Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Why the Panthers Might Finally Matter for Fantasy in 2025

Carolina Panthers 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• RB Rico Dowdle
• RB Trevor Etienne
• WR Tetairoa McMillan

Key Departures

• None

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Bryce Young

Bottom Line: There's Sneaky Upside in Year 3

After an ugly rookie season and bad start to 2024, Young was much better over the second half of last season. Now in year three with an improved supporting cast, he’s capable of taking another leap in 2025. And he has sneaky rushing upside. Young should only be drafted as a QB2, but he has the potential to deliver QB1 production in spurts.

2024 Summary

Bad Start Gave Way to Promising Finish

Young followed a rough rookie season with an even rougher start to 2024. He totaled just 245 passing yards with 0 TDs and three INTs on 4.4 yards per attempt over the first two games of last season.

Young was benched for QB Andy Dalton for the next five games. He took back over in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way.

Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs
• 22.3 rushing yards
• 0.5 rushing TDs

Young ranked 17th among QBs in fantasy points per game over that stretch.

Young's Efficiency Trending Up

Young’s efficiency metrics improved across the board over his final 10 games vs. the first 18 of his career:

Young still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

And, most impressively, he led those 35 QBs in PFF’s Big Time Throw Rate, which is defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

QB Didn't Get Much Help

The 2024 Panthers ranked 29th in total yards and 23rd in points. It was a slow-paced offense, ranking 25th in neutral pace and 31st in plays per game.

Carolina leaned toward the run, finishing 19th in pass rate over expected and 22nd in neutral pass rate. But negative game scripts boosted them to 11th in overall pass rate.

The team notably went pass-heavier in the red zone, though, ranking:

• 4th in red-zone pass rate
• 5th in red-zone pass rate over expected

That helped Carolina finish 16th in total pass TDs, despite ranking 30th in both pass yards and yards per attempt.

Young got very little help from his pass-catching corps last year. The Panthers ranked dead last in Pro Football Focus’ team receiving grades. 6.0% of Young’s passes were dropped -- the 16th-highest rate among 39 qualifying QBs.

The Rookie Season Was Historically Bad

Young had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate. Those were both bottom-12 marks among 697 QB seasons of 300+ pass attempts since 2000.

Young finished 35th among QBs in fantasy points per game in 2023.

A Relatively Light Injury History

Young missed one game as a rookie with a sprained ankle. He also missed a game in his final college season with a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder.

2025 Expectations

Panthers Still Believe In Young

The Panthers re-signed QB Andy Dalton to a two-year, $8 million deal this offseason. He’s a quality insurance policy in case Young reverts to 2023 form. But the youngster is locked in as Carolina’s starter to open the season.

“Bryce Young has shown enough that he is the franchise quarterback here,” HC Dave Canales said shortly after last season ended. “He’s gonna be our starter going forward. He earned that, he won that job, and took it and ran with it.”

“I think he’s just scratching the surface, and I know that he’s gonna put the work in to get better and better,” GM Dan Morgan said in January. “I’m just really excited about his future, and I’m excited for him. We all feel really good about him being our QB of the future.”

Supporting Cast Got Better

Young’s pass-catching corps has the potential to be much better in 2025.

The Panthers used the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Tetairoa McMillan. The Arizona product turned in three strong seasons of college production, leading his team with eight receiving TDs as a true freshman and then racking up 2,721 yards and 18 TDs over the last two years.

Carolina also returns WRs Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Adam Thielen. Legette had an underwhelming rookie season but is a candidate for a year-two leap after going 32nd overall in the 2023 draft. Coker went undrafted last year but flashed with 478 yards on 14.9 yards per catch across 11 games. Thielen is the veteran of the group, but the 35-year-old still has some gas in the tank. He averaged 61.5 yards per game last year, including 72.3 over his final seven games with Young.

The Panthers return all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked:

• 15th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grades
• 30th in ESPN pass block win rate

They’ll hope to get a healthier year from C Austin Corbett, who missed the final 12 games of last season, and a step forward from fourth-year LT Ikem Ekwonu.

Coaching Continuity Should be a Plus

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season.

Canales has deployed balanced offenses across the past two seasons. The 2023 Bucs ranked 13th with a 58.9% pass rate, and last year’s Panthers finished ninth at 58.7%.

We currently project the 2025 Panthers for a 58.5% pass rate.

