Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Will Liam Coen's Departure Sink The Buccaneers?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR Emeka Egbuka

Key Departures

• None

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Josh Grizzard replaces OC Liam Coen

Baker Mayfield

Bottom Line: Don't Overpay For Last Year's TD Barrage

Mayfield finished fourth among QBs in fantasy points last year, setting career highs in all major passing categories. He lost OC Liam Coen this offseason, though, and is an obvious regression candidate off last year’s historic 7.2% TD rate. Mayfield is more likely to produce as a mid-range or low-end QB1 than top-5 option this season.

2024 Summary

Mayfield Explodes for QB4 Finish

Mayfield is coming off a huge 2024 season, finishing fourth among QBs in total fantasy points and points per game.

His 4,500 passing yards ranked third league-wide, and his 41 passing TDs tied for second behind only Joe Burrow’s 43. 

Mayfield tacked on 378 yards and three TDs on the ground — both top-11 marks among QBs.

He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in 13 of his 17 outings. That included eight top-five finishes — a number topped by only Lamar Jackson.

Big Passing Volume Helped

Mayfield’s 570 pass attempts ranked fifth league-wide. His 7.4-yard average target depth ranked just 25th among 32 qualifiers. But his 3,971 intended air yards ranked ninth.

Mayfield finished fifth among QBs in expected fantasy points per game, behind Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels.

Career-Best Efficiency Headed for Regression?

Mayfield completed 71.4% of his passes last year — a career high and third best among 32 qualifying QBs league wide. His 78.7% adjusted completion rate, which accounts for drops and throwaways, tied for sixth.

Mayfield’s 7.9 yards per attempt was also a personal best and ranked sixth league wide.

Mayfield led the league with a huge 7.2% passing TD rate. In fact, it was the seventh-highest rate among 228 QB seasons of 400+ pass attempts over the last 10 seasons.

Mayfield Still Productive Despite WR Injuries

The 2024 Buccaneers ranked sixth in total plays. Their 55.9% pass rate ranked just 20th. But they finished 10th in total pass attempts.

Tampa Bay leaned more on the pass in the red zone, ranking 14th in red-zone pass rate and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected.

Mayfield’s top two WRs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, missed 13 total games last year. With both guys on the field for the first seven games of the season, Mayfield averaged 265.6 yards and 2.6 TDs per game. With Godwin out for the final 10, and Evans out for three of those, Mayfield’s averages dipped a tad to 264.1 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.

The Bucs sank from a 57.9% pass rate over the first seven games to 54.5% over the last 10.

Baker's Best Work Yet

Mayfield set career highs last year in:

• Completion rate
• Adjusted completion rate
• Yards per attempt
• Pass yards
• Pass TDs
• Pass TD rate
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

He smashed his previous career high in fantasy points per game. In fact, Mayfield didn’t finish better than QB18 in points per game in any of his first six NFL seasons — and that came back in his 2018 rookie year.

Mayfield ranked 21st in points per game in his Bucs debut in 2023.

He's Been Healthy Lately

Mayfield has played all 34 games over the past two seasons.

He missed two games in 2021 with a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder that required surgery and two games in 2022 with a high-ankle sprain.

Mayfield also missed time with a right knee injury and sustained two concussions in college.

2025 Expectations

Mayfield Still the Starter in Year Two of Big Contract

Mayfield remains locked in as Tampa Bay’s starter, heading into the second season of a three-year, $100,000 million contract signed in March 2024.

Supporting Cast Looks Even Better

The Bucs return all seven players who saw 50+ targets last year:

• Mike Evans 
• Chris Godwin
• Jalen McMillan
• Sterling Shepard
• Cade Otton
• Bucky Irving
• Rachaad White

Godwin is working back from the dislocated left ankle that ended his 2024 season but is tentatively expected to be ready come Week 1. Tampa Bay gave him a new three-year, $66 million deal in March, so there doesn’t seem to be any long-term concern about the ankle.

The Bucs also used the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft to add WR Emeka Egbuka. Ohio State’s all-time leader in career receiving yards (2,868) is an NFL-ready prospect who figures to surpass and upgrade on McMillan.

