Underrated Fantasy Football Players (2024)

 

9 Upside Bargains for Your Draft

You know what was fun last year? Having Raheem Mostert on your fantasy football team.

And if you read our underrated fantasy football players article last year, then you found the Dolphins RB listed.

You know what else? Mostert made the list again. (And he’s not the only repeat.)

These nine guys aren’t necessarily season-defining picks. They’re simply not going as early as they should.

That means value.

And capturing value in your fantasy football draft is always the best way to draft.

As Mostert showed us last year, sometimes that player delivers even more upside than you realized.

 

Nine Underrated Fantasy Football Players

• Jalen Hurts
• James Conner
• Javonte Williams
• Raheem Mostert
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Jahan Dotson
• Chris Godwin
• Mark Andrews
• Noah Fant

Our ADP Market Index works with player ADPs from multiple sources -- across formats -- and compares those market prices with our format-specific projections.

The result: You see which players we like better than the market does (hence, underrated) ... and which we're avoiding at cost.

 

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP Market Index (redraft): +16

A top 2 QB might seem like an odd place to start this list. But the top QBs are going later than they did last year, and that’s leaving value on the board.

Best ball drafting has given us the most data to this point in the year, and Hurts’ ADP looks even more striking there. In 2023, Underdog Fantasy drafters were taking the Philly QB at the end of Round 2 on average.

This year’s best ball ADP finds Hurts going at 4.03, the 39th overall player. He’s trailing Josh Allen by two ADP spots while sitting just five ahead of QB3 Lamar Jackson and nine ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

What’s Not to Like About Hurts?

Philly struggled through the second half of last season. That included scoring fewer than 20 points in three of the final five games – not including when starters rested in Week 18 – and then posting just 9 in a playoff loss at Tampa.

Yet even that span – Week 13 on – still found Hurts finishing top 6 among fantasy QBs three times and 10th another.

He trailed Allen by 2.2 points per game for the season but also finished 20 total points ahead of any other QB (depending on your format). Hurts also finished second behind Allen in points per game in 2022.

Philly then lost nothing from its skill positions, while Allen lost his top two wideouts. That leaves Hurts atop our 2024 QB rankings, in a market that’s undervaluing that range of QBs.

Allen, by the way, kicked off this list last year -- when he was not going first among QBs. (Mahomes was.)

 

---

 

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

ADP Market Index: +46

Just copy and paste this guy from season to season …

Conner entered last year off two straight RB9 finishes in PPR points per game. Yet drafters deemed him merely a RB3 by ADP. Conner answered by scoring as the RB7 in PPR points per game over his 12 healthy outings.

Sure, his propensity for getting hurt is annoying. And the injury risk is obvious. But you can insure against that as you draft. It’s even easier to do so with drafters once again leaving Conner on the board into RB3 territory on average.

Third-round rookie teammate Trey Benson sits just three spots behind him in best ball ADP. That’s entirely too small a gap.

 

---

 

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

ADP Market Index: +46

None of us really knows how this Denver backfield is going to sort out. Williams clearly led last year’s work but performed just OK coming off his ACL tear.

Jaleel McLaughlin flashed as a rookie and has generated buzz this offseason. The team also drafted Audric Estime and then signed undrafted free agent Blake Watson afterward.

Williams is no lock to maintain his lead from last year. But that’s clearly baked into his draft cost.

The Case for Williams

First off, this is a good situation for RB scoring. HC Sean Payton produced a top-22 RB in PPR points per game for 15 straight seasons before last year. Williams finished just 34th to lead 2023 Broncos. Yet even then, the team ranked sixth in total PPR points at the position.

Williams heads toward training camp as still the best bet to lead the backfield. He proved much more effective before his injury than last year (just off it):

If Williams hits this year, his ceiling sits much higher than his RB31 ADP. And you can pair him with another Broncos RB – McLaughlin RB54, Estime RB65 – if you want to hedge your bet.

 

---

  

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

ADP Market Index: +39

This veteran stands highly unlikely to repeat his 2023 production.

At age 31, Mostert:

• racked up an NFL-leading 21 TDs
• scored 5.3 more PPR points per game than his previous high
• and finished top 5 across fantasy formats

We all know he’s not doing that again. But the market “knows” it a little too much.

Mostert sits RB28 in best ball ADP.

That’s his optimal format. You get the spikes and don’t need to decide when to start him.

THAT market has him as nearly a mid-level RB3.

Expect Mostert to remain a “why not?” value throughout the summer. And if drafting a 32-year-old RB makes you queasy, just consider it a low-risk bet on Mike McDaniel’s run game.

In our Keeper Rankings, Mostert is an RB2 due to his upside. 

 

---

 

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans

ADP Market Index: +20

The hesitation here is understandable. Hopkins turned 32 in early June, and his team paid up for Calvin Ridley in free agency.

Let’s start by comparing how the new teammates have ranked in target share through the years. Our stats go back to 2018, Year 1 for Ridley and Year 6 for Hopkins:

That span started with Hopkins already established as Houston’s lead wideout; Ridley joining a Julio Jones-led Atlanta receiving corps. It also includes Hopkins playing with three different teams.

Some notes on specific seasons:

• Ridley’s 2020 bump came with Jones playing just nine games.
• Hopkins missed seven games and most of another in 2021.
• Ridley played just five games in 2021 and spent 2022 on league suspension.