Don't Sleep on the Rushing

Young is capable of taking another step forward as a passer this season. 

He also projects for sneaky rushing production. He averaged 15.8 rushing yards per game as a rookie and 20.1 across his 12 starts last year.

Young’s 6.1 yards per carry ranks third among 35 QBs with 50+ carries over the last two seasons.

Chuba Hubbard

Bottom Line: Hubbard's a RB2 Target with RB1 Upside

Hubbard emerged as a workhorse last year, finishing 13th among RBs in PPR points per game. His rushing role should be safe in 2025, but he could lose some passing-down snaps after struggling as a receiver last year. Still, Hubbard looks like a solid RB2 with upside into RB1 range.

2024 Summary

The RB1 No One Saw Coming

Hubbard carried 250 times for 1,195 yards and 10 TDs across 15 games last year. His 79.7 rushing yards per game ranked seventh league-wide.

Hubbard added another 171 yards and one TDs on 43 receptions.

He finished 15th among RBs in total PPR points and 13th in points per game.

Hubbard spent the first two weeks of the season in a near-even timeshare with RB Miles Sanders. He got workhorse usage over his final 13 games, though. Hubbard ranked eighth in PPR points per game over that stretch.

Hubbard Emerged as Panthers Workhorse

Hubbard played 56% of Carolina’s offensive snaps and totaled 16 carries on a 42.1% share over the first two games of the season.

From Week 3 through 16, he:

• Played 80% of the offensive snaps
• Averaged 18.0 carries per game
• Handled 71.1% of Panthers carries
• Averaged 3.8 targets per game
• Drew 11.5% of Panthers targets

Hubbard ranked third among RBs in expected PPR points per game over that stretch, behind only Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon.

Good on the Ground, Not Through the Air

Hubbard was excellent on the ground last year, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Among 47 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• fourth in rush yards over expected per attempt
• seventh in yards after contact per attempt
• 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• ninth in Pro Football Focus rush grade

Hubbard was much less efficient in the passing game. He caught 79.6% of his targets but somehow averaged just 4.0 yards per catch. That was the fifth-lowest mark among 1,209 RB seasons of 20+ catches since 2000.

Hubbard ranked 36th among 37 qualifying RBs in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Supporting Cast Didn't Help Much

Hubbard was a bright spot in a tough season for the Panthers. They finished 29th in total yards and 23rd in points. It was a slow-paced attack, ranking 25th in neutral pace and 31st in plays per game.

Carolina leaned toward the run, finishing 19th in pass rate over expected and 22nd in neutral pass rate. But negative game scripts boosted them to 11th in overall pass rate.

The team notably went pass-heavier in the red zone, though, ranking:

• fourth in red-zone pass rate
• fifth in red-zone pass rate over expected

Despite all that, Hubbard ranked second league-wide with 21 carries inside the five-yard line.

2024 Was His Career Best

Hubbard’s 16.4 PPR points per game last year were easily a career high. He averaged 8.2 as a rookie in 2021 and sunk to 6.0 in year two.

Hubbard won the lead role in 2023 and delivered 10.7 PPR points per game -- good for 36th among RBs.

His yards per carry has yo-yoed from 3.6 to 4.9 to 3.8 to 4.8 over the last four years. But he’s been steadier in terms of Pro Football Focus rushing grade since a rough rookie season. His ranks the last three years:

• 2022 -- 17th out of 48
• 2023 -- 14th out of 49
• 2024 -- 9th out of 47

History Of Lower-Body Injuries

Hubbard missed two games in 2022 with an ankle injury and the final two games of last year with calf and knee injuries.

He also missed the final four games of his final college season with a high-ankle sprain.

2025 Expectations

How Big a Threat Is New Competition?

The depth chart behind Hubbard looks different heading into 2025 than it did last year.

RB Miles Sanders left in free agency, while RB Jonathon Brooks will miss the entire season after tearing the same ACL for the second time in a little over a year in December.

Carolina will replace those guys with free-agent Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne.

Dowdle is coming off a 1,079-yard season for the Cowboys. He averaged 3.28 yards after contact per carry and earned a 74.4 Pro Football Focus rushing grade. Strong marks -- but he trailed Hubbard in both. Dowdle got just $2.75 million on a one-year deal, suggesting that he’s likely viewed as depth, rather than a big part of the backfield.