Irving and White are both excellent pass-catching backs, giving Mayfield a potent and deep pass-catching corps.

On the offensive line, the Bucs return all five starters from a unit that last year ranked:

• second in Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade
• fifth in ESPN pass block win rate

What Does Liam Coen's Departure Mean?

It was one-and-done for Liam Coen as Bucs OC. After leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year, he bolted to take the HC job in Jacksonville in January.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Grizzard will be Tampa Bay's fourth different OC in the last four years — and Mayfield's ninth different play caller as a pro.

Beware of TD Regression

Mayfield will have trouble matching last year’s historic 7.2% pass TD rate.

There have been 11 other seasons of a 7+% TD rate in NFL history. Here’s how those QBs fared the following year:  

• Only one reached 7%
• Seven of 11 dipped below 5.5%
• Four of 11 dipped below 4.5%

Mayfield threw a score on 4.6% of his passes over his first six NFL seasons, including 4.9% in 2023 with the Bucs.

We currently project him for a 5.5% TD rate this year.

Bucky Irving

Bottom Line: Don't Bet Against This Diminutive Back

Irving was awesome as a rookie last year, finishing 14th among RBs in PPR points and even higher in most key efficiency metrics. His role grew over the second half of the season — and he’s in line for clear lead duties in 2025. His 192-pound frame is a concern, but Irving’s ceiling extends into RB1 territory this season.

2024 Summary

Big Second Half Fuels Strong Rookie Season

Irving ran for 1,122 yards and eight TDs on 207 carries as a rookie last year. He added 392 more yards on 47 catches to finish 14th among RBs in total PPR points and 20th in points per game.

Irving was even more productive over the second half of the season. He climbed from 11.1 points per game over his first nine to 18.3 over his final eight. Only five RBs averaged more points per game than Irving over that latter stretch. And, if we omit the Week 14 game that Irving left early, he jumps to fourth among RBs with 20.5 PPR points per game.

Irving averaged 129 total yards and 0.7 TDs over his final seven healthy games. 

Irving Earned a Feature Role

Irving earned a significant role right out of the gate last year, playing 31% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps and handling nine carries with three targets in the season opener. He continued to work as the 1B to Rachaad White over the first half of the season. Through Week 9, Irving averaged 9.2 carries and 2.8 targets per game, ranking 36th among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

The backfield tilted in Irving’s favor over the second half of the season. He jumped to 15.5 carries and 3.4 targets per game and ranked 13th at the position in expected PPR points per game.

If we omit Week 14, when a back injury limited Irving to just 10 snaps and five touches, he climbs to 17.1 carries and 3.7 targets per game. His expected-point average jumps to ninth among RBs.

Irving played at least 44% of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps in his last seven healthy games, topping 52% in five of them. That included a season-high 71.6% snap rate in Tampa Bay’s must-win Week 18 game.

Irving then played 68.8% of the snaps in the team’s playoff loss, handling 17 carries and two targets. White finished that game with just one carry and two targets.

Irving Made His Own Yards, and Plenty of Them

Irving ripped off 5.4 yards per carry last year — fifth best among 47 RBs with 90+ carries.

He got plenty of help from a strong offensive line, but Irving did lots of damage on his own. Among those 47 RBs, he ranked:

• sixth in rush yards over expected per attempt
• first in yards after contact per attempt
• fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt

Irving was super efficient in the passing game, too, hauling in 90.4% of his targets and averaging 8.3 yards per catch. He ranked sixth among 37 qualifying RBs in yards per route and second in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Supporting Cast Helped

Irving played in a strong Tampa Bay offense that ranked third in total yards and fourth in points. The Bucs finished sixth in total plays and leaned toward the run, ranking 13th with a 44.1% rush rate. They finished 10th in total rush attempts.

Irving also benefitted from a top-tier offensive line. The 2024 Bucs ranked:

• 16th in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade
• sixth in ESPN run block win rate
• second in adjusted line yards 

Poor Athleticism But Strong Production Profile

A poor Combine — namely a 4.55-second 40 time at 192 pounds — sunk Irving to Round 4 of the 2024 NFL Draft. 

