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Buy/Sell/Hold Report #3

BUY Le’Veon Bell, RB, Jets

Bell nearly made it into the previous Buy/Sell/Hold Report, because he has been a solid buy for a few weeks now. Fortunately for us, the Jets limited his opportunities (for the 1st time all season) in the win over Dallas and extended that window.

Bell entered Week 6 second in the league in opportunities (carries + targets) per game behind only Christian McCaffrey. Then he carried only 14 times and drew just 1 target against the Cowboys. That dropped Bell all the way to … 3rd, behind McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette.

Bell’s averaging 23.6 opportunities per contest, and his offense looks ready to actually produce after QB Sam Darnold returned to rack up 338 yards and 2 TDs. A Week 7 clash with the Patriots hurts everyone’s outlook, but the schedule beyond that just might be the most fantasy-friendly across positions.

Buy Bell now before a big game closes the window.

BUY Tevin Coleman, RB, 49ers

Coleman is the lead RB for the league’s most run-heavy offense, yet he sits just 27th among RBs in PPR points per game so far. Blame the high-ankle sprain.

We have only seen 2 full games from Coleman so far, after he left Week 1 early and then missed the next 2 (with a Week 4 bye thrown in). He returned to lead San Francisco in rushing attempts in the Week 5 win over Cleveland, taking 16 handoffs for 97 yards and a TD. Coleman split playing time with Matt Breida -- who technically started and played 1 more snap -- and Raheem Mostert, who cleaned up in garbage time and played just 1 fewer snap. Coleman ranked 3rd among that group in pass routes.

The usage changed against the Rams on Sunday, however, when Coleman out-snapped Breida 43-27 (Mostert played just 7), played 22 passing downs vs. 13 for Breida and drew 21 opportunities (18 carries, 3 targets). A rushing TD made his fantasy day, while a mere 61 total yards (3.05 per touch) kept it from being anything special.

San Francisco has run on a league-high 56% of its offensive plays so far, and the defense looks legit -- perhaps even best in the league. That all sets up Coleman for wonderful game scripts and touch certainty going forward. Buy him before a trip to Washington that could deliver a big game.

BUY DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

We issued a BUY order on the entire Texans passing game in the last Buy/Sell/Hold Report. A few days later, WR Will Fuller exploded for a 14-217-3 line. QB Deshaun Watson led his position in fantasy points that week and then ranked 4th last week. Big hits.

Hopkins hasn’t hit yet — but that just means that the buying window remains open.

The perennial WR1 is sitting “just” 15th in PPR points and 20th in non-PPR through 6 weeks. But Hopkins ranks 5th among WRs in targets and 4th in catches.

The problem is that he’s averaging only 10.1 yards per catch and has scored just twice. We’ll gladly bet on both numbers climbing the rest of the way.

Over the previous 4 seasons, Hopkins averaged 13.6 yards per catch and scored on 9.8% of his catches. If we give him those rates this season, he’d be sitting on 544 yards and 4 TDs. And he’d rank 4th at his position in PPR points.

See if you can pry Hopkins away from his owner before his big “Will Fuller Game” comes.

BUY Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals

Kirk opened the season with encouraging volume, drawing 37 targets over the first 4 games. That’s 9.3 per contest and 21.9% of Kyler Murray’s total attempts over that span (and 1 more target than Larry Fitzgerald through 4 shared games). Then came his ankle sprain.

That has kept Kirk out of the past 2 contests, games in which the Cardinals have racked up 514 yards and 442 yards. QB Kyler Murray posted his 2 best Pro Football Focus passing grades of the year so far in those games (against the Bengals and Falcons), and the Cardinals delivered their 2 largest yards-per-play rates.

So when Kirk returns, he’ll come back to an offense that appears to be improving -- or at least capable of exploiting good matchups. Kirk could be ready as soon as this week, when the Giants present the next positive matchup. The Giants are currently providing the 6th-largest fantasy-scoring boost to both QBs and WRs, according to our Strength of Schedule formula.

Kirk’s 10.1 yards per catch points to short-range work so far, but 2 of his outings have produced solid average target depths of 12.0 (Detroit) and 9.9 yards (Seattle). And his stats include the 2 toughest matchups Arizona has yet faced: Detroit ranks 10th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense efficiency; Carolina 3rd. Kirk’s 0 TDs on the year are the main reason he sits just 45th among WRs in PPR points per game.

A healthy Kirk could be in for a big outing at the Giants this Sunday. And an attractive trip to Tampa Bay awaits in Week 10. Just beware of overpaying for Kirk, as 2 matchups with San Francisco and a Week 12 bye lie within the next 6 weeks.

SELL Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings

Whew! Did you see that performance against Philly? That’s the Diggs we’ve been waiting for! And now it’s time to sell him.

That guy simply isn’t going to surface much this year. Even coming off an 11-target outing, Diggs still ranks just 47th at the position in targets per game with 5.7. Sunday marked the 1st time this year he has topped 7 looks. He averaged 9.9 per game last year, dipping to 7 or fewer just 6 times in 15 games. And 4 of those came within the season’s final 5 weeks.

Before Sunday, Diggs had drawn just 18.3% of Kirk Cousins’ attempts through 5 games. Even his updated 21.9% share marks a drop from last year’s 24.6%, which included missing a game. The fact that Minnesota has attempted a league-low 25.8 pass attempts per week magnifies the target-share dip. Diggs’ share would be just fine in Atlanta or Arizona or Cincinnati. But it will breed continued inconsistency in Minnesota.

A Week 7 matchup with Detroit isn’t positive, though the Lions have looked good enough that they could motivate more passing volume for the Vikings. You could also hold Diggs through the high-ceiling Week 8 matchup with Washington. The schedule doesn’t look helpful beyond that, though. And it’s hard to imagine Diggs’ perceived value climbing much higher than it should be right now.