Etienne arrived Round 4 of the draft. Travis’ brother averaged 5.6 yards per carry across three college seasons but never led a backfield in carries.

Hubbard is a good bet to hang on to lead ball-carrying duties this season. But he could lose passing-down work to Dowdle and/or Etienne, especially considering how inefficient Hubbard was as a receiver last year.

Supporting Cast Should Be Better

QB Bryce Young returns for year three after a strong second half to last season. He’ll be helped by the addition of first-round rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. This offense is a candidate to take a significant leap forward in 2025, which would bode well for Hubbard’s fantasy value.

The Panthers also return all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked:

• fourth in adjusted line yards
• eighth in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 10th in ESPN run block win rate

Coaching Continuity Can Only Help

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales was a hot candidate in the 2024 coaching cycle after helping to revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. 

He’s deployed balanced offenses across the past two seasons. The 2023 Bucs ranked 13th with a 58.9% pass rate, and last year’s Panthers finished ninth at 58.7%.

We currently project the 2025 Panthers for a 58.5% pass rate.

Don't Worry About Hubbard's Age

Hubbard will play this season at 26 years old. While that’s a little past prime for RBs, our aging-curve research shows that we can still expect 90-96% of peak production from Hubbard.

Tetairoa McMillan

Bottom Line: He's Primed for Immediate Impact

McMillan went eighth overall in this spring’s draft and has a good chance to immediately assume No. 1 WR duties in Carolina. If QB Bryce Young continues to ascend after a promising second half to last season, McMillan’s ceiling will extend into the top-20 at his position. Draft him as a WR3 with upside.

2024 Summary

Profile Looks (Nearly) Bulletproof

The No. 4 WR prospect in the 2022 recruiting class, McMillan eschewed offers from big-name football programs to reunite with his high school QB at Arizona.

McMillan made an immediate impact. He led Arizona with eight TDs and led all true freshmen with 702 receiving yards in 2022. 

Then came a breakout sophomore season. McMillan overtook then-redshirt junior, now 49ers WR Jacob Cowing as Arizona’s top target. He led the team with 130 targets, 90 catches, and 1,396 receiving yards. The catches and yards were both top-nine marks in the country.

Despite a lower-leg injury that required surgery in April 2024, McMillan turned in a strong junior campaign. In fact, his 7.0 catches and 109.9 yards per game were both career highs. He accounted for a massive 44% of Arizona’s receiving yards and TDs. 

McMillan’s 2.87 yards per route last year was also a personal best and ranked seventh among 49 WRs at the Combine. He ranked fifth in that group in yards per team pass attempt.

If there’s a concern with McMillan’s college resume, it’s that 25% of his career targets were contested. For comparison, just 14% of Travis Hunter’s targets were contested; 16% for Emeka Egbuka.

High contested target rates sometimes point to an inability to separate. But with McMillan, it was more a case of Arizona force-feeding him the ball even when he wasn’t open.

WR Brings Plus Size & Athleticism

McMillan goes 6’4, 219 pounds with a 65th percentile wingspan and 87th percentile hand size.

He didn’t work out at the Combine but clocked a 4.48-second 40 time at his Pro Day (although some scouts reportedly hand-timed him in the mid-4.5 range).

He Didn't Miss a College Game

McMillan suffered a lower-leg injury during practice in April 2024. He had what HC Brent Brennan called a “little procedure” and was sidelined until August. McMillan was ready for the season opener, though, and played all 12 games.

In fact, McMillan played in all 37 of Arizona’s games over the last three seasons.

2025 Expectations

Path to Top of Depth Chart is Clear

Despite glaring holes on defense, the Panthers used the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on McMillan. 

“Tet McMillan has really good play speed,” GM Dan Morgan said shortly after making the pick. “What pops off the tape about him is how smooth he is, his body control, his ability to adjust to all types of throws, his catch radius, and his hands are elite. He catches everything outside his frame, and he can win the jump ball down the field and in the red zone. He puts the ball in the end zone and that’s obviously something we want to do.”

McMillan joins a WR corps alongside Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Hunter Renfrow.

Thielen led the group with 61.5 receiving yards per game last year but will turn 35 in August. Legette and Coker are candidates for year-two leaps. But Legette underwhelmed as a rookie, while Coker went undrafted last year. The 29-year-old Renfrow returns after missing the 2024 season due to a bout with ulcerative colitis.

