Kellen Moore and Play Volume Could Make the Saints a Sneaky Fantasy Offense

  

 

New Orleans Saints 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

 

Key Additions

• QB Tyler Shough
• RB Devin Neal
• RB Cam Akers
• WR Brandin Cooks

 

Key Departures

• QB Derek Carr
• RB Jamaal Williams
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

 

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Dennis Allen and OC Klint Kubiak out
• HC Kellen Moore and OC Doug Nussmeier in

 

Tyler Shough

Bottom Line: Don't Touch Him in 1-QB Leagues

Shough is not an impressive prospect on paper. The NFL seemed relatively high on him, though. And he has a good chance to win the starting job for a Saints offense that we think will be better than expected. That makes Shough worth considering late in superflex and 2-QB drafts.

2024 Summary

Lengthy College Career Underwhelmed

Shough had a long, injury-riddled college career. He spent three seasons at Oregon, three at Texas Tech, and one at Louisville.

His overall production doesn’t jump off the page. Shough completed 63.0% of his career passes and topped a 63.5% completion rate just once. He averaged a solid 8.2 yards per attempt for his career and registered a 59-to-23 TD:INT ratio.

Injuries limited Shough to just 30 appearances over his first six college seasons. He finally stayed healthy at Louisville last year, posting career highs with 3,195 passing yards and 23 TDs. Shough’s 87.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade ranked fifth among 128 qualifying QBs.

Shough ran for just 132 yards last year but averaged 42 rushing yards per game over the previous four seasons.

Good Size and Arm, But His Game Has Shortcomings

Shough has prototypical size at 6’5, 219 pounds. He has an efficient release with plus arm strength and good timing.

Shough struggles when pressured, though. And his decision-making comes and goes.

Three Serious Injuries Cloud His Outlook

Shough broke his collarbone in both 2021 and 2022. Then he broke his left leg in 2023.

2025 Expectations

A Surprisingly Easy Path to the Starting Job

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves New Orleans’ QB depth chart wide open. Shough will compete for the job with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener.

Rattler was a fifth-round pick in 2024. He saw action in seven games last season, completing 57.0% of his passes at 5.8 yards per attempt. His 49.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade ranked 44th among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.

Haener was a 2023 fourth-rounder. He didn’t see the field as a rookie but threw 39 passes across five appearances last year. He completed just 46.2% of those throws and matched Rattler with 5.8 yards per attempt.

Shough isn’t guaranteed the starting job. But it’ll be disappointing if he can’t beat out Rattler and Haener. The Round 2 draft capital helps his chances.

Saints Skill-Position Talent Helps Shough's Case

Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed return as New Orleans’ top two WRs. They missed a combined 20 games last year but are healthy now.

Olave has averaged 65.8 yards per game through three NFL seasons, averaging over 2.0 yards per route in all three. Shaheed has improved his yards per game across each of his three NFL seasons, topping out at 58.2 last year. His 10.4 yards per target leads all 163 active WRs with 100+ career targets. This is one of the league’s more underrated WR duos.

The depth chart is shaky behind Olave and Shaheed, with an over-the-hill Brandin Cooks the likely No. 3 WR. 

But the Saints have a serviceable TE in Juwan Johnson and one of the game’s best pass-catching RBs in Alvin Kamara.

Last year’s Saints ranked dead last in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade and 29th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. They spent the ninth overall pick of this spring’s draft on Texas’ Kelvin Banks, who’s penciled in as the starting LT. And they’ll look to get a better second season from 2024 first-round OT Taliese Fuaga.

This unit has the potential to take a step forward this season, but consider it a major question mark for now.

Kellen Moore Brings High-Octane History

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC. 

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel.

His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

It’s good news for Shough’s 2025 fantasy prospects. More plays mean more chances for fantasy points.

 

Alvin Kamara

Bottom Line: Buy This Bargain RB1

Kamara ranked fifth among RBs in PPR points per game last year; first in expected PPR points per game. There are risks heading into 2025: His age, a new QB, and a new coach. But those are more than baked into his fourth- or fifth-round price tag. Highlight Kamara as a value target in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Kamara a Steady RB1

Kamara ran for 950 yards and six scores on 228 carries across 14 games last year. He added another 543 yards and two TDs on 68 catches.

