Joe Mixon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mixon signing with the Texans was the best-case scenario after being released by the Bengals.

He joins a prolific offense that gave Devin Singletary fantasy relevancy last season in OC Bobby Slowik’s offense. With C.J. Stroud and the WR weapons on the Texans, Mixon should have even more scoring opportunities.

Even if his receptions take a step back, Mixon should flirt with RB1 numbers again this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mixon’s 923 rushing yards ranked 13th among RBs. His 51 catches ranked 10th among RBs.
• He did not miss any games due to injury.
• Mixon ranked as the PPR RB7 in total fantasy points (242.2) and RB10 in points per game (12.0).
  • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded seven games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 19th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 49.4%.
• He played 69% of the Bengals offensive snaps last season. His per-game averages for the season :
  • 15.1 carries
  • 60.8 rushing yards
  • 0.53 rushing TDs
  • 3.76 targets
  • 3.06 catches
  • 22.1 receiving yards
  • 0.18 receiving TDs
• Mixon’s statistical success may have been a bit of a charade. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
  • 32nd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 39th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 27th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• His receiving metrics were slightly better. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Mixon ranked:
  • 15th in PFF receiving grade
  • 24th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• Mixon signed a three-year, $25.5 million contract with the Texans this offseason with $13 million guaranteed. His $9.875 million per year ranks sixth among RBs.
• He will play under HC Demeco Ryans and second-year OC Bobby Slowik.
• The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
• Mixon enters his eighth season at 28 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Mixon’s career will produce between 80 and 88% of his peak value at age-28.