But he sported an impressive college profile. Irving topped 1,000 rushing yards as a sophomore and junior at Oregon, averaging 6.5 yards per carry over that stretch and ranking near the top of the country in yards after contact per attempt. He also racked up 87 catches across those two seasons, including a RB-high 56 in 2023.

Irving Played Through Multiple Injuries

Irving played all 17 games last year but dealt with hamstring, toe, hip, and back injuries.

HC Todd Bowles said in October that Irving has been dealing with a toe issue since college, although it did not cost him any games in school either.

2025 Expectations

No New Challenges in Bucs Backfield

The Buccaneers made no significant additions to the backfield this offseason, returning Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker.

OC Josh Grizzard said in May that he envisions the 2025 backfield looking similar to how it did at the end of the 2024 season. 

“I would say how we ended last season was essentially where we would take off," Grizzard said. "There’s a spot for all three of those guys.”

While it sounds like the Bucs want to keep White and Tucker involved, it also sounds like Irving will open the season as the clear lead back. We’re not projecting him to handle quite as much work as he did down the stretch last year, but that type of workload is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Supporting Cast Remains Strong

Lots of continuity in Irving’s supporting cast heading into 2025. QB Baker Mayfield, WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan, and TE Cade Otton are all back. Tampa Bay bolstered the WR corps by using the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Emeka Egbuka. This should be a strong passing game again.

The Buccaneers also return all five starters from last year’s offensive line. That’s excellent news considering how good the unit was last year.

OC Switch Adds a Challenge

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Is Irving Big Enough to Hold Up?

The biggest question with Irving is whether his 192-pound frame can hold up to lead-back duties.

Irving last year became the 45th sub-200-pound RB since 1970 to top 200 carries in a season. 19 of those RBs (42.2%) never reached 200 carries in a season again.

Irving already dealt with multiple injuries last year, particularly over the second half of the season when his snaps and touches grew.

Rachaad White

Bottom Line: Likely Just A Handcuff

White was out-played by and eventually lost lead duties to Bucky Irving last year. Don’t count on Irving giving that role up in 2025. White could still get enough action, particularly in the passing game, to be a low-level fantasy starter. But he’s best viewed as a handcuff.

2024 Summary

White Scored as RB2 Despite Losing Lead Job

White took 144 carries for 613 yards and three TDs in 16 games last year. He added 393 yards and six more scores on 51 catches.

White finished 20th among RBs in total PPR points and 21st in points per game. He fell to 24th in total points and 22nd in points per game in non-PPR.

Role Diminished Throughout Season

White opened last season as the 1A ahead of rookie RB Bucky Irving. Over the first five games, White averaged:

• 67% snap rate
• 10.2 carries
• 3.8 targets

His 12.0 expected PPR points per game over that stretch ranked 31st among RBs.

White missed Week 6 with a foot injury, though, and never regained his previous role. Over his final 11 games, he averaged:

• 50% snap rate
• 8.5 carries
• 3.5 targets

White ranked 34th among RBs with 10.7 expected PPR points per game from Week 7 on.

He really disappeared late in the season, with six carries and one target in Week 17, no touches in Week 18, and one carry and two targets in Tampa Bay’s playoff loss.

OK on the Ground, Excellent Through the Air

White’s 4.3 yards per carry last year was a career best and ranked 27th among 47 RBs with 90+ carries. Among those 90 RBs, White finished:

• 20th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 18th in yards after contact per attempt
• 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt

He was more efficient in the passing game, registering an 89.5% catch rate and 7.7 yards per attempt. White’s 6.9 yards per target ranked 10th among 40 qualifying RBs; his 1.32 yards per route was good for 15th.

Bucs Offense was a Boon

White played in a strong Tampa Bay offense that ranked third in total yards and fourth in points. The Bucs finished sixth in total plays and leaned toward the run, ranking 13th with a 44.1% rush rate. They finished 10th in total rush attempts.