It’s a relatively uninspiring group, giving McMillan a good chance to immediately step in as Carolina’s top dog.

Will He Get Quality QB Play?

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate.  Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way. Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Coaching Staff Adds Upside

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season. Canales still looks like a positive for Young’s development -- and, therefore, McMillan’s fantasy outlook.

It’s worth noting that Canales’ 2023 Bucs team produced a pair of top-30 PPR WRs, with Mike Evans finishing WR7 and Chris Godwin WR29.

Mixed Bag For Top-10 Picks

McMillan became the ninth receiver to be picked between No. 6 and No. 10 overall over the last 10 drafts. Here’s how the previous eight finished in PPR points per game as rookies:

Xavier Legette

Bottom Line: Underwhelming 2024 Leaves Him in Flier Territory

Legette is coming off a disappointing rookie season. There were excuses, namely a bad offense and multiple injuries. But he’ll need to take a big step forward in order to be a 2025 fantasy factor, especially after Carolina added first-round WR Tetairoa McMillan. Legette is no more than a late-round flier in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

WR Debuted as Fantasy Non-Factor

Legette finished his 2024 rookie season with 49 catches for 497 yards and four TDs across 16 games. He exited Week 15 and missed Week 16 with a hip injury.

Legette ranked 61st among WRs in total PPR points and 74th in points per game. He cracked the top-36 WRs in only four weeks all season, with just one finish better than WR28.

At Least He Played Full Time ... When Healthy

Legette opened last season in a part-time role, failing to reach a 60% route rate in four of his first five games. His playing time climbed starting in Week 6, and Legette averaged an 87% route rate over the next eight games. He was limited again late in the season, presumably because he was battling hip and wrist injuries.

Legette finished the season with 84 targets -- 5.3 per game on a 16.1% target share. If we look at those eight mid-season games with full playing time, Legette climbs to 5.8 targets per game on a 17.7% share. He ranked 46th among WRs in expected PPR points per game over that stretch; 58th in actual points per game.

Bad Efficiency Should Worry You

Legette caught just 58.3% of his targets and averaged 10.1 yards per catch. His 5.9 yards per target ranked 82nd among 89 WRs with 50+ targets.

Legette fared only slightly better in terms of yards per route, finishing 72nd. He ranked 84th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Among 16 qualifying rookie WRs, Legette ranked 11th in yards per route and 16th in PFF grade.

He was particularly disappointing after the catch, where he averaged just 2.3 yards per reception. That ranked 82nd among those 89 qualifying WRs. Legette’s +0.1 yards after catch over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats, ranked 64th.

Supporting Cast Didn't Help

Legette played in a bad Panthers offense that ranked:

• 31st in plays
• 23rd in points
• 29th in total yards
• 30th in passing yards
• 30th in yards per pass attempt
• 16th in passing TDs

QB Bryce Young played better over the second half of the season, but Carolina still averaged only 198 passing yards per game over their final 10. That would have ranked 25th over the entire season.

Legette Was a One-Year College Wonder

Legette was the 32nd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft after a strange college career.

He did next to nothing over his first four seasons at South Carolina, totaling just 42 catches for 423 yards. That stretch included a 2020 hamstring injury and a 2021 motorcycle accident – all after Legette spent his senior year of high school playing QB. 

Then he came out of nowhere for a huge 2023 campaign: 71 catches for 1,255 yards and seven TDs. Legette ranked top-16 among 286 qualifying WRs in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. 

Then he smashed the Combine, recording a 4.39-second 40 time and 40-inch vertical at 6’1, 221 pounds to earn a 9.90 Relative Athletic Score.

Lengthy Injury History Adds Risk

Legette dealt with shoulder, toe, hip, and wrist injuries last year. Then came foot surgery this offseason, reportedly to address persistent discomfort he experienced throughout his rookie season.

He also had the aforementioned hamstring injury in college that cost him four games in 2020.

2025 Expectations

He'll Need To Earn Playing Time

Legette’s role and target projection are up in the air after the Panthers used the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Tet McMillan. He’s likely to be a full-time player right away, leaving Legette to battle for playing time with WRs Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, and Hunter Renfrow.

Thielen turns 35 in August but led the Panthers with 61.5 receiving yards per game last year. That included 72.3 yards per game over his final seven outings. (Legette averaged 35.5 yards per game during that stretch.)

