How high is Chris Olave's ceiling in 2023?

Saints WR Chris Olave is a tough nut to crack regarding his 2023 outlook. Olave finished as the WR27 in PPR points per game and ranked 21st among all WRs in target share as a rookie last season, garnering 25.6% of Saints targets over his 15 games. His 2.42 yards per route also ranked seventh among 80 WRs with 50+ targets in 2022. It’s clear that Olave made the best of his team situation and can produce at a high level. The issue is, how much better can he be? New QB Derek Carr is a likely upgrade, but he isn’t a strong deep-ball passer. According to PFF, Carr’s 39.4% adjusted completion rate ranked just 24th among 36 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield) last year. Dalton ranked 34th by contrast. This is an important factor considering 23.7% of Olave’s targets last year were 20+ yard deep shots. A healthy WR Michael Thomas could also be an issue in 2023, though Olave’s target share was slightly higher over the first three weeks of last season when Thomas was healthy than it was from Week 4 on without him. We expect Olave to have a strong sophomore season, though we’re cautious. See where he stands in our current WR rankings.