Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Kincaid totaled 44 catches, 448 yards, and 2 TDs in 13 games last year.

The second-year man finished as a top-12 PPR TE in only four games. He recorded a single top-five fantasy finish.

The downside was frightening, with Kincaid finishing at TE20 or worse in six games. Overall, he ranked TE30 in total PPR points; 22nd in points per game.

Usage & Role

Kincaid’s usage was affected by a Week 10 PCL sprain.

He saw 6.0 targets per game – a 20.4% share – from Week 1 to Week 9. He averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game (TE15), with an expected points per gamr figure of 10.4 (TE9).

However, over his final six games, Kincaid saw just 4.2 targets per game (14.5% share).

On the year, he finished a distant second in targets behind WR Khalil Shakir.

Efficiency Metrics

If we remove his mid-game departure in Week 10, here’s how Kincaid performed vs. 2023:

Kincaid improved his yards after catch per reception (6.5 vs. 4.3), despite his average target depth increasing by nearly two yards. He also saw his catchable target rate drop sharply from 89.9% (2023) to 69.0%.

Still, 2024 marked a clear step back for the former first rounder.

Offensive Context

Low pass volume party explains Kincaid’s poor production.

OC Joe Brady’s unit ranked 29th in pass rate, albeit 13th in pass rate over expected. Josh Allen played at an MVP-level, although he averaged a career-low 28.4 passes per game.

Buffalo finished a mid-pack 21st in offensive pace.

Amari Cooper joined the squad ahead of Week 7, but his arrival didn’t negatively impact Kincaid’s target share. The former Brown averaged 4.7 targets per game across seven appearances, inflated by a 14-target outing in Week 14.

Injury History

Beyond the Week 10 PCL sprain, Kincaid played through an early-season collarbone injury.

GM Brandon Beane stated his desire for Kincaid to add strength this offseason.

"He's going to have to continue to work on his play strength. He's not as built and muscular as, let's just say, Dawson [Knox] is, and so that's one of the nuances of this game," Beane said in January. "In college you don't play 17 games plus playoffs, so building your body up to withstand what it takes.”

Kincaid missed one game with a concussion in 2023. In college, he sustained a tailbone fracture (November 2022) and an A/C joint sprain (October 2022).

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Bills return their top-three target earners from 2024: WR Khalil Shakir, Kincaid, and WR Keon Coleman

TE Dawson Knox also returns after averaging 2 targets per game in 2024.

Buffalo added Josh Palmer in free agency, and his contract (3 years, $18 million guaranteed) suggests he’ll play a sizable role. But the addition could be more about adding another deep threat alongside Keon Coleman, rather than an indictment of Kincaid’s play.

Elijah Moore signed a one-year deal after back-to-back 100-target seasons in Cleveland. Perhaps the boost in QB play brings out his best, but Moore’s contract signals he’s not even a lock to make the team.

Shakir ultimately projects as the go-to target. Still, a healthy Kincaid brings the potential to be a co-No. 1.

Supporting Cast

Josh Allen remains the engine behind this unit. In 2024, he ranked top 10 in TD rate, success rate, QBR, and yards per attempt.

Per Pro Football Focus, he also led the league in Big Time Throw Rate. PFF defines big-time throws as passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

Allen’s ability to extend plays also boosts Kincaid’s big-play potential.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

Last year, he instilled an ‘everybody eats’ mantra. Here’s Allen with more on the approach repeating in 2025.

"We're returning a lot of guys,” Allen said in April. “That helps when guys are fresh and understand what Joe's trying to implement and what type of really, mantra - the 'everybody eats.' I think I have the hat on right now. That's not just a one-year thing."

Buffalo remains without a clear-cut No. 1 WR, so a fairly even distribution of targets wouldn’t surprise us. Expect game-to-game fluctuations with target volume, depending on health, performance, and matchups.