Coker went undrafted last year but wound up beating Legette in receiving yards per game, yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

The 29-year-old Renfrow returns after missing the 2024 season due to a bout with ulcerative colitis. He topped 1,000 yards back in 2021 but totaled only 585 yards across 2022 and 2023.

One thing working in Legette’s favor is that Renfrow and Thielen are primary slot receivers, and Coker ran 61% of his routes from the slot last year. Legette ran 69% of his routes from the outside.

Will QB Play Be A Limiting Factor?

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate.  Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way. Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Coaching Continuity Should Benefit Offense

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season. Canales still looks like a positive for Young’s development -- and, therefore, Legette’s fantasy outlook.

It’s worth noting that Canales’ 2023 Bucs team produced a pair of top-30 PPR WRs, with Mike Evans finishing WR7 and Chris Godwin WR29.

Reason to Believe He Can Still Ascend?

Legette was an older rookie and will play the 2025 season at 24 years old. 

According to our aging-curve research, we should expect somewhere between 87-94% of peak production from a 24-year-old WR. (WRs tend to peak at 26 or 27.)

Jalen Coker

Bottom Line: He's a Deep Sleeper To Monitor

Coker flashed as an undrafted rookie last year, impressing in metrics such as yards per target and yards per route. He’ll face tougher target competition in 2025 after Carolina spent the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Tetairoa McMillan. That leaves Coker as more of a waiver-wire watchlist guy than draft target.

2024 Summary

Rookie Ranked Outside Top 70

Coker caught 32 balls for 478 yards and two TDs in 11 games last year. He was a healthy scratch for the first three games of the season and missed Weeks 12-14 with a quad injury.

Coker finished 73rd among WRs in PPR points per game; 71st in half-PPR.

Coker Produced in Spurts

Coker’s playing time yo-yoed from Week 4 through 10. His route rate got as high as 93% over that stretch and as low as 10%. He was a full-time player over the final four weeks of the season, with route rates holding steady between 84% and 92%.

Coker averaged 4.2 targets per game on a 13.6% target share across his 11 outings. He ranked 80th among WRs in expected PPR points per game. 

Over the final four weeks of the season, Coker spiked to 5.0 targets per game on a 17.1% share, ranking 62nd at the position in expected PPR points per game.

Sneaky Strong Efficiency Delivered a Boost

Coker caught 69.6% of his targets on an 11.3-yard average target depth last year. He averaged 14.9 yards per catch and 10.4 yards per target. The latter mark ranked seventh among 106 WRs with 40+ targets.

Coker didn’t fare quite as well in terms of yards per route, ranking 43rd among those 106 WRs. But his 1.72 yards per route was good for fourth among 14 qualifying rookie WRs, notably ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr., Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, and teammate Xavier Legette.

Carolina Was a Tough Spot for Fantasy Production

Coker played in a bad Panthers offense that ranked:

• 31st in plays
• 23rd in points
• 29th in total yards
• 30th in passing yards
• 30th in yards per pass attempt
• 16th in passing TDs

QB Bryce Young played better over the second half of the season, but Carolina still averaged only 198 passing yards per game over their final 10. That would have ranked 25th over the entire season.

Coker Stood Out at Small School

Coker went undrafted last year after spending four seasons at Holy Cross. 

After a catch-less freshman campaign, he improved his receiving yardage in each of the next three years, from 691 to 914 to 1,040. He accounted for a whopping 46.7% of the team’s receiving yards as a senior.

Coker got a Combine invite but disappointed with a 4.57-second 40 time at 6’1 and 208 pounds.

Injury History Not Worrisome

Coker had a healthy run at Holy Cross but missed three games last year after suffering a quad injury in practice leading up to Week 12.

2025 Expectations

Path to Playing Time Looks Tougher

The Panthers spent the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Tetairoa McMillan. Draft capital and talent make him a strong bet for an every-down role right away.

That’d leave Coker to battle for playing time with WRs Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and Hunter Renfrow. Legette played most of his snaps outside the numbers last year, while Thielen and Renfrow are primary slot receivers. 

Coker ran 61% of his routes from the slot for the season, but he actually played more on the outside over the final four weeks. He seems capable of winning either an outside WR job or the slot job.

Coker out-played Legette by most metrics last year. Thielen beat Coker in yards per game, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. But they’re on different ends of the career arc, with Thielen turning 35 in August and Coker a 23-year-old, second-year receiver.