White also benefited from a top-tier offensive line. The 2024 Bucs ranked:

• 16th in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade
• sixth in ESPN run block win rate
• second in adjusted line yards 

A Strong Receiving Track Record

White was an inefficient runner over his first two NFL seasons, mustering just 3.7 yards per carry and ranking near the bottom of the league in most advanced metrics.

2024 was easily his best year as a runner, bringing career highs in:

• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Pro Football Focus rushing grade

White has been a busy and effective receiver in all three of his NFL seasons. He and Alvin Kamara are the only two RBs with 50+ catches in all three of those years. White ranks fourth among RBs in catches, fifth in receiving yards, and third in receiving TDs since becoming a pro.

On the efficiency side, his career 6.7 yards per target is sixth best among 35 RBs with 100+ targets over the last three seasons. White has improved his yards per route each year, from 1.13 to 1.22 to 1.32.

Relatively Clean Injury History

White played all 34 games across his first two NFL seasons before missing Week 6 with a foot injury last year.

He missed one game in college in 2021 with a calf strain.

2025 Expectations

White Likely Returning to No. 2 Role

The Buccaneers made no significant additions to the backfield this offseason, returning Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker alongside White.

Irving deservingly emerged as Tampa Bay’s lead back over the second half of last season. He finished near the top of the league in most rushing metrics, notably beating White:

• 5.4 to 4.3 in yards per carry
• 0.94 to 0.34 in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 4.03 to 3.13 in yards after contact per attempt

OC Josh Grizzard said in May that he envisions the 2025 backfield looking similar to how it did at the end of the 2024 season. 

Grizzard added that “there’s a spot” for White and Tucker, too. We’ll see how carries shake out between those guys. Tucker beat White in yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt last year, albeit on just 50 carries. He also out-carried White 10 to 7 over Tampa Bay’s final three games last year  — although Tucker didn’t play at all in the playoff loss.

White should at least hold onto a role in the passing game. He remained plenty involved in that facet throughout last season — although it’s certainly worth noting that Irving beat White in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Bucs Offense Remains Strong

Lots of continuity for the Buccaneers heading into 2025. QB Baker Mayfield, WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan, and TE Cade Otton are all back. Tampa Bay bolstered the WR corps by using the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Emeka Egbuka. This should be a strong passing game again.

The Buccaneers also return all five starters from last year’s offensive line. That’s excellent news considering how good the unit was last year.

OC Change Adds Uncertainty

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Mike Evans

Bottom Line: Bet On Another WR2-Level Season

Evans is coming off a WR11 finish in PPR points per game last year — his ninth straight top-20 season. He’s 32 now and faces additional target competition in 2025 from first-round rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. But we’re not betting against another top-20 finish from this future Hall of Famer.

2024 Summary

Evans Scored as a WR1

Evans caught 74 balls for 1,004 yards and 11 scores in 14 games last year. Only three WRs tallied more TDs.

Evans ranked 11th among WRs in PPR points and PPR points per game. And, if we omit Weeks 6 and 7 when he left early with hamstring trouble, he climbs to fourth.

Evans flashed big weekly upside, with six finishes inside the top eight WRs. He failed to crack the top-36 in just three of 14 games.

Strong Volume, Especially Near the End Zone

Evans totaled 110 targets across his 14 games. His 7.9 targets per game ranked 22nd among WRs. That climbs to 8.4 targets per game, 14th at the position, if we omit Weeks 6 and 7. 

Evans was a big factor for the Buccaneers in scoring range, drawing 18 targets in the end zone — tied for second most among WRs. His 27 red-zone targets tied for 18th.

Evans ranked ninth among WRs with 8.8 expected receiving TDs, despite missing three games and parts of two others. His 15.4 expected PPR points per game ranked 12th. And that climbs to 16.1 expected PPR points per game, ninth among WRs, if we omit Weeks 6 and 7.