Kamara was knocked out of Week 15 with a groin injury and missed the final three games of the season. He finished ninth among RBs in total PPR points and fifth in points per game. If we omit Week 15, Kamara climbs to fourth in points per game.

He was a steady weekly producer, with no finish worse than RB33 in PPR points. Kamara scored as a top-24 RB in 13 of 14 games and as a top-12 RB six times.

Most Valuable Role In Fantasy Football?

Kamara led the position with 19.6 expected PPR points per game, 1.6 points clear of Bijan Robinson at No. 2. That jumps to 20.3 expected points per game if we remove Week 15.

Kamara averaged 16.3 carries per game, which ranked ninth among RBs and were the second-most of his career. He tied for just 23rd with 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, in part because New Orleans’ offense wasn’t very good and in part because he lost some work to Taysom Hill.

Kamara ranked 22nd among RBs with 6.9 expected rushing TDs.

His role in the passing game really boosted his fantasy value. Kamara led all RBs with 89 targets (despite missing three games). His 20.4% target share through Week 14 also led the position.

Efficiency was a Mixed Bag

Kamara averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year. It was his best mark since 2020 but ranked just 26th among 49 RBs with 90+ attempts.

He was worse in blocking-independent metrics, ranking:

• 36th in rush yards over expected
• 37th in yards after contact per attempt
• 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt

Kamara at least finished 19th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

He was more efficient as a receiver. Among 37 RBs with 30+ targets last year, Kamara ranked:

• 2nd in yards per route
• 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 20th in ESPN receiver score

Kamara Produced in Spite of Environment

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play.

They were better in QB Derek Carr’s 10 games, averaging 350 total yards and 24.5 points per game. That sank to 277 yards and 13.3 points in seven games without Carr.

Kamara averaged 20.4 PPR points per game with Carr vs. 18.2 in three full games without him.

Helpful Fantasy Asset, Even in Decline

Kamara’s 19.0 PPR points per game last year were his most since 2020. He remained very relevant in the three years in between, though, finishing:

• RB7 in PPR points per game in 2021
• RB13 in 2022
• RB5 in 2023

Kamara has actually posted his four highest carries per game in the last four seasons. His efficiency has waned from where it was early in his career. But his 2.76 yards after contact per attempt this past season was his best since 2021.

Kamara has always been a huge part of New Orleans’ passing attack. He’s tallied 3.6+ catches per game in all eight seasons, with 4.9+ in six of them, including each of the last two. While his receiving efficiency has generally trended downward, his 1.75 yards per route last year was his best mark since 2020.

Injuries Have Been a Problem

Kamara has missed time with injury in five of his eight NFL seasons. His injury history includes:

• a concussion in 2017 (did not miss any games)
• a sprained ankle and knee in 2019
• a sprained MCL in 2021
• fractured rib cartilage in 2022
• a sprained ankle in 2023
• a groin injury in 2024

Kamara also needed knee surgery in 2012, forcing him to take a redshirt season at Alabama. And he suffered a Grade 2 LCL sprain while at Tennessee.

2025 Expectations

Kamara's Role Shouldn't Change Much

The Saints made only minor moves in the backfield this offseason, re-signing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a one-year, $1.17 million deal, adding Devin Neal in the sixth round of the draft, and inking Cam Akers to a one-year deal in June. They join 2023 third-rounder Kendre Miller, who’s coming off a second straight injury-riddled.

Kamara’s standing as clear lead back does not seem threatened, especially after he signed a two-year, $24.5 million extension last October. He’s the league’s fifth-highest-paid RB in terms of average annual salary.

Big QB Question, But Nice Supporting Cast

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year. QB is a big question for the Saints and a potential drain on Kamara’s fantasy value.

He’ll at least be running behind a promising offensive line. Last year’s Saints ranked:

• 11th in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades
• 19th in ESPN’s run block win rate
• 22nd in adjusted line yards

New Orleans used the ninth overall pick of this spring’s draft on Texas’ Kelvin Banks, who’s penciled in as the starting LT. And 2024 first-round OT Taliese Fuaga is a candidate for a second-year leap.