Renfrow is a long shot to win a starting job after being out of football last season due to a bout with ulcerative colitis. He topped 1,000 yards back in 2021 but totaled only 585 yards across 2022 and 2023.

QB Question Still Looms

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate.  Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way. Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Coaching Staff Presents Continuity

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season. Canales still looks like a positive for Young’s development -- and, therefore, Coker’s fantasy potential.

It’s worth noting that Canales’ 2023 Bucs team produced a pair of top-30 PPR WRs, with Mike Evans finishing WR7 and Chris Godwin WR29.

Adam Thielen

Bottom Line: Don't Expect Difference-Making Impact

Thielen remained effective last year, finishing 29th among WRs in PPR points per game on the season. He ranked 12th over the final seven weeks. He’ll play the 2025 season at 35, though, and faces new target competition from first-round rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. Thielen is more of a waiver-wire watchlist guy than draft target.

2024 Summary

Thielen Still Had Gas in the Tank

Thielen tallied 48 catches for 615 yards and five TDs across 10 games last year. He ranked 29th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Thielen missed Weeks 4 through 10 with a hamstring injury. He caught eight balls for 109 yards and a score in three games before going down, ranking 55th among WRs in PPR points.

He was much more productive post-injury, racking up 40 catches for 506 yards and four scores over his final seven games. Only 11 WRs scored more PPR points than Thielen over that stretch. The run included a pair of top-eight weekly finishes and four games inside the top 24 WRs.

And He Continued Earning Targets

A healthy Thielen was a near full-time player for Carolina last year, posting a 78% route rate across his 10 games.

He averaged 6.2 targets per game on a 19.0% target share for the season, ranking 43rd among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Over his final seven outings, Thielen climbed to 7.1 targets per game and a 21.6% target share. He ranked 29th at the position in expected PPR points per game over that stretch.

Hands, Efficiency Remained Reliable

Thielen’s 77.4% catch rate last year ranked third among 89 WRs with 50+ targets. He was charged with only two drops.

Thielen averaged just 12.8 yards per catch but still posted 9.9 yards per target. That was his best mark since 2016 and ranked 10th among those 89 qualifying WRs. He finished 23rd in yards per route (2.06) and 31st in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (76.5).

Thielen was even more efficient over his final seven games:

• 10.1 yards per target
• 2.25 yards per route
• 78.7 PFF grade

He Was a Bright Spot in a Bad Offense

Thielen played in a bad Panthers offense that ranked:

• 31st in plays
• 23rd in points
• 29th in total yards
• 30th in passing yards
• 30th in yards per pass attempt
• 16th in passing TDs

QB Bryce Young played better over the second half of the season, coinciding with Thielen’s uptick in production. But Carolina still averaged only 212 passing yards over the final seven games. That would have ranked 21st over the entire season.

Thielen Living Inside Top 30

Thielen has averaged 13.5 and 14.0 PPR points per game across his two seasons with the Panthers, finishing top-30 among WRs both years.

He did it with volume in 2023, averaging 8.1 targets per game on a 23.4% share. Efficiency carried him last year, with Thielen posting his best yards per target since 2016 and his best yards per route since 2019.

His Injury History's Growing, Though

Thielen has only missed time with injury in three of 11 NFL seasons, but all three of those have come over the last six years.

He missed five games in 2019 with a hamstring injury, four games in 2021 with a high-ankle sprain, and seven games with a hamstring injury last year.

2025 Expectations

Old Man Must Compete with Youngsters

The Panthers spent the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Tetairoa McMillan. Draft capital and talent make him a strong bet for an every-down role right away.

That’d leave Thielen to battle for playing time with WRs Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Hunter Renfrow. Legette underwhelmed as a rookie last year but has draft capital on his side after going 32nd overall in the 2024 draft. Coker went undrafted last year but led Panthers WRs with 10.4 yards per target. Renfrow returns after missing all of 2024 due to a bout with ulcerative colitis.

Thielen has run over 70% of his routes from the slot for the Panthers over the last two years, so he’s likely battling with Coker and Renfrow for that role.

QB Adds Uncertainty

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate.  Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way. Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Return of Coaches Helps Stability

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season. Canales still looks like a positive for Young’s development -- and, therefore, Thielen’s fantasy outlook.

It’s worth noting that Canales’ 2023 Bucs team produced a pair of top-30 PPR WRs, with Mike Evans finishing WR7 and Chris Godwin WR29.