Evans clearly benefitted from WR Chris Godwin’s absence over the second half of the season. Here are Evans’ per-game splits when healthy:

5 healthy games with Godwin:

• 7.2 targets per game
• 23.5% target share
• 14.2 expected PPR points per game

7 healthy games without Godwin:

• 9.3 targets per game
• 28.6% target share
• 17.5 expected PPR points per game

New Role Delivers Strong Efficiency

Evans registered a career-high 67.3% catch rate last year. His 13.6 yards per catch was a career low. That was largely a result of a career-low 11.6-yard average target depth. 

The end result, though, was a career-best 2.41 yards per route. That ranked seventh among 84 qualifying WRs. Evans ranked eighth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and tied for second in Fantasy Points’ Separation Score.

Bucs Offense Boosted Evans' Production

Evans played in a strong Tampa Bay offense that ranked third in total yards and fourth in points. The Buccaneers ranked sixth in total plays. So, despite a 55.9% pass rate that ranked just 20th, they finished 10th in total pass attempts.

Tampa Bay leaned more on the pass in the red zone, ranking 14th in red-zone pass rate and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected. Evans surely played a big part in that.

But He's Been Doing It for Years

Evans extended his 1,000-yard streak to 11 seasons last year, making a catch late in Week 18 to get over 1,000. His 11 TDs last year also give him double-digit scores in six of 11 seasons, including four of his last five.

Evans has scored 15+ PPR points per game in seven straight seasons and 10 of 11 overall. Here are his finishes in PPR points per game by year:

• 2014 -- 14th
• 2015 -- 23rd
• 2016 -- third
• 2017 -- 20th
• 2018 -- 10th
• 2019 -- fourth
• 2020 -- 16th
• 2021 -- 12th
• 2022 -- 17th
• 2023 -- 11th
• 2024 -- 11th

Injuries Have Been the Biggest Problem

Evans has missed nine games across 11 NFL seasons with a groin injury and four separate hamstring injuries.

2025 Expectations

New Target Competition Arrives

Evans is entering the final year of his current contract but should remain a big part of Tampa Bay’s offense in 2025.

The target competition will likely be even tougher this year than last, though. WR Chris Godwin is working back from the dislocated left ankle that ended his 2024 season but is tentatively expected to be ready come Week 1. Tampa Bay gave him a new three-year, $66 million deal in March, so there doesn’t seem to be any long-term concern about the ankle.

The Bucs also used the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft to add WR Emeka Egbuka. Ohio State’s all-time leader in career receiving yards (2,868) is an NFL-ready prospect who figures to surpass and upgrade on WR Jalen McMillan.

Tampa Bay also returns a pair of strong pass-catching RBs in Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, plus TE Cade Otton.

QB and O-Line Return

QB Baker Mayfield is back under center for the Bucs. He’s coming off career bests last year in:

• Passing yards
• Passing TDs
• Completion rate
• Yards per pass attempt
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

Tampa Bay also returns all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked second in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade and fifth in ESPN pass block win rate.

New Play Caller Disrupts Continuity

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

No Signs of Slowing Down at 32

Evans will play the 2025 season at 32 years old. That’s well past prime for most WRs. Our aging-curve research says to expect 86% of peak production at 32 — down from 90% at 31.

Evans has shown no signs of decline yet, though, posting a career-best in yards per route last year.

Chris Godwin

Bottom Line: A Huge Value ... If Healthy

Godwin was awesome last year, ranking second among WRs in PPR points through Week 7. His season ended there with a dislocated ankle, which has his availability for the start of the 2025 campaign in some doubt. He’ll also face added target and role competition from rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. But, at a WR3 price tag in fantasy drafts, Godwin is well worth those risks.

2024 Summary

Big Season Cut Short By Injury

Godwin racked up 50 catches, 576 yards, and five TDs in seven games last year, before his season was ended by a dislocated ankle.

Through Week 7, he ranked:

• 1st among WRs in catches
• 2nd in receiving yards
• 3rd in receiving TDs
• 2nd in PPR points

Godwin scored as a top-21 WR in PPR points in five of seven outings, including three top-eight finishes.