New HC Brings Strong Resume

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC. 

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel.

His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

It’s good news for Kamara’s 2025 fantasy outlook. More plays mean more chances for fantasy points.

Moore has also helped produce some strong RB fantasy seasons.

• 2019: Ezekiel Elliott RB5 in PPR points per game
• 2020: Elliott RB16 in PPR points per game
• 2021: Elliott RB19 in PPR points per game
• 2022: Tony Pollard RB10, Elliott RB23 in PPR points per game
• 2023: Austin Ekeler RB20 in PPR points per game
• 2024: Saquon Barkley RB1 in PPR points per game

Past His Prime, But Will It Matter?

Kamara turns 30 in July, well past prime for RBs. Our aging-curve research says that RBs of Kamara’s caliber, on average, produce at 70-75% of their peak at age-30.

Kamara has been living off volume more than efficiency for the past few years now, though. If he maintains similar volume in 2025, he can continue scoring plenty of fantasy points, even if he’s inefficient.

 

Kendre Miller

Bottom Line: Don't Forget About This Handcuff

Miller has been unable to stay healthy through two NFL seasons. But he’s flashed exciting talent when on the field and has a clear path to the No. 2 RB job this year. That makes him worth keeping in mind as a late-round flier or waiver-wire add.

2024 Summary

Injury Wrecked His Season

Injuries limited Miller to just six games last year. He finished with 39 carries for 148 yards and one TD, adding another 33 yards on five receptions.

Stuck Behind Kamara When He Played

Miller played behind RB Alvin Kamara in his first four games of the season (Weeks 7, 8, 14, and 15). He tallied 28 carries and five targets across those outings. Both marks ranked second behind Kamara.

Kamara missed Week 16, but Miller worked in a three-RB committee alongside Jordan Mims and Jamaal Williams, handling just eight carries and two targets.

Kamara remained out for Week 17, but Miller left in the first half of that one with a concussion.

Here's Why You Should Still Care

Miller managed just 3.8 yards per carry last year, but he fared much better in advanced metrics. He ranked 27th among 91 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 19th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Saints Offense Didn't Help

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play.

They were better in QB Derek Carr’s 10 games, averaging 350 total yards and 24.5 points per game. That sunk to 277 yards and 13.3 points in seven games without Carr.

Impressive College Player; Injury-Marred Pro

Miller’s rookie season was also marred by injuries. He carried 41 times for 156 yards and one score across eight games. Although he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, Miller again impressed with 3.12 yards after contact per attempt.

The Saints took him in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an impressive junior season at TCU: 1,399 rushing yards and 17 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry. Miller averaged 6.7 yards per carry across his three college seasons.

Miller Has Already Missed 20 Games

Miller sprained an MCL in his final college game and was unable to work out in the pre-draft process. 

He’s missed 20 games over the past two years with injuries to both hamstrings, a sprained ankle, and a concussion.

2025 Expectations

No. 2 RB Job Remains Available

The Saints made only minor moves in the backfield this offseason, re-signing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a one-year, $1.17 million deal, adding Devin Neal in the sixth round of the draft, and inking Cam Akers to a one-year deal in June.

Alvin Kamara returns as the clear lead back, but he’s 30 now and has missed time with injury in five of his eight NFL seasons.

Miller has every opportunity to win the No. 2 RB job. That likely would not be enough to make him a standalone fantasy option, but he’d have handcuff appeal.

Promising O-line Might Overshadow Questionable QB

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year. QB is a big question for the Saints.

Miller will at least be running behind a promising offensive line. Last year’s Saints ranked:

• 11th in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades
• 19th in ESPN’s run block win rate
• 22nd in adjusted line yards

New Orleans used the ninth overall pick of this spring’s draft on Texas’ Kelvin Banks, who’s penciled in as the starting LT. And 2024 first-round OT Taliese Fuaga is a candidate for a second-year leap.

New HC Should Boost Offense

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC. 

