at 96% of their peak at age-26.