Joe Mixon Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

A healthy Mixon was awesome for fantasy players last year.

He finished 17th among RBs in total PPR points; 15th in half-PPR. But he jumps to 10th in PPR points per game and ninth in half-PPR. And if we omit Weeks 2 and 18 when Mixon left early, he climbs to fifth in PPR points per game and fourth in half-PPR.

Mixon finished as a top-24 PPR RB in all but three of his 12 full games. That included six top-five finishes. Only Saquon Barkley had more!

Usage & Role

Mixon’s production was fueled mainly by strong usage. His 65% snap rate through Week 17 ranked 10th among RBs. And, if we just look at his 12 full games, he averaged:

• 19.3 carries per game
• 3.8 targets per game

Mixon drew 73.3% of Texans carries in those 12 outings. Only RB Kyren Williams had a bigger carry share on the season. Mixon’s 12.0% target share in his full games was a top-20 mark among RBs.

He also dominated goal-line carries, getting all 14 of Houston’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line.

Mixon’s 18.6 expected PPR points per game in his 12 full outings ranked second among RBs, behind only Alvin Kamara’s 19.8.

Efficiency Metrics

Mixon’s efficiency was not nearly as impressive as the volume. He averaged a slightly below average 4.1 yards per carry. And, among 47 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 19th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
• 29th in yards after contact per attempt
• 24th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Mixon was better in the passing game. He caught a career-low 69.2% of his targets but averaged 8.6 yards per catch. He ranked 16th in yards per route and 18th in PFF receiving grade among 37 qualifying RBs.

Offensive Context

Mixon’s big 2024 season came in spite of a disappointing year from Houston’s offense. QB C.J. Stroud took a step back, WRs Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell all missed time, and the Texans finished 22nd in total yards and 19th in points.

The offensive line didn’t do Mixon any favors, either. It ranked:

• 24th in Adjusted Line Yards
• 31st in ESPN run block win rate
• 27th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades.

Historical Production & Trends

Mixon is no stranger to RB1 production. Here are his career finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2017 - 32nd
• 2018 - 9th
• 2019 - 21st
• 2020 - 11th
• 2021 - 6th
• 2022 - 6th
• 2023 - 12th

Injury History

Mixon sprained an ankle in Week 2 last year and missed the next three games. He’s missed time in five of eight NFL seasons with knee, foot, and ankle injuries, plus two concussions.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Texans did not add to their backfield in free agency but made a surprisingly aggressive move in the draft. They traded the 179th overall pick of this year’s draft and a 2026 third-round pick to move up to 116th overall for RB Woody Marks.

Marks is one of the most accomplished pass-catching backs in the 2025 class, racking up 261 catches over five college seasons. His rushing profile is less impressive, though. Marks never reached 200 carries in a season and averaged a mediocre (for college) 5.0 yards per carry. He ranked 18th in 2024 PFF rushing grade among the 31 RBs at this year’s Combine.

Marks does not look like a significant threat to Mixon’s rushing volume. He could siphon some work in the passing game, but we’ll keep an eye on the rookie’s progress throughout the summer.

With the underwhelming Dameon Pierce joining Marks as backfield depth, Mixon is a good bet to handle another big workload in 2025.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He’ll hopefully get a healthier season from WR Nico Collins, who missed five games with a hamstring injury.

The rest of the WR corps is revamped, with Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel replacing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, who’s expected to miss the 2025 season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. We’ll see how rookies Higgins and Noel settle in, but a slow start could mean more reliance on Mixon.

The offensive line remains a concern in Houston. Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

This still looks like a bottom-10 unit, with the downside to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Age is the biggest worry with Mixon heading into 2025. He turns 29 in July — an age at which our aging-curve research says to expect 70% of peak production. That’s down from 80% at age-28.

Mixon’s overall numbers showed no signs of decline last year. His 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt was actually his best mark since 2019. His 2.92 yards after contact per attempt was his best since 2021.

But Mixon’s numbers tailed off over the second half of the season. Check out the splits:

• Weeks 1-9
  • 3.32 yards after contact per attempt
  • 0.18 missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 78.5 PFF rushing grade
• Weeks 10-18
  • 2.50 yards after contact per attempt
  • 0.13 missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 64.4 PFF rushing grade

Mixon bounced back in Houston’s two playoff games, though, totaling 194 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry. He averaged 2.86 yards after contact per attempt and 0.19 missed tackles forced per attempt.