WR1-Level Volume

Godwin’s 62 targets through Week 7 led the Buccaneers and ranked third among all WRs. He drew a 26.5% target share in those games, which was good for 13th at the position.

Godwin’s 5.6-yard average target depth was a career low and tied for second shortest among 84 qualifying WRs.

And he played second fiddle to Mike Evans when the Bucs got near the end zone. Godwin’s nine red-zone targets and two end-zone targets through Week 7 ranked outside the top-30 WRs.

Still, his overall volume led to him averaging 14.7 expected PPR points per game, which ranked 15th among WRs.

Short-Range Role Drives Strong Efficiency

Godwin caught a career-best 80.6% of his targets last year, in large part because of the low average target depth. He averaged 11.5 yards per catch and 9.3 yards per target. The latter mark was his best since 2020 and ranked 20th among 89 qualifying WRs.

Godwin registered a career-high 2.36 yards per route, which was good for 10th among those 89 WRs.

He was a big-time overachiever in terms of actual fantasy points vs. expected. In fact, Godwin averaged 5.0 more PPR points per game than expected — the biggest gap among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last year.

Bucs Ranks Top 5 on Offense

Godwin played in a strong Tampa Bay offense that ranked third in total yards and fourth in points. The Buccaneers ranked sixth in total plays. So, despite a 55.9% pass rate that ranked just 20th, they finished 10th in total pass attempts.

Tampa Bay leaned more on the pass in the red zone, ranking 14th in red-zone pass rate and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected.

Godwin Couldn't Stop Scoring Fantasy Points

Godwin’s 19.7 PPR points per game last year were a career high, just edging his 19.6 in 2019. He’s scored 15+ PPR points per game in five of his last six seasons now, with 2023 the lone exception. Godwin ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in yards (1,024) that year but got unlucky to score just twice.

Here are his finishes in PPR points per game since his 2019 breakout:

• 2019 -- second
• 2020 -- 15th
• 2021 -- seventh
• 2022 -- 18th
• 2023 -- 38th
• 2024 -- third

Two Serious Injuries ... And a Few More

Godwin’s 2024 season ended with a dislocated left ankle on October 21. He had surgery later that week.

December ACL and MCL tears in his right knee cut short his 2021 campaign. He’s missed eight more games as a pro with three hamstring injuries, a finger injury, and a concussion.

2025 Expectations

First-Round Rookie Adds Target Competition

The biggest question with Godwin heading into 2025 is his recovery from the dislocated ankle. His rehab has gone smoothly by all accounts, but the team has stopped short of guaranteeing that he’ll be ready by Week 1.

The Buccaneers did give Godwin a three-year, $66 million deal with $44 million guaranteed in March, which suggests no long-term concerns about that ankle. But they also spent the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka is a strong insurance policy on Godwin. He won’t threaten a healthy Godwin’s playing time, but he could impact his role.

Egbuka ran 73.2% of his routes from the slot at Ohio State. Godwin is at a 54.7% slot rate for his NFL career, including 61.9% last year. So there’s some overlap here in terms of deployment.

Godwin has been more efficient from the slot. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 9.2 yards per target and 2.26 yards per route from the slot vs. 6.9 yards per target and 1.80 yards per route from the outside.

Beyond Egbuka, Godwin will once again be battling for targets with WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, RBs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, and TE Cade Otton.

Godwin's QB and O-Line Return

QB Baker Mayfield is back under center for the Bucs. He’s coming off career bests last year in:

• Passing yards
• Passing TDs
• Completion rate
• Yards per pass attempt
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

Tampa Bay also returns all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked second in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade and fifth in ESPN pass block win rate.

New OC a Question Mark

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Age Not a Worry Yet

Godwin will play the 2025 season at 29 years old. That’s past prime for WRs on average. But our aging-curve research says that we can still expect 90-96% of peak production.

Emeka Egbuka

Bottom Line: He's a WR Handcuff With Exciting Upside

Egbuka has a good chance to win a top-three WR role on the Buccaneers this season. But he’ll struggle to overtake Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in the pecking order. That leaves Egbuka as the rare WR handcuff: unlikely to hold standalone value, but a potentially exciting fantasy starter if Evans or Godwin miss time.

