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Buy/Sell/Hold Report #5

BUY Sony Michel, RB, Patriots

Michel is coming off his worst outing of the season: 5 touches for 30 total yards in the loss to the Ravens. He’s likely headed for another bad one this weekend in a Philly matchup that should funnel action to the passing game. Michel has another such spot at Houston in Week 13, and Rex Burkhead recently returned to complicate the backfield.

Wait … isn’t this supposed to be a case for BUYING him?

The Michel owner in your league probably realizes that New England’s lead ball carrier has been a TD-reliant, inconsistent fantasy producer. That person might even realize the 2 negative rushing matchups that lie within the next 3 weeks. But you’re buying Michel for what lies beyond that (as long as you don’t have to overpay).

Michel and the Patriots host the Chiefs in Week 14, visit the Bengals in Week 15 and host the Bills in Week 16. (And if your league plays through Week 17, then you get a bonus home date with the Dolphins.) According to our fantasy points allowed formula, those are the 3rd, 4th and 2nd best scoring matchups for RBs at the moment -- in the most important weeks of your fantasy season.

It’s OK to drool a little as you make your trade proposal.

BUY Davante Adams, WR, Packers

We’ve seen 3 games from Adams post- turf toe:

Week 9 at Chargers: 11 targets, 7 catches, 41 yards

Week 10 vs. Panthers: 10 targets, 7 catches, 118 yards

Remarkably, he’s yet to score on his 39 catches this year. But over the past 2 weeks, he’s seen huge market shares: 32.8% of the team’s targets, 35% of the team’s catches and 40% of the team’s yards.

In short: Adams’ TDs will surface. And soon. We’re talking about a bona fide playmaker with a career TD rate north of 10%. The Packers remain thin at WR. And there haven’t been any red flags with Aaron Rodgers, Pro Football Focus’ #2 graded passer.

Green Bay enters a Week 11 bye before facing a tough San Francisco secondary. But if you can stomach that stretch — and use it to reduce Adams’ price — the final month looks mostly golden.

BUY Odell Beckham, WR, Browns

Beckham’s efficiency has stunk so far. He’s scored only once and has caught only 55.6% of his targets. Without question, he hasn’t returned value on a late Round 1 ADP.

But that doesn’t lock the former Giant into a disappointing finish. Only 9 WRs have recorded more targets than Beckham’s 79. He’s on pace for a hefty 140 looks.

Coming off a 12-target game vs. Buffalo, volume remains a positive for the road ahead. The Bills matchup produced 3 end zone targets — two where Beckham drew flags.

Even without the scores, Beckham’s enjoyed a promising stretch with 5+ catches in 4 straight. If the TDs rebound — as we’d expect — a WR1 season going forward is within reach. Future matchups vs. Miami and Cincinnati provide potential blowup spots.

BUY Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

You knew Williams was in for TD regression after last season. It’s hard to match 10 TDs on 43 catches.

This year, though, the regression has really hit hard. Despite 57 total targets and 10 red zone targets — including 5 inside the 10 — Williams hasn’t found the end zone. That right there is set to change for a talented young WR standing 6’4, 220 pounds.

Williams isn’t just a red zone weapon, though. He’s tallied nearly 19.0 yards per catch with help from 894 air yards, a mark only 9 WRs have beat. Perhaps he gets on the board this week in a likely shootout against the Chiefs. Then after a Week 12 bye, there’s not a particularly daunting matchup left on the schedule. Williams is a true low-risk, high-reward trade target.

BUY Gerald Everett, TE, Rams

Most of our BUY recommendations are guys who have disappointed throughout the season, recently or both. Everett doesn’t qualify as a buy low. He’s sitting 11th among TEs in PPR points on the year and is coming off an 8-catch game.

But sometimes it makes sense to buy-kinda-high. That’s the case here.

Everett’s recent usage has been even better than his production. Among TEs, only Travis Kelce has seen more targets than Everett’s 49 since Week 4. He’s tallied 5+ looks in 5 of his last 6 games and 8+ in 4 of the last 6.

That’s steady volume at a position that tends to be anything but steady. And with WR Brandin Cooks out indefinitely with his latest concussion, the targets should continue to flow for Everett.

