You should be optimistic on Pitts

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts ranked just 22nd among TEs in PPR points per game last season. But the underlying numbers show a lot more upside. Pitts ranked second among all TEs in target share, trailing only Mark Andrews. He ranks 14th all-time among TEs in receiving yards through two seasons, despite tying for just 28th in receptions and 137th in games played. Poor QB play and a high run rate clearly hurt last season. Pitts fared worse in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per route, and passer rating on balls thrown his way vs. 2021. Atlanta ran at the second-highest rate for the season. But the neutral pass rate climbed from 32nd in the league with Marcus Mariota behind center to 24th in Desmond Ridder's starts. The 2021 Falcons ranked 14th in neutral pass rate, in HC Arthur Smith's first season and with QB Matt Ryan. We're not betting on a return to that level, especially after the first-round selection of RB Bijan Robinson. But you should bet on the Falcons passing at least a little more in 2023. And the quality of passing should improve at least a little. Combine that with the talent Pitts has already displayed and an ADP lower than last year's, and you have a redraft bet with modest risk and plenty of upside. See where Pitts stands in our 2023 TE rankings.