2024 Summary

The Most Productive WR in Ohio State History

Egbuka left Ohio State as the school’s leader in all-time receiving yards. An impressive feat considering the talent that’s been in Columbus, especially lately.

Egbuka broke out as a sophomore in 2022, catching 74 balls for 1,151 yards and 10 TDs. All three marks just barely trailed fellow sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 77-1,263-14 line. Egbuka also finished slightly behind Harrison in yards per route, but his 3.01 ranked 11th in the country among 286 qualifying WRs.

An October ankle injury cost Egbuka three games and limited him down the stretch in 2023. He averaged 61 yards per game pre-injury vs. just 42 post-injury.

But he bounced back this past year, catching a career-high 81 balls for 1,011 yards and 10 TDs. Egbuka led Ohio State in catches, ranking second to uber-prospect Jeremiah Smith in yards and TDs. His 2.51 yards per route ranked 38th among 260 qualifying WRs; his 82.4 Pro Football Focus receiving grade was good for 20th.

Egbuka Worked as Short-Range Slot Man

Egbuka was a primary slot receiver for the Buckeyes. He ran 73.2% of his career routes from the inside, including a career-high 81.1% last year.

He worked mostly short routes, registering a career 9.1-yard average target depth. Egbuka didn’t top a 10.2-yard average in any of his four seasons. That helped him compile a 72.7% catch rate for his career. Egbuka averaged a solid 6.6 yards after catch.

2024 Ankle Injury Not a Concern

Egbuka suffered a high-ankle sprain in October 2023. He had tightrope surgery to repair the injury and returned about a month later.

2025 Expectations

Is There Room For Ebguka This Year?

The Buccaneers made Egbuka the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft. He joins a loaded WR corps alongside Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan.

Evans and Godwin are both coming off career bests in yards per route and are locked into big roles when healthy. Godwin, though, is coming off a dislocated ankle suffered last October. His rehab has gone well by all accounts, but the Bucs have not guaranteed that he’ll be ready for Week 1. The team did give him a three-year, $66 million deal in March, which suggests no long-term concerns about that ankle.

McMillan was a third-rounder last year and flashed late in his rookie season. But considering their college profiles and draft capital, Egbuka is the favorite to win the No. 3 WR job.

If he does, it’ll be interesting to see how he’s deployed alongside Godwin. While Egbuka ran the majority of his routes from the slot at Ohio State, he was more efficient from the outside. He averaged 2.97 yards per route from the outside vs. 2.48 from the slot. 

Godwin has also been a primary slot receiver and has been more efficient on the inside. He’s averaged 2.26 yards per route from the slot vs. 1.80 yards per route from the outside over the last three seasons.

QB and O-Line Remain Strong

QB Baker Mayfield is back under center for the Bucs. He’s coming off career bests last year in:

• Passing yards
• Passing TDs
• Completion rate
• Yards per pass attempt
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

Tampa Bay also returns all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked second in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade and fifth in ESPN pass block win rate.

Bucs Breaking in New Play Caller

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Wide Range of Outcomes Based on Draft Capital

There were 12 WRs drafted between picks 14 and 24 (within five spots on either side of Egbuka) over the previous five drafts. Here’s how those guys finished among WRs in PPR points per game as rookies:

• Jerry Jeudy -- 64th
• CeeDee Lamb -- 35th
• Jalen Reagor -- 100th
• Justin Jefferson -- 10th
• Kadarius Toney -- 65th
• Jahan Dotson -- 44th
• Treylon Burks -- 70th
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 61st
• Quentin Johnston -- 100th
• Zay Flowers -- 34th
• Jordan Addison -- 31st
• Brian Thomas Jr. -- 15th

That’s two top-15 finishes and five of 12 (42%) inside the top-36.

Smith-Njigba, who arrived in Seattle behind a pair of established veterans, is the best approximation for Egbuka’s 2025 situation.