The cherry on top is his schedule. The Rams sport the easiest remaining TE slate, with 4 of their next 5 games coming against bottom 8 defenses in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

If you’re not blessed with a top-6 TE, make an aggressive offer to acquire Everett for the stretch run.

SELL Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

If you drafted our honorable mention Breakout Pick, you’ve profited big so far. A 3rd-rounder in most fantasy drafts, Jones is sitting 3rd among RBs across fantasy scoring systems.

But this might be a good time to cash in your Jones chips as he comes off a 3-score explosion. TDs have been fueling his fantasy production. Jones is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the lead league among RBs with 14 scores. But he ranks just 11th in total touches and 9th in total yards.

His volume has sunk further alongside a healthy Jamaal Williams. Jones has averaged just 11.4 carries and 3.2 catches per game over the past 5 weeks. And note that his targets have been closely tied to Davante Adams’ availability. Jones averaged 6.8 targets in the 4 games Adams missed. In the other 6, he’s averaged just 3.2.

Jones is more likely to produce as a borderline RB1 than a high-end RB1 the rest of the way. Try flipping him for a RB like Leonard Fournette or Josh Jacobs. Or, if you’re deep at RB, you could move Jones for an elite WR.

SELL Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians told us all last week that Jones had finally “earned” the right to serve as the starter going forward. And then Jones went out and finished the week 5th among PPR backs and 6th in non-PPR.

So what’s not to like here? The way that he did it.

Jones carried exactly as many times in that game -- a home win -- as Peyton Barber did (11). Jones delivered a nice 7-yard TD run in the 1st quarter, but he also totaled just 29 yards against a weak run D -- 14 yards fewer than Barber tallied.

The receiving work was excellent. Jones racked up 8 catches and 77 yards on 8 targets, beating Chris Godwin in yards and doubling Mike Evans’ reception total. We should certainly expect an elevated receiving role going forward. But Jones’ 8 catches doubled his season total. All Buccaneers RBs combined are averaging just 5.1 catches per game for the season.

In short, Jones posted his big fantasy numbers Sunday in an outlier type of game. Is he probably going to deliver at least another couple of useful outings? Yeah, probably … assuming he continues to work as the “starter.” But we’d also bet on Jones remaining inconsistent in his production. His next shot comes against a Saints D that has been 5th-toughest on RB scoring for the season. Only a Week 15 trip to Detroit stands out as a clearly positive RB matchup.

If you can find someone willing to pay at least a solid-to-strong RB2 price in trade, then moving Jones looks like a good idea.

HOLD D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks

Metcalf seems to stack up like a sell-high. Over his past 3 games, the rookie has scored 2 TDs among just 3 receptions against a terrible Atlanta pass D, and then followed with his only 2 games of more than 4 catches all year. And Seattle just got WR Josh Gordon onto the field for the 1st time.

But the Seahawks also watched lead WR Tyler Lockett suffer a leg injury late in the win over the 49ers that landed him in the hospital. Early reports have him likely to be ready after the Week 11 bye, but we’ll see how long it takes him to get back to 100%.

The final weight that tips Metcalf from “sell” to “hold” is Russell Wilson, who raises the efficiency of any skill guy who plays with him. And it doesn’t hurt the WR that Seattle will return from bye to face Philly and Minnesota defenses that are average against the pass and strong against the run.

If someone in your league comes along trying to pay up for Metcalf, seeing a potential lead wideout in the wake of Lockett’s injury, then certainly consider the offer. Otherwise, sit tight on the youngster.

HOLD O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers

Our initial reaction was to sell Howard off his big game against the Cardinals’ league-worst TE defense.

But then we started digging into his underlying usage and came away a bit more optimistic about his rest-of-season fantasy value. Howard set season highs vs. Arizona with a 99% snap rate and a 76% route rate. His 7 targets were also a season high.

Did the Bucs just expand Howard’s role for this plus matchup? Possibly.

But it’s also possible that they’ve come to their senses and are ready to make Howard a significant part of the passing game the rest of the way. If that’s the case, Howard will be a good bet for top-10 production.

He’s certainly sellable if you have 1 of the few locked-in weekly starters at TE. Otherwise, hang on and let’s see what his usage looks like in Week 11 vs. the Saints.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.