Baker Mayfield Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Mayfield is coming off a huge 2024 season, finishing fourth among QBs in total fantasy points and points per game.

His 4,500 passing yards ranked third league-wide, and his 41 passing TDs tied for second behind only Joe Burrow’s 43.

Mayfield tacked on 378 yards and three TDs on the ground — both top-11 marks among QBs.

He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in 13 of his 17 outings. That included eight top-five finishes — a number topped by only Lamar Jackson.

Usage & Role

Mayfield’s 570 pass attempts ranked fifth league-wide. His 7.4-yard average target depth ranked just 25th among 32 qualifiers. But his 3,971 intended air yards ranked ninth.

Mayfield finished fifth among QBs in expected fantasy points per game, behind Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels.

Efficiency Metrics

Mayfield completed 71.4% of his passes last year — a career high and third best among 32 qualifying QBs league wide. His 78.7% adjusted completion rate, which accounts for drops and throwaways, tied for sixth.

Mayfield’s 7.9 yards per attempt was also a personal best and ranked sixth league wide.

Mayfield led the league with a huge 7.2% passing TD rate. In fact, it was the seventh-highest rate among 228 QB seasons of 400+ pass attempts over the last 10 seasons.

Offensive Context

The 2024 Buccaneers ranked sixth in total plays. Their 55.9% pass rate ranked just 20th. But they finished 10th in total pass attempts.

Tampa Bay leaned more on the pass in the red zone, ranking 14th in red-zone pass rate and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected.

Mayfield’s top two WRs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, missed 13 total games last year. With both guys on the field for the first seven games of the season, Mayfield averaged 265.6 yards and 2.6 TDs per game. With Godwin out for the final 10, and Evans out for three of those, Mayfield’s averages dipped a tad to 264.1 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.

The Bucs sank from a 57.9% pass rate over the first seven games to 54.5% over the last 10.

Historical Production & Trends

Mayfield set career highs last year in:

• Completion rate
• Adjusted completion rate
• Yards per attempt
• Pass yards
• Pass TDs
• Pass TD rate
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

He smashed his previous career high in fantasy points per game. In fact, Mayfield didn’t finish better than QB18 in points per game in any of his first six NFL seasons — and that came back in his 2018 rookie year.

Mayfield ranked 21st in points per game in his Bucs debut in 2023.

Injury History

Mayfield has played all 34 games over the past two seasons.

He missed two games in 2021 with a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder that required surgery and two games in 2022 with a high-ankle sprain.

Mayfield also missed time with a right knee injury and sustained two concussions in college.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Mayfield remains locked in as Tampa Bay’s starter, heading into the second season of a three-year, $100,000 million contract signed in March 2024.

Supporting Cast

The Bucs return all seven players who saw 50+ targets last year:

• Mike Evans
• Chris Godwin
• Jalen McMillan
• Sterling Shepard
• Cade Otton
• Bucky Irving
• Rachaad White

Godwin is working back from the dislocated left ankle that ended his 2024 season but is tentatively expected to be ready come Week 1. Tampa Bay gave him a new three-year, $66 million deal in March, so there doesn’t seem to be any long-term concern about the ankle.

The Bucs also used the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft to add WR Emeka Egbuka. Ohio State’s all-time leader in career receiving yards (2,868) is an NFL-ready prospect who figures to surpass and upgrade on McMillan.

Irving and White are both excellent pass-catching backs, giving Mayfield a potent and deep pass-catching corps.

On the offensive line, the Bucs return all five starters from a unit that last year ranked:

• 2nd in Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade
• 5th in ESPN pass block win rate

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

It was one-and-done for Liam Coen as Bucs OC. After leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year, he bolted to take the HC job in Jacksonville in January.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Grizzard will be Tampa Bay's fourth different OC in the last four years — and Mayfield's ninth different play caller as a pro.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Mayfield will have trouble matching last year’s historic 7.2% pass TD rate.

There have been 11 other seasons of a 7+% TD rate in NFL history. Here’s how those QBs fared the following year:

• Only one reached 7%
• Seven of 11 dipped below 5.5%
• Four of 11 dipped below 4.5%

Mayfield threw a score on 4.6% of his passes over his first six NFL seasons, including 4.9% in 2023 with the Bucs.

We currently project him for a 5.5% TD rate this year.