Hopkins Has Hogged Targets

It’s impossible to look at any target measures and not notice Hopkins’ dominance. His 2021 downturn seemed worrisome … until he rebounded immediately.

And his previous five years of target shares proved strong as well:

• 2013: 14.4%
• 2014: 26.2% (with Andre Johnson leading)
• 2015: 31.0%
• 2016: 25.9%
• 2017: 33.1% (despite missing a game)

Perhaps Ridley Passes Him

Ridley won’t turn 30 until December, making him about 2.5 years younger than Hopkins.

That obviously puts Ridley closer to prime age. Our historical aging data says we should expect 96% of Ridley’s peak production if we call this his age-29 campaign vs. 86% of Hopkins’ peak for his age-32 season.

• Hopkins’ peak: 21.0 PPR points per game in 2018
  • 86% of that = 18.06
• Ridley’s peak: 18.7 PPR points per game in 2020
  • 96% of that = 17.95

Our WR rankings have Hopkins higher. We’ve seen him hog targets for three teams across many years. And he has shown the higher peak – at least to date.

Draft Them Both?

That said, our early ADP data from non-best ball 2024 drafting says both WRs look underrated.

Tennessee’s shift from HC Mike Vrabel to former Bengals OC Brian Callahan, plus the signings of Ridley, WR Tyler Boyd, and RB Tony Pollard just might bring a dramatic shift in pass rate.

There’s potential for this offense to support both Hopkins and Ridley as fantasy contributors.

 

---

 

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP Market Index: +19

Mike Evans had the big 2023. But Godwin didn’t exactly tank.

He finished:

• WR29 in total PPR points
• WR37 in points per game
• WR28 in expected PPR points per game

Even with Evans beating him in target share, Godwin still ranked 23rd among WRs.

He’s currently being drafted as WR37 in best ball.

Pretty simple case for a 28-year-old coming off his lowest fantasy scoring average of the past five years.

 

---

 

Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders

ADP Market Index: +17

Dotson’s had an unexciting start to his career. He finished 43rd among WRs in PPR points per game in an uneven rookie season. Then he dipped further as a sophomore, ranking outside the top 70. Dotson also sat just 75th among WRs in target share.

So how’s he underrated?

Call it a bet on his QB …

Washington replaced its coaching staff and expunged last year’s QB room. Sam Howell now backs up Geno Smith, while the Commanders will be starting No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels.

We’re pretty high on the rookie QB. And if he hits, he’s probably helping more than one pass-catcher.

Opportunity Available for Dotson

Washington also let three of last year’s top 5 target-earners leave …

Behind Terry McLaurin, Dotson will compete this year with: 

• rookie TE Ben Sinnott
• 33-year-old TE Zach Ertz
• 29-year-old RB Austin Ekeler
• rookie WR Luke McCaffrey

Daniels liked throwing downfield in college. And mobile QBs like him tend to favor passes beyond the dump-off/checkdown level.

None of this makes Dotson a lock to become fantasy-relevant. But with an ADP outside the top 60, it’s worth drafting him to find out.

 

---

  

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

ADP Market Index: +6

Andrews' fit here is similar to Jalen Hurts'.

Drafters aren’t chasing the top TEs as early as they were last year. But even after they start addressing the position, Andrews is coming off the board just fourth.

Perhaps that’s fair. Andrews finished just fifth in PPR points per game last season. But take away the game he left early with his knee injury, and that jumps to third. And two players who did rank ahead of him are not going ahead of him (T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram).

Should You Chase Youth?

Fantasy drafters always love the shiny new things, and that’s helping to push Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride ahead of Andrews in ADP this year.

Those picks might prove correct. But Andrews isn’t old.

He’ll turn 29 in September. And according to our historical aging research, you can expect Andrews to produce at 98% of his peak.

Take Proven Production Plus Bonus Draft Capital

That’d be pretty good for a guy who has ranked top 5 in points per game for five straight years, including a No. 1 overall season in 2021.

And Andrews’ ADP slide means you can get him as late as Round 5 (or late in the fourth), after spending your earlier picks on top-level players at other positions.

Would you rather have LaPorta plus Terry McLaurin … or Andrews plus Cooper Kupp?

 

---

 

Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks

ADP Market Index: +25

You might have already read about Fant in our Sleepers article. But the extreme value revealed by his Market Index makes him worth highlighting again.

The case against Fant is obvious: He hasn’t given us much so far. He finished just TE23 and TE39 in PPR points per game the past two years.

But Fant did rank TE11 and TE14 in his final two Denver seasons, before the trade to Seattle’s multiple-TE offense.

New System and Investment

Gone are Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson, and OC Shane Waldron. The new Seattle regime gave Fant $21 million over two years at the start of free agency.

He still must compete with potentially one of the league’s best WR trios: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

That’s a legit concern for Fant’s target upside. 

But JSN has yet to prove himself in the pros. Lockett’s heading into his age-32 season, historically a flashpoint for WR decline.

And most importantly: Fant’s lasting until the bottom of TE2 range. So you can take a no-risk shot on this former first-round pick who doesn’t turn 27 until November.

If he doesn’t work out … what have you lost?

  

You Won’t Miss Any Underrated Fantasy Football Players in the Draft War Room

How would you like to have an automated companion riding shotgun with you through every draft, pointing out top values at every turn?

You'll like the Draft War Room ...