Can Thielen Keep Producing at 35?

Thielen turns 35 in August. Our aging-curve research says to expect just 60% of peak production from 35-year-old WRs.

Thielen has already bucked traditional aging curves, though. In fact, his 14.0 PPR points per game last year were the 29th most in NFL history by a WR 34 or older.

Ja’Tavion Sanders

Bottom Line: Year 2 Leap Could Be Coming

Sanders split time with TE Tommy Tremble as a rookie last year. But he flashed in five games without Tremble, posting a PPR scoring average that would have ranked 17th among TEs. He’s a candidate for a Year 2 leap but is more waiver-wire watchlist material than draft target.

2024 Summary

Rookie Year Proved Mostly Quiet

Sanders caught 33 balls for 342 yards and one TD in 16 games last year. He ranked 44th among TEs in PPR points per game.

Sanders Flashed In A Bigger Role

Sanders worked in a timeshare with TE Tommy Tremble when both were healthy last year.

In 11 games with Tremble, Sanders averaged:

• 2.0 targets
• 1.4 catches
• 12.1 yards
• 2.6 PPR points

In five games without Tremble, Sanders’ averages spiked to:

• 4.2 targets
• 3.6 catches
• 41.8 yards
• 9.0 PPR points

Sanders’ PPR scoring average without Tremble would have ranked 17th among TEs over the course of the season.

Efficiency Metrics Leave Uncertainty

Sanders posted a 76.7% catch rate and 10.4 yards per catch last year. His 8.0 yards per target was good for 16th among 36 TEs with 40+ targets.

Sanders averaged just 1.06 yards per route, though, 31st among those 36 TEs. That was largely because he drew a target on only 13.7% of his routes, which also ranked 31st among 36 qualifying TEs.

There Wasn't Much to Like in Carolina

Sanders played in a bad Panthers offense that ranked:

• 31st in plays
• 23rd in points
• 29th in total yards
• 30th in passing yards
• 30th in yards per pass attempt
• 16th in passing TDs

QB Bryce Young played better over the second half of the season, but Carolina still averaged only 198 passing yards per game over their final 10. That would have ranked 25th over the entire season.

Good College Production, Bad Athleticism

Sanders was a fourth round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after spending the previous three years at Texas.

The former five-star recruit broke out as a sophomore, finishing second on the 2022 Longhorns in catches (54), third in receiving yards (613), and second in TDs (5). Then he went for a career-high 682 yards on a huge 15.2 yards per catch in 2023.

Sanders disappointed at the Combine, though, with a 4.69-second 40 time at 6’4 and 245 pounds.

Not Much Injury History to Worry About

Sanders was carted off the field in Week 12 last year with a neck injury. He surprisingly ended up missing just one game.

Sanders sprained his right ankle during his final college season but did not miss any games.

2025 Expectations

Fluid TE Room Presents Path to Starting Gig

Tommy Tremble returns alongside Sanders in Carolina’s TE room. Tremble underwent back surgery in May but is expected to be ready at some point during training camp.

The Panthers also added TE Mitchell Evans in Round 5 of this spring’s draft. The Notre Dame product sat behind TE Michael Mayer as a freshman and sophomore before an impressive but injury-shortened junior campaign. Evans averaged a team-high 52.8 yards per game in 2023 – before a torn MCL and partially torn ACL ended his season in late October. He returned to lead the Irish with 43 catches and ranked third with 421 receiving yards last year.

Consider Sanders the early favorite for lead pass-catching duties this season, but this TE depth chart is fluid.

At WR, the Panthers return Xavier Legette, Jalen Coke, and Adam Thielen. And they added Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth overall pick of the draft.

Will His QB Hurt Or Help?

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate.  Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way. Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Coaching Staff Is Back

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season.

Canales’ offense hasn’t produced much at TE, though. Last year’s Panthers ranked 27th in total TE PPR points, and the 2023 Bucs finished 28th.

Where Do The Panthers Land In The Rankings?

How do guys like Chuba Hubbard and Tetairoa McMillan fit into your draft plan? Only one way to find out: Get a customized fantasy football cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league's exact scoring rules and starting requirements. The result is a set of rankings custom crafted to crush your draft.

Fire up your Draft War Room now!

Next Up

Could Michael Penix Make The Falcons A Must-Draft Offense?

Next Article