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel.

His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

That boosts Miller’s upside. More plays mean more chances for fantasy points.

 

Chris Olave

Bottom Line: Olave's Price Makes Him Worth the Risk

Olave carries plenty of risk in 2025 fantasy drafts. He’s sustained five documented concussions and will likely be catching passes from second-round rookie QB Tyler Shough this year. But he’s impressed in terms of target volume and efficiency through three NFL seasons, remains the Saints’ top WR, and is just hitting his prime at 25 years old. Olave has WR2 upside and is a value target in drafts this summer.

2024 Summary

He Scored as a WR3 (When Healthy)

A pair of concussions limited Olave to eight games -- just six full games -- last year. He finished with 32 catches for 400 yards and one TD.

Olave officially finished 57th among WRs in PPR points per game. But if we omit the two games he left early, he climbs to 36th.

Olave finished as a top-26 PPR WR in four of his six full games.

Volume Proved Plentiful

Olave averaged 7.0 targets per game on a 23.6% target share across his six full games. Both marks led the team over that span.

Olave ranked 36th among WRs in expected PPR points per game in his healthy outings.

Lower aDOT Increased Efficiency

Olave registered a career-low 10.3-yard average target depth last year. But that helped him to career bests in catch rate (72.7%) and yards per target (9.1). Olave ranked 27th in yards per target among 106 qualifying WRs. His 2.13 yards per route was good for 22nd.

Saints Offense Hurt His Production

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play. The passing game ranked:

• 23rd in yards
• 20th in TDs
• 30th in completion rate
• 22nd in yards per attempt

Olave at least had a healthy QB Derek Carr for five of his six games. Olave averaged 4.4 catches and 55 yards with Carr and went for 107 yards on 8 receptions in his one game without him.

Olave in Good Company Over Last Three Years

Olave’s 9.8 PPR points per game last year were easily a career low. He scored 13.3 as a rookie in 2022, finishing 27th among WRs. He improved to 14.3 points per game and a WR21 finish in 2023.

Olave has topped a 23.5% target share and 2.05 yards per route in each of his three NFL seasons. Only four other WRs have seen 40+ targets and averaged 2.05+ yards per route in each of the last 3 years:

• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Concussion History Adds Risk

Olave has sustained five documented concussions: one at Ohio State in 2020, one as a rookie in 2022, one in 2023, and two last year. It leaves him at elevated risk of future head injuries.

Olave also missed one game in 2023 with a right ankle injury.

2025 Expectations

Olave Will Remain Big Part of Passing Game

The Saints swapped out Marques Valdes-Scantling for Brandin Cooks this offseason. That’s, at best, a lateral move at this point of Cooks’ career. He hasn’t reached 700 yards in a season since 2021 and averaged a career-low 25.9 yards per game last year.

Otherwise, New Orleans made no significant moves in the pass-catching corps. WR Rashid Shaheed, RB Alvin Kamara, and TE Juwan Johnson return from last year’s squad. Olave remains the favorite to lead this team in targets.

QB Play is the Big Question

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year. 

Shough spent six injury-plagued years in college but is coming off a nice 2024, posting career highs with 3,195 passing yards and 23 TDs. His 87.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade ranked fifth among 128 qualifying QBs.

Shough is not lacking in terms of arm talent, but he’s a big question mark for Olave and the Saints heading into 2025.

Kellen Moore's Arrival Adds Upside

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC. 

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel.

His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

Moore is no stranger to producing high-end fantasy WRs.

Here’s his history:

• 2019 - Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup finish as top-18 WRs in PPR points per game
• 2020 - Cooper ranks 22nd in PPR points per game
• 2021 - CeeDee Lamb takes over as top dog and finishes WR23
• 2022 - Lamb climbs to eighth among WRs in total PPR points
• 2023 - Keenan Allen ranks third in PPR points per game (Mike Williams finishes 10th, albeit in just three games)
• 2024 - A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith finish as top-17 WRs in PPR points per game

Olave in His Prime

Olave will play this season at 25 years old. That’s right around peak age for WRs, according to our aging-curve research.

