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Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Overview

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid
Player Profile
TE BUF

Height

6'4"

Weight

240 lbs.

Experience

2 yrs.

Bye

12

Birthday

Oct 18, 1999

Age

25.3

College

Utah

NFL Draft Pick

2023 - Rd 1, Pk 25

Fantasy Rankings

Weekly
BYE -
Season
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Dynasty
TE7

2025 Projections

Rec

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Rec Yds

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Rec TDs

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Fantasy Pts

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DS 3D Projection

Our Thoughts

Dalton Kincaid's Preseason Player Analysis

Bottom Line

Kincaid earned Round 1 draft capital last year. He soon made an impact as a spot-start TE1, ultimately finishing 13th in PPR points per game.

2024 turns up boosted target opportunity with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis off the roster. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel joined over the offseason, but expect a more evenly distributed passing game.

Ultimately, Kincaid is fairly priced as the TE5.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Following a slow start, Kincaid became one of only four rookie TEs in league history to tally 70+ catches.
  • He did so in 16 games, missing only Week 6 (concussion).
  • Kincaid’s production took off in Week 7, when Dawson Knox battled a wrist injury that ultimately cost him the next five games.
    • Without Knox, Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches, 56.2 yards, and .4 TDs.
    • Kincaid finished as a top-13 fantasy TE in all five games.
    • In 14 games with Knox, Kincaid averaged 4.7 targets, 3.6 catches, 35.4 yards, and .07 TDs.
    • Kincaid finished as a top-13 TE three times in 11 regular season games alongside Knox.
  • Another dynamic was at play, as Buffalo swapped out OC Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady ahead of Week 11. Brady orchestrated a much more run-heavy approach.
    • Still, Kincaid’s targets per game essentially stayed the same under both OCs (5.6 to 5.8).
    • Kincaid’s target share under Dorsey: 16.9%
    • Kincaid’s target share under Brady: 18.0%
  • Overall, among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Kincaid ranked third in catch rate, 23rd in yards per catch, 16th in yards after catch per reception, and T-12th in yards per route run.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Joe Brady takes over as the full-time OC.
    • As noted above, Kincaid’s usage didn’t take a hit after the in-season coordinator change.
  • The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency.
    • That removes 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
  • Buffalo’s main WR additions include Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman.
    • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
    • His contract includes $15 million guaranteed, suggesting the Bills will feature him.
  • Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
    • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Kincaid final target count.
    • Coleman projects as a potential red zone factor at 6’3, 213 pounds. He was a strong TD producer in college
  • Kincaid saw just a 14.5% red zone target share last year -- 3rd on the Bills and just ahead of Dawson Knox (12.9%).

Advanced Stats

Forty Yard Dash

4.68

Forty Yard Dash Rank

76%

Speed Score

102.00

Speed Score Rank

70%

VIEW MORE ADVANCED STATS

Articles

Chris Godwin leads our look at fantasy football injuries: updates on key players

Fantasy Football Injuries: Latest Updates on Key Players (Feb 2025)

8:50am EST 2/5/25

We’re looking at players with offseason injury situations – and then forecasting their fantasy value for redraft and dynasty leagues.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentDalton Kincaid Scouting Report

Shark Bites

Dalton Kincaid TE BUF

9:17am EST 1/29/25

Dalton Kincaid Played Through Knee Injury?

Dalton Kincaid Played Through Knee Injury?

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid played through a torn PCL in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. The news comes via teammate Dawson Knox, who adds that Kincaid “aggravated” his other knee. “It’s insane what he’s played through,” Knox concluded. Kincaid missed three regular season games with an injury to his left knee and didn’t look right for most of 2024. He finished just 22nd in PPR points per game after slotting 13th as a rookie. A balanced offense hurts Kincaid’s chance of a 2025 rebound, but he has the talent to earn TE1 status.

Bills WR Amari Cooper is inactive for today’s home game against Miami. Cooper was listed as questionable after putting in limited practices all week. Without the veteran, Buffalo will rely on Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman. Shakir and Coleman are WR3s with upside, while Kincaid projects as a top-10 TE. Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel is active. He remains off the fantasy radar.

Bills HC Sean McDermott said Friday on WGR 550 in Buffalo that WR Khalil Shakir won't play Sunday against the Texans. Shakir sprained an ankle late in the Week 4 loss to Baltimore and has missed practice all week.

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) has been activated to the 53-man roster. That puts him in line to play vs. the Chiefs on Sunday for the first time since Week 7. Knox would be a desperation fantasy start, but his return dings TE Dalton Kincaid's target projection. It also takes WR Khalil Shakir out of the picture even in deep fantasy leagues.

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Chiefs. He was a full-go in practice all week, and HC Sean McDermott said Friday that Knox "has a good chance" to play Sunday. We currently have him projected in, which dings TE Dalton Kincaid’s fantasy outlook. The rookie averaged 7.4 targets over the last five games without Knox vs. 4.5 with Knox over his first six outings.

Schedule

Week Team SOS Fantasy

1

@ ARI

-14.3%

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2

MIA

8.2%

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3

@ JAC

20.9%

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4

BAL

2.3%

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5

HOU

-7.2%

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6

NYJ

-12.2%

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7

@ TEN

-15.8%

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8

SEA

0.1%

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9

@ MIA

8.2%

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10

IND

37.4%

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11

@ KC

16.2%

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12

13

@ SF

-16.4%

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14

LAR

16%

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15

DET

-19.8%

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16

@ NE

2.7%

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17

@ NYJ

-12.2%

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18

NE

2.7%

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