SELL Terry McLaurin, WR, Redskins

Credit McLaurin for what he’s done as a Round 3 rookie.

Through 6 weeks (5 games played), he’s delivered 23 catches, 408 yards and 5 TDs. That’s 17.7 yards per catch and 18.8 PPR points per game — enough to rank 6th among WRs.

He’s done all of that with Case Keenum and Colt McCoy under center.

But the party’s likely coming to an end — and soon.

McLaurin’s enjoyed a pair of matchups against 2 of the league’s worst secondaries: Philadelphia and Miami. Those outings produced 9 catches, 225 yards and 3 TDs. Sure, he’ll face the Eagles again — but not until Week 15.

Instead, McLaurin will enter a rough stretch in the schedule that includes San Francisco, Minnesota and Buffalo before a Week 10 bye. Our Strength of Schedule numbers show only 3 more positives matchups for Washington WRs going forward.

Beyond the opponents, McLaurin’s a strong candidate for regression. His 21.7% TD rate is 2nd highest among 78 WRs with 20+ targets. And his current PPR points-per-game pace would rank 3rd all-time among rookie WRs behind Randy Moss and Odell Beckham.

SELL Patriots DST

A Draft Sharks member recently emailed us asking whether he should acquire either Michael Gallup or JuJu Smith-Schuster in exchange for the Patriots DST.

And if that’s the type of return, it’s time to put the Pats D up for sale.

Yes, they’ve been incredible. Facing a ridiculously soft schedule (Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Redskins, Giants), New England has 14 INTs and 4 TDs. That’s 5 INTs and 1 TD more than the next closest teams.

But that pace will slow as their schedule stiffens a bit. The last time New England reached 4 DST scores was 2012. They last reached 14 INTs in 2014, while their 10 current fumble recoveries haven’t been exceeded since 2013.

New England remains our top defense rest-of-way, but they’re clearly sellable if you have a hole to fill elsewhere.

HOLD James Conner, RB, Steelers

Conner got off to a slow start but has more recently produced like the 1st-round fantasy pick that he was. He ranks 4th among RBs in PPR points and 6th in non-PPR over the past 3 weeks.

We have some concerns going forward, though.

First, he’s been fueled by 4 total TDs over those last 3 games. That’s a lofty rate for anyone to maintain — and it’s especially lofty considering the state of the Steelers’ offense, particularly the QB position.

Then there are the injuries. Conner hurt his left knee in Week 2, twisted an ankle in Week 4 and suffered a quad contusion in Week 6. Remember, too, that this guy missed 3 games late last season with a sprained ankle. He also needed knee surgery at the end of his 2017 rookie campaign. It’s fair to wonder if his body will hold up the rest of the way — or if the Steelers will start giving more work to Jaylen Samuels and/or Benny Snell.

So why is Conner a HOLD?

For starters, we know that a lot of fantasy teams are thin at RB. So it might make sense to hang on to a guy who should at least provide RB2 production when he’s healthy.

Conner also faces a favorable schedule the rest of the way. He returns from the Week 7 bye for a juicy matchup with the Dolphins. Then his next 6 games feature 2 neutral matchups and 4 defenses ranked bottom 8 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Overall, it’s the 6th easiest remaining RB schedule.

If you’re stocked with 3+ bankable fantasy starters at RB, we’d look into selling high on Conner right now. Otherwise, we’d hold him at least through that Dolphins game.

HOLD Sony Michel, RB, Patriots

We’ve talked about selling Michel multiple times on the podcast over the past few weeks. If you didn’t unload him already, though, now looks like a good time to sit tight.

His performance has improved in recent outings. Michel went from 2.4 yards per rush over his 1st 3 games to 4.4 over his past 3. His Pro Football Focus grades point to improvement as well:

Most importantly, volume has remained on Michel’s side. He has seen at least 15 carries in 5 of 6 contests, averaging 16.7 a week. And his passing-game involvement has spiked the past 2 weeks. Michel went from 0 targets and just 16 total routes over the 1st four games to 6 targets and 33 routes over the past 2.

Perhaps that changes once Rex Burkhead gets back to full health, but a fully healthy Burkhead has been as easy to spot as the tooth fairy over the past few years. Michel’s recent target growth also matches up with summer reports that the Patriots planned to use him more as a receiver this season.

Don’t let your frustration over watching 3 New England rushing TDs go to other players against the Giants impact your decision making. Michel was in the backfield for both of Tom Brady’s scoring sneaks and likely would have gotten the call had either opportunity started another yard away from the goal line.

Michel’s set up with strong volume on an undefeated team with 1 of the league’s top defenses. And our Strength-of-Schedule page pegs New England’s remaining slate as the 4th most friendly to RB scoring.

HOLD D.J. Chark, WR, Jaguars

Chark has been super productive through 6 weeks. He’s also probably playing over his head.

The 2nd-year wideout has averaged 12.0 yards per target and scored on 16.7% of his catches. Those marks rank 3rd and 8th among 78 WRs with 20+ targets.

Chark is good — but he’s not THAT good.

That lofty efficiency has propped him to the 5th most PPR points among WRs and the 2nd most non-PPR points. Chark is sitting 19th at his position in targets.

19th is much closer to what we should expect for his fantasy production going forward. If you can get WR1 value in return for him, pull the trigger. But considering he isn’t exactly a household name — and that fact that he’s coming off a 3-43 line against CB Marshon Lattimore and the Saints — we’re guessing that Chark won’t return that much in a trade this week.

Now Chark gets 3 plus matchups in a row against the Bengals, Jets and Texans. If he blows up for another big game in any of those spots, we’d at least shop him around and see what kind of return you can get.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.