 

Rashid Shaheed

Bottom Line: Talent & Role Make Him A Top Value

Shaheed was off to a strong start before last year’s knee injury, drawing a 23% target share and ranking 23rd among WRs in PPR points through Week 6. There’s a big QB question in New Orleans after Derek Carr’s retirement, but Shaheed will continue to play a significant role in new HC Kellen Moore’s offense. He’s a value target at his WR5-level price tag.

2024 Summary

Shaheed's Season Short But Productive

Shaheed’s 2024 campaign was cut short after just six games by a torn meniscus.

He tallied 20 catches for 349 yards and three TDs across his six outings, ranking 23rd among WRs in PPR points. He finished as a top-18 WR in four of six weeks.

Playing Time and Volume Proved Strong

Shaheed ran a route on a team-high 87% of pass plays across his six games. His 41 targets over that span also led the team and were 23.3% of the Saints’ total. (Chris Olave missed almost all of Week 6, but Shaheed out-targeted him 34 to 28 over the first five games.)

Shaheed ranked 24th among all WRs in targets and 26th in target share through Week 6. 

He was regularly used deep downfield, registered an 18.1-yard average target depth that was a career high and fourth biggest among 106 qualifying WRs last year. 15 of Shaheed’s 41 total targets (36.6%) came 20+ yards downfield. 

Shaheed ranked 26th among WRs in expected PPR points per game through Week 6.

WR Upped the Efficiency But Left Room for More

Shaheed caught just 48.8% of his targets last year but averaged 17.5 yards per catch, no surprise considering the big average target depth.

His 8.5 yards per target was a career low but still ranked 40th among 106 WRs with 40+ targets last year. Shaheed’s 2.04 yards per route ranked 29th.

And that was despite poor efficiency on deep balls (which tend to be volatile from season to season). Shaheed caught just three of his 15 targets of 20+ yards. That 20% catch rate ranked 91st among 113 WRs with 5+ deep targets. 

Shaheed caught 18 of 28 deep targets (64.3%) over his first two NFL seasons.

New Orleans Not Fertile Ground for Fantasy Points

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play. The passing game ranked:

• 23rd in yards
• 20th in TDs
• 30th in completion rate
• 22nd in yards per attempt

Shaheed at least had QB Derek Carr for his first five games. He averaged 3.8 catches, 67.6 yards, and 0.6 TDs across those games but caught just one of seven targets for 11 yards without Carr in Week 6.

His Efficiency is No Fluke

Shaheed has improved his PPR points per game across his three NFL seasons. He finished 61st among WRs in PPR points per game as a rookie and climbed to 51st in 2023.

Shaheed has been an efficient pass catcher throughout his career, averaging 1.97 yards per route and 10.4 yards per target. That latter mark leads the 164 active WRs with 100+ career targets -- right ahead of Ladd McConkey, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown.

2024 Knee Injury Not a Concern

Shaheed had his meniscus repaired in mid-October but was back on the field and looked “completely recovered” by May OTAs, according to The Times-Picayune's Matthew Paras. It doesn’t seem like the injury will impact Shaheed’s 2025.

He missed two games in 2023 with a thigh injury and dealt with a toe injury during training camp last year.

2025 Expectations

Expect Another Big Role

The Saints swapped out Marques Valdes-Scantling for Brandin Cooks this offseason. That’s, at best, a lateral move at this point of Cooks’ career. He hasn’t reached 700 yards in a season since 2021 and averaged a career-low 25.9 yards per game last year.

Otherwise, New Orleans made no significant moves in the pass-catching corps. WR Chris Olave, RB Alvin Kamara, and TE Juwan Johnson return from last year’s squad.

We’re projecting Olave to lead the team in targets this year, but Shaheed is the clear No. 2 WR.

Will QB Make It Worthwhile?

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year. 

Shough spent six injury-plagued years in college but is coming off a nice 2024, posting career highs with 3,195 passing yards and 23 TDs. His 87.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade ranked fifth among 128 qualifying QBs.

Shough is not lacking in terms of arm talent, but he’s a big question mark for Shaheed and the Saints heading into 2025.

