Tetairoa McMillan Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

College Production

The No. 4 WR prospect in the 2022 recruiting class, McMillan eschewed offers from big-name football programs to reunite with his high school QB at Arizona.

McMillan made an immediate impact. He led Arizona with eight TDs and led all true freshmen with 702 receiving yards in 2022.

Then came a breakout sophomore season. McMillan overtook then-redshirt junior, now 49ers WR Jacob Cowing as Arizona’s top target. He led the team with 130 targets, 90 catches, and 1,396 receiving yards. The catches and yards were both top-nine marks in the country.

Despite a lower-leg injury that required surgery in April 2024, McMillan turned in a strong junior campaign. In fact, his 7.0 catches and 109.9 yards per game were both career highs. He accounted for a massive 44% of Arizona’s receiving yards and TDs.

McMillan’s 2.87 yards per route last year was also a personal best and ranked seventh among 49 WRs at the Combine. He ranked fifth in that group in yards per team pass attempt.

If there’s a concern with McMillan’s college resume, it’s that 25% of his career targets were contested. For comparison, just 14% of Travis Hunter’s targets were contested; 16% for Emeka Egbuka.

High contested target rates sometimes point to an inability to separate. But with McMillan, it was more a case of Arizona force-feeding him the ball even when he wasn’t open.

Size & Athleticism

McMillan goes 6’4, 219 pounds with a 65th percentile wingspan and 87th percentile hand size.

He didn’t work out at the Combine but clocked a 4.48-second 40 time at his Pro Day (although some scouts reportedly hand-timed him in the mid-4.5 range).

Injury History

McMillan suffered a lower-leg injury during practice in April 2024. He had what HC Brent Brennan called a “little procedure” and was sidelined until August. McMillan was ready for the season opener, though, and played all 12 games.

In fact, McMillan played in all 37 of Arizona’s games over the last three seasons.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Despite glaring holes on defense, the Panthers used the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on McMillan.

“Tet McMillan has really good play speed,” GM Dan Morgan said shortly after making the pick. “What pops off the tape about him is how smooth he is, his body control, his ability to adjust to all types of throws, his catch radius, and his hands are elite. He catches everything outside his frame, and he can win the jump ball down the field and in the red zone. He puts the ball in the end zone and that’s obviously something we want to do.”

McMillan joins a WR corps alongside Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Hunter Renfrow.

Thielen led the group with 61.5 receiving yards per game last year but will turn 35 in August. Legette and Coker are candidates for year-two leaps. But Legette underwhelmed as a rookie, while Coker went undrafted last year. The 29-year-old Renfrow returns after missing the 2024 season due to a bout with ulcerative colitis.

It’s a relatively uninspiring group, giving McMillan a good chance to immediately step in as Carolina’s top dog.

Supporting Cast

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate. Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way.

Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season. Canales still looks like a positive for Young’s development — and, therefore, McMillan’s fantasy outlook.

It’s worth noting that Canales’ 2023 Bucs team produced a pair of top-30 PPR WRs, with Mike Evans finishing WR7 and Chris Godwin WR29.

Production & Efficiency Trends

McMillan became the ninth receiver to be picked between No. 6 and No. 10 overall over the last 10 drafts. Here’s how the previous eight finished in PPR points per game as rookies: