Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 9: Inject Youth Into Your Title Run

Different List After Travis Huner's Injury

Jaguars WR Travis Hunter led the "buy" recommendations when we published this early Thursday morning. But then his knee buckled under the weight of those expectations.

So he's gone from the list, leaving behind a fellow rookie coming off a cold streak and a sophomore WR who hasn't quite made it back to the field yet.

On the other side, we've made a sharp turn on a lead WR. Plus we're doubting a sudden TD maven and restating a QB's case from last week (because now it's really time).

Here they are ...

Week 9 Buys

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• Ricky Pearsall

Week 9 Sells

• Chris Olave
• Dallas Goedert
• Bo Nix

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Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

These guys shouldn't cost a lot now but could pay off big time late in the season.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders

This seventh-round rookie has been buzzing since the summer, but that buzz hasn’t always been constant. Just like his production.

“Bill” gave us a TD right away, amid a 10-82-1 rushing line in the Week 1 win over the Giants. But then he logged just 19 total carries across the next three games. And managed only 3 catches for 15 through four games.

Then came a seeming breakout at the Chargers: 14-111-2 on the ground and 2 catches for 39 yards on season-high playing time. You either had him or didn’t at that point. Too late to get on board …

Or was it? 

Three Rough Weeks Might Mean Opportunity

JCM has stunk the past three weeks, an 0-3 stretch for his team. Just check out the numbers …

Pretty rough. RB49 in total PPR points over that span (including 12 players ahead of him who played just two games); RB44 in half-PPR and RB42 in non-PPR as well.

But the usage remained good. Croskey-Merritt’s playing time stayed up. And he ranks 23rd league wide in carry share over the past three weeks, ahead of Alvin Kamara, D’Andre Swift, and Rhamondre Stevenson, among others.

His route rate has also picked up: from 19% across the first five weeks to 35.5% over the past three (30th at the position).

Your Situation Might Impact When to Buy

A lot of times, we plan these moves for instant impact. But Croskey-Merritt’s more of a longer-term play.

Washington sports the seventh-best remaining strength of schedule for RB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. But the two toughest matchups probably lie in the next two weeks:

• Week 9: Seattle sits second in run-defense DVOA and has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry to RBs for the season.
• Week 10: Detroit sits fourth-toughest on RB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed and first in total defensive DVOA.

If you’re seeking a RB to help you the next two weeks, this probably ain’t your guy. So why highlight him now?

If you can afford to stash JCM and be patient, the payoff could be large.

A Miami matchup (likely with Jayden Daniels back healthy) awaits in Week 11. And after Washington’s Week 12 bye, Croskey-Merritt gets the fifth-best RB schedule. That includes high-ceiling matchups with the Giants and Cowboys in the fantasy playoffs.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Remember this guy? He used to play receiver for the Niners, back in September. But we haven’t seen him in a game since Week 4. And that’s the start of the case for getting him.

“If They’ve Held on to Him This Long …”

Let’s start by attacking a potential counter to buying Pearsall. Why would any fantasy manager who has held the WR through four inactive games sell him as he gets closer to returning?

Fair question. But it’s built on top of a bad assumption.

If someone’s been holding Pearsall the past four weeks in your league, then it’s probably not because they’re tirelessly fending off trade proposals. It’s more likely simply that they don’t want to dump Pearsall to waivers for some guy who just ran 17 routes for the Texans.

They might still like the upside on Pearsall, the production he posted earlier this year. But I can guarantee you that person hates rostering a dead spot. And every week that Pearsall doesn’t play makes his rest-of-season value more difficult to assess.

Let’s Dig Into His Value

Despite his long absence for the knee injury -- and Pearsall still wasn’t practicing Wednesday -- we have the second-year wideout highest among 49ers WRs in our rest-of-season rankings.

Why?

The four games he played before the injury still land Pearsall sixth among all WRs in air-yards share. His 0.22 targets per route trails only Christian McCaffrey among 49ers. And Pearsall ranks 12th in yards per route among all WRs who have seen at least 10 targets this season.

The 49ers want to get him the ball. They work him downfield. And he has done well with opportunities dating back to last season.

Pearsall has two top-20 PPR finishes in four games this season, despite scoring no TDs so far. And he finished last year with a pair of top-14 weeks.

Niners Players and Schedule Getting Healthier

Although Pearsall’s not back on the field yet, QB Brock Purdy’s nearing a return from his toe injury. That should enhance an offense that recently returned TE George Kittle and has seen WR Jauan Jennings heal up (while not producing a whole lot).

They’ll all find a favorable schedule. San Francisco specifically gets the eighth-best remaining schedule for WR scoring. And the “worst” matchup by our numbers in that run is a Week 12 home date with Carolina.

(The Panthers rank 20th in pass DVOA. They might be limiting opponent WR scoring, but it’s not because they sport a tough defense.)

Pearsall’s bound to be easier to acquire before he returns to the field. Sure, there’s risk in buying a guy who’s still dealing with a knee injury. But if you’re holding out for risk-free trades, then you’re probably not going to get much done.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 8 Report

• The hamstring injury that knocked Brown out last week added risk, but it also almost certainly lowered his price.
• Another week without Lamar Jackson didn't stop the Ravens from hanging 30 on the Bears. Henry tallied 2 TDs, and Flowers posted a solid 7-63 receiving line on nine targets. You can still try for either guy, but it might not work.

Week 7 Report

• Judkins hurt a shoulder and then hit his bye week. That combo likely lowered his price further.
• Good luck finding a Hall manager looking to see off his 18-133-2 rushing line vs. Cincinnati.
• Pacheco's MCL sprain looks particularly complicating because there's a chance it allows teammates to earn more work even once he's back.

Sell These Players

The main purpose for trading is improving your team, of course. In the case of this first player, though, playing tthe market might be the way to do so.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

It was just three weeks ago that we listed Olave as a “buy.” And it worked out.

Here are his three stat lines since that article ran:

• 6-98
• 5-98-2
• 8-63

Olave posted his three largest yardage totals of the year and ranked fourth among WRs in total PPR points over that span. He went from scoring way below his expected fantasy points through Week 5 to scoring above expectation since then.

But although that helps the case for selling him, it’s certainly not the main reason.

Can We Really Count on Fantasy Points Here?

Let’s start with this: Olave should remain fine in PPR. He has seen the second-most targets among all players this season, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase. QB Tyler Shough will need to play absolutely horribly to stop Olave from at least being a decent floor play.

But we’re shooting for ceiling now as we try to make the playoffs and win fantasy championships. And the Saints look poorly constructed to push Olave near his ceiling.

Shough took over for Spencer Rattler in Week 8 and completed just 56.7% of his passes at 4.3 yards per attempt. The rookie targeted Olave six times and completed four, but for only 20 yards.

It’s one game, but how much can we really expect the rest of the way from a first-time NFL passer who reached 200 pass attempts just once across seven years in college (thanks to injury)?

The Schedule’s Not Helping

Shough now gets to hit the road for his first NFL start, facing a Rams defense that ranks second in total DVOA and second against the pass. And that’s the best remaining matchup for WR scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Even with that included, Olave gets the second-worst remaining schedule for WR scoring.

That schedule ranks worst from Week 10 on. And the bye still lies ahead (in Week 11).

And the offense remains bad overall. New Orleans ranks:

• 29th in points
• 27th in total yards
• 30th in yards per play
• T-26th in red-zone scoring attempts per game

Don’t Force That Trade, but Take a Shot

All the gloom doesn’t mean you should swap Olave for a banana peel. Remember, his sell case started with elevated fantasy production lately.

So you should be able to get a better price for him than the market said three weeks ago. And there will be fantasy managers optimistic about New Orleans switching QBs.

See if you can leverage that to get someone with more upside.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

This one might need to wait until Goedert’s back from his Week 9 bye. A TE on a break makes for a particularly tough sell.

But he’s worth moving when the opportunity arrives.

We Don’t Trust Your TD Rate

Goedert hits the bye tied for the league lead with 7 TD catches. That’s two more than his previous high for a season (5 back in 2019).

Those scores haven’t exactly been fluky. The Eagles have drawn up a surprising number of scoring opportunities for a guy who entered the year with just a 6.9% career TD rate. But they’ve also been unconventional.

Six of his seven scores have come from inside the red zone. Just one has come via an actual end-zone target, though, according to Pro Football Focus.

Goedert’s simply not likely to keep scoring this way, especially when you consider that four of his past six games have included 3 receptions or fewer. Goedert sits 11th in expected PPR points per game -- solid, but well short of his No. 4 ranking in actual points per game.

And all that’s been without the run game working and A.J. Brown’s production lagging.

Trading Goedert Might Prove Tricky

As I mentioned before, trying to move a TE on his bye week could be tough. Why? Managers are simply less likely to be looking to pick up an inactive player at a one-starter position. That means they’d at least need to carry an extra TE for this week, while also considering Goedert a significant upgrade over what they already have.

That’s where you should start your search: Look for teams that already have a Week 9 TE starter but could use a production boost at the position. From there, you’re probably best off building Goedert into a multi-player trade. 

If you’ve already got another decent tight end, try sending Goedert plus a guy from another position for an upgrade at another spot.

If you’d need a TE back, try to target a two-for-two swap.

And if you need to wait until the Eagles return from their bye, so be it.

The main point: Goedert’s almost certainly not going to score the rest of the way like he has so far.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

We included Nix in this space last week, but we did so acknowledging the Dallas matchup he exploited on Sunday.

I wrote: “Nix gets the best fantasy matchup for QB scoring this week in the Cowboys. So you could wait until after that one, hope for another big score, and then try to shop him.”

If you did that, you got the big score. Nix followed his QB1 finish in Week 7 with a QB6 finish last week on his third-best score of the season.

His second-best came against the Bengals in Week 4. So Nix has been a terrific option against bad defenses. Otherwise? One finished higher than QB18, and three of QB20 or lower.

Try hard to unload him ahead of this week’s visit to Houston, the worst scoring matchup for QBs.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 8 Report

Week 7 Report

• Dowdle changes this week. If you didn't sell him already, then you might get a value boost going forward. The Athletic's Joe Person said this week he believes HC Dave Canales is "going to give Rico Dowdle the lion's share of carries" based on the coach's words.
• Kelce undoubtedly got easier to sell with that big game against Washington. Of course, that he could still be such a focal point in a given game -- and find so much open space and deliver after the catch -- also makes him OK to hold.

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Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways From Week 8 Usage

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.