New HC Should Boost Offense

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC. 

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel.

His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

Moore is no stranger to producing high-end fantasy WRs, either.

Here’s his history:

• 2019 -- Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup finish as top-18 WRs in PPR points per game
• 2020 -- Cooper ranks 22nd in PPR points per game
• 2021 -- CeeDee Lamb takes over as top dog and finishes WR23
• 2022 -- Lamb climbs to eighth among WRs in total PPR points
• 2023 -- Keenan Allen ranks third in PPR points per game (Mike Williams finishes 10th, albeit in just three games)
• 2024 -- A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith finish as top-17 WRs in PPR points per game

  

Juwan Johnson

Bottom Line: Real-Life Starter, Fantasy Backup

Johnson got a new three-year deal this offseason, locking him into a significant role in new HC Kellen Moore’s offense. But he’s yet to finish better than TE18 in PPR points per game and is unlikely to do so in 2025 in what figures to be a subpar Saints offense.

2024 Summary

Johnson Was a Pure TE2

Johnson caught 50 balls for 548 yards and three TDs in 17 games last year. He tied for 18th among TEs in catches and ranked 15th in yards.

Johnson finished 17th at the position in total PPR points but just 21st in points per game. He scored as a top-12 TE three times (although he had two other weeks at TE13).

Usage Spiked Without Taysom Hill

Johnson ran a route on 66% of Saints pass plays last year; 24th among TEs. He climbed from a 60% route rate through Week 13 to 80% over his final five games. That coincided with Taysom Hill’s season-ending knee injury. Only 10 TEs registered a higher route rate over those last five weeks.

We saw a similar jump in Johnson’s targets:

First 12 games:

• 3.3 targets per game
• 10.3% share

Last 5 games:

• 5.4 targets per game
• 15.8% share

Johnson climbed from 33rd among TEs in expected PPR points per game through Week 13 to 15th over the final five weeks.

Efficiency Hit Career Highs

Johnson registered a career-best 75.8% catch rate last year and averaged 11.0 yards per catch. His 8.3 yards per target was also a personal best and ranked 10th among 36 TEs with 40+ targets.

Johnson finished 22nd among those 36 TEs in yards per route, although he climbed to 10th out of 38 qualifiers over the final five weeks.

Saints Offense Worked Like an Anchor

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play. The passing game ranked:

• 23rd in yards
• 20th in TDs
• 30th in completion rate
• 22nd in yards per attempt

The offense was significantly better in QB Derek Carr’s 10 games, but he was out for the final four games of the season when Johnson’s role grew.

Mediocrity You Can Depend On

Johnson has hovered between 7.5 and 8.5 PPR points per game over the last three seasons. His finishes among TEs in PPR points per game:

• 2022 -- 18th
• 2023 -- 22nd
• 2024 -- 21st

Johnson’s yards per route run have also held steady: 1.39, 1.19, 1.34. But he did earn a career-best 71.3 Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.

Injury History Not Scary

Johnson missed one game in 2022 with a sprained ankle and four in 2023 after injuring his calf in warmups ahead of Week 4.

He underwent foot surgery in June of last year but was activated from the PUP list in mid-August and was ready by Week 1.

2025 Expectations

Role Safe With New Contract

The Saints signed Johnson to a three-year, $30.75 million deal in March. It makes him the league’s 12th-highest-paid TE in average annual salary and pretty much guarantees Johnson will play a significant role.

Taysom Hill remains on New Orleans’ roster but will likely miss most of the season after suffering a torn ACL and other damage to his left knee in December.

QB Play Could Be a Problem

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year. 

Shough spent six injury-plagued years in college but is coming off a nice 2024, posting career highs with 3,195 passing yards and 23 TDs. His 87.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade ranked fifth among 128 qualifying QBs.

Shough is not lacking in terms of arm talent, but he’s a big question mark for Shaheed and the Saints heading into 2025.

Kellen Moore Will Boost the Offense

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC. 

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel.

His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

Moore’s offenses have produced a top-12 TE in PPR points per game in three of six seasons (Dalton Schultz in 2020 and 2021 and Dallas Goedert last year).

    

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