Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 10

   

Welcome to Week 10’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 10 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 10!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Bengals at Ravens (53.0)
2. 49ers at Buccaneers (50.5)
3. Lions at Texans (49.5)
4. Dolphins at Rams (48.5)
t-5. Bills at Colts (46.5)
t-5. Falcons at Saints (46.5)
t-5. Jets at Cardinals (46.5)

       

Lowest Game Totals

11. Broncos at Chiefs (42.0)
12. Giants vs. Panthers (40.5)
13. Titans at Chargers (39.0)
14. Patriots at Bears (38.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Ravens (29.5)
2. 49ers (28.5)
3. Lions (26.5)
t-4. Bills (25.25)
t-4. Eagles (25.25)

   

Lowest Implied Points

24. Cowboys (17.75)
25. Broncos (17.25)
26. Panthers (17.0)
27. Patriots (16.0)
28. Titans (15.75)

 

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Ravens (65.2)
t-2. Chiefs (64.5)
t-2. Eagles (64.5)
4. Texans (64.4)
5. Giants (64.3)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

22. Titans (60.6)
t-23. Broncos (60.5)
t-23. Jaguars (60.5)
25. Patriots (60.4)
26. Cardinals (59.8)
27. Cowboys (59.6)
28. Panthers (58.1)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Falcons at Saints (25.3 seconds)
2. Bills at Colts (25.7 seconds)
3. Patriots at Bears (26.1 seconds)
4. Steelers at Commanders (26.6 seconds)
5. Jets at Cardinals (26.9 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

10. Bengals at Ravens (28.5 seconds)
11. Vikings at Jaguars (29.0 seconds)
12. Lions at Texans (29.2 seconds)
13. Titans at Chargers (29.5 seconds)
14. Giants at Panthers (29.7 seconds)

    

Weather Concerns

Vikings at Jaguars

There's a chance of rain during this game and winds forecasted at 10-15 mph sustained with gusts around 20 mph. Worth noting, but not enough to adjust any projections.

Patriots at Bears

Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph. That's enough to impact at least some deep passes and kicks. We were already expecting a run-leaning attack from the Bears in this one. Hopefully you're not too invested in New England's passing game. Try to avoid both of these kickers.

       

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Ravens vs. Bengals (+88.6%)
2. Vikings at Jaguars (+75.7%)
3. Bills at Colts (+57.7%)
4. Commanders vs. Steelers (+51.5%)
5. Bengals at Ravens (+44.8%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

24. Panthers vs. Giants (-6.8%)
25. Texans vs. Lions (-9.7%)
26. Broncos at Chiefs (-11.4%)
t-27. Patriots at Bears (-25.5%)
t-27. Titans at Chargers (-25.5%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Sam Darnold at Jaguars (+62%)
2. Brock Purdy at Buccaneers (+34%)
3. Daniel Jones vs. Panthers (+27%)
4. Joe Burrow at Ravens (+26%)
5. Lamar Jackson vs. Bengals (+18%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Joe Flacco vs. Bills (-15%)
25. Kyler Murray vs. Jets (-16%)
26. Jayden Daniels vs. Steelers (-22%)
27. Matthew Stafford vs. Dolphins (-26%)
28. Drake Maye at Bears (-32%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Ravens vs. Bengals (+20.0%)
2. Falcons at Saints (+16.9%)
3. Eagles at Cowboys (+13.2%)
4. Giants vs. Panthers (+6.3%)
5. Lions at Texans (+1.6%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

24. Jets at Cardinals (-28.8%)
25. Chargers vs. Titans (-32.1%)
26. Jaguars vs. Vikings (-34.0%)
27. Bengals at Ravens (-38.9%)
28. Broncos at Chiefs (-39.1%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Giants vs. Panthers (+50%)
2. Vikings at Jaguars (+29%)
3. Colts vs. Bills (+26%)
4. Falcons at Saints (+18%)
5. Eagles at Cowboys (+17%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Titans at Chargers (-20%)
25. Jaguars vs. Vikings (-21%)
26. Cowboys vs. Eagles (-21%)
27. Lions at Texans (-22%)
28. Broncos at Chiefs (-40%)

   

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bengals at Ravens (+32%)
2. Vikings at Jaguars (+31%)
3. Jaguars vs. Vikings (+22%)
4. Texans vs. Lions (+20%)
5. 49ers at Buccaneers (+17%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Colts vs. Bills (-15%)
25. Chiefs vs. Broncos (-17%)
26. Broncos at Chiefs (-18%)
27. Chargers vs. Titans (-22%)
28. Patriots at Bears (-26%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Jaguars CBs Tyson Campbell and Montaric Brown

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Panthers CBs Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn

Falcons WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Rico Payton, and Alontae Taylor

Bears WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones

Panthers WRs Xavier Legette, David Moore, and Jalen Coker vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Nick McCloud, and Andru Phillips

Jaguars WR Parker Washington vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert vs. Eagles CBs Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Cardinals WRs Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams

Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce vs. Bills CBs Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford

Patriots WR Demario Douglas vs. Bears CB Kyler Gordon

       

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Giants at Panthers (+59%)
2. Bills at Colts (+48%)
3. Patriots at Bears (+32%)
4. 49ers at Buccaneers (+32%)
5. Vikings at Jaguars (+25%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Cardinals vs. Jets (-28%)
25. Cowboys at Eagles (-32%)
26. Dalton Schultz vs. Lions (-36%)
27. Panthers vs. Giants (-39%)
28. Lions at Texans (-43%)

   

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bears vs. Patriots (+97%)
2. Rams vs. Dolphins (+92%)
3. Chargers vs. Titans (+68%)
4. Falcons at Saints (+65%)
5. Panthers vs. Giants (+61%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Commanders vs. Steelers (-35%)
25. Texans vs. Lions (-48%)
26. Colts vs. Bills (-54%)
27. Steelers at Commanders (-70%)
28. Bengals at Ravens (-81%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Joshua Karty vs. Dolphins (+53%)
2. Blake Grupe vs. Falcons (+47%)
3. Cameron Dicker vs. Titans (+34%)
4. Greg Joseph vs. Panthers (+22%)
5. Younghoe Koo at Saints (+20%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Harrison Butker vs. Broncos (-19%)
25. Chris Boswell at Commanders (-22%)
26. Austin Seibert vs. Steelers (-33%)
27. Cam Little vs. Vikings (-41%)
28. Nick Folk at Chargers (-45%)