Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Despite posting a career-high 10 TDs last year, Sutton scored as just a lower-end WR3 across fantasy formats.

Jerry Jeudy’s departure could mean a slight bump in targets this season. But in a run-leaning offense piloted by rookie QB Bo Nix, Sutton does not have an exciting fantasy ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

• Sutton tallied 59 catches, 772 yards, and 10 TDs in 16 games last year.
• He finished 37th among WRs in PPR points per game, 35th in half-PPR, and 31st in non-PPR.
• Sutton’s ranks among WRs:
  • 41st in catches
  • 37th in yards
  • 4th in TDs
• He found the end zone in 10 of his 16 games.
• His 16.9% TD rate led all 61 WRs with 40+ catches last year.
• Sutton benefitted from strong usage near and in the end zone. He ranked:
  • 17th among WRs in red-zone targets
  • 6th in end-zone targets
• His 7.0 expected receiving TDs ranked 17th at his position.
• Sutton led the Broncos last year with 90 targets. But that ranked just 43rd among all WRs.
• He drew 20.2% of the team’s targets in his 16 games played – 37th at his position.
• Sutton was hurt by a slow-paced, run-leaning offense. The Broncos ranked:
  • 29th in plays
  • 24th in pass rate
  • 27th in pass attempts
• Sutton’s 1.66 yards per route run ranked 39th among 80 qualifying WRs. He ranked 34th with a 75.2 Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • Those were his best marks since 2020 and 2019, respectively.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Broncos traded WR Jerry Jeudy to the Browns this offseason. He’s ranked second on the team in targets each of the past two seasons, with shares of 17.5% and 17.0%.
• Denver returns WRs Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Brandon Johnson, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey and added WRs Troy Franklin and Josh Reynolds.
• It’s an underwhelming group, making Sutton the clear favorite to lead the team in targets again this season.
• He’s never been a target hog, though. Sutton’s 124 targets back in 2019 still stand as his career-high. His targets per game the last three years:
  • 2021 - 5.8
  • 2022 - 7.3
  • 2023 - 5.6
• Despite the strong red-zone and end-zone usage last year, Sutton is still unlikely to match last year’s 16.9% TD rate. He scored on just 5.9% of his catches over his first five NFL seasons. (League-wide WR TD rate is around 7.3%.)
• With the same coaching staff led by Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix likely at the helm, the Broncos project to be a run-leaning offense again in 2024.
• Nix is coming off two strong seasons at Oregon. But he struggled at Auburn prior to that and was generally viewed as a second-round prospect.
• Nix is unlikely to be a significant upgrade – and might be a downgrade – on Russell Wilson, who ranked a respectable 19th in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year.