Cade Otton

Bottom Line: Don't Chase Last Year's Production

Otton had a few big games when WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out last year but produced as a low-end TE2 otherwise. He returns to a very similar situation in 2025, making him a poor bet for TE1 numbers barring more injuries to those top two WRs.

2024 Summary

Fantasy Production Proved Volatile

Otton tallied 59 catches, 600 yards, and four TDs across 14 games last year. He ranked 14th among TEs in total PPR points and 12th in points per game.

Otton was a volatile weekly producer, with six top-12 outings but another six weeks outside the top-20 TEs in PPR points.

WR Injuries Boosted Otton's Volume

Otton drew 87 targets across his 14 games last year — ninth most among TEs. He climbs to eighth in targets per game (6.2). Otton’s 18.8% target share in his 14 games ranked 11th at the position.

But a big chunk of his targets and production came in three games with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out. Here are the splits:

3 games without Evans and Godwin

• 9.7 targets per game
  • 26.4% target share
• 19.8 PPR points per game

Other 11 games

• 5.3 targets per game
  • 16.4% target share
• 7.6 PPR points per game

Otton ranked third among TEs in PPR points per game without Evans and Godwin but just 22nd in the other 11. He scored as a top-12 TE in three of those 11 games.

TE Didn't Help Himself on Efficiency

Otton registered a 67.8% catch rate and 10.2 yards per catch last year. 

He ranked 26th among 36 qualifying TEs in yards per target and 25th in yards per route. He finished 31st in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Bucs Offense Boosted His Production

Otton played in a strong Tampa Bay offense that ranked third in total yards and fourth in points. The Buccaneers ranked sixth in total plays. So, despite a 55.9% pass rate that ranked just 20th, they finished 10th in total pass attempts.

Tampa Bay leaned more on the pass in the red zone, ranking 14th in red-zone pass rate and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected.

From Bad to 'Meh'

Otton has climbed from 5.8 to 6.9 to 10.2 PPR points per game over his three NFL seasons.

2024 brought career highs in targets per game and target share, as well as yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Still, Otton went from disastrous to still-bad in most efficiency metrics. His career 6.6 yards per target ranks 34th among 40 TEs with 100+ targets over the last three years.

Note These Lower-Body Injuries

Otton missed the final three games of last season with a knee injury but was able to return and play his usual role in Tampa Bay’s playoff loss.

Otton did not miss any games with injury across his first two NFL seasons but suffered a high-ankle sprain and fibula fracture that ended his final college season in 2021.

2025 Expectations

Otton Likely to Start Again

The Buccaneers made no additions at TE this offseason, returning Payn Durham, Ko Kieft, and Devin Culp behind Otton. Those guys combined for two catches (both from Durham) in Otton’s 14 games last year.

Otton is entering the final year of his rookie deal but is relatively safe as Tampa Bay’s clear lead TE this season.

Target Competition Gets Tougher

Otton will face tough competition for targets in 2025, with WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all back. Godwin is working back from the dislocated left ankle that ended his 2024 season but is tentatively expected to be ready come Week 1. Tampa Bay gave him a new three-year, $66 million deal in March, so there doesn’t seem to be any long-term concern about the ankle.

The Bucs also used the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft to add WR Emeka Egbuka. Ohio State’s all-time leader in career receiving yards (2,868) is an NFL-ready prospect who figures to surpass and upgrade on McMillan.

Tampa Bay also has a pair of strong pass-catching RBs in Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.

What's the New Play Caller Gonna Do?

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Otton in His Prime

Otton heads into his fourth NFL season at 26 years old. TEs peak at age-25 on average, according to our aging-curve research, but we can still expect 96-98% of peak production at 26.

Where Do The Buccaneers Land In The Rankings?

How do guys like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin fit into your draft plan? Only one way to find out: Get a customized fantasy football cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league's exact scoring rules and starting requirements. The result is a set of rankings custom crafted to crush your draft.

Fire up your Draft War Room now!

Next Up

Kellen Moore and Play Volume Could Make the Saints a Sneaky Fantasy Offense

Next Article