Williams lands in upside spot

The Saints have agreed to a three-year, $12 million deal with RB Jamaal Williams, according to multiple reports. The first thing you need to do here is ignore that Williams led the NFL in rushing TDs last year. That won't happen again. Williams logged eight more carries inside the 5-yard line than anyone else in the league -- 12 more than any other RB. He scored on half of those carries. Williams also led the league in red-zone carries and TDs, even while ranking just fifth in team share of red-zone attempts (60%). Williams benefited from a stellar Lions O-line, a run-friendly offense and D'Andre Swift injuries. He does, however, find another upside path in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara is widely expected to get some suspension this year for his pending assault case. Whether it will come this year and how long it will be, though, remains unknown. The Saints clearly imported Williams to at least complement Kamara, as we've seen Latavius Murray and Mark Ingram do before. Bet on Kamara ceding a larger share of carries than he did last year, as he hits his seventh NFL season. That's enough to make Williams a fine pick in his current low-RB3 ADP range. And if Kamara misses significant time, Williams could easily reach high-end RB2 production.