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Lessons from 3 Winning FFPC Divisional Round Playoff Challenge Rosters

If you’re taking your shot at winning the FFPC Divisional Round Playoff Challenge, we have something for you.

We’ve broken down the rosters from the last three winners to see if we can glean any lessons for you.  Here’s what we got:

Divisional Round Challenge Rules  

First let’s take a look at the rules.

• You pick only one player from each remaining NFL playoff team (so 8 players)
• Roster is 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• Standard FFPC scoring rules (TEs get 1.5 points per reception)
• Contest goes through the Super Bowl
• Players in the Super Bowl get double points
• Winning roster takes down $100,000 (for a $200 entry fee)

The Winning Rosters

2021-22 Season

QB Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills (#3 seed AFC)
RB Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#2 seed NFC)
RB Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers (#1 seed NFC)  
WR A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans (#1 seed AFC)
WR Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals (#4 seed AFC)
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs (#2 seed AFC)
Flex (WR): Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams (#4 seed NFC)  
Flex (WR): Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers (#6 seed NFC) 

Flex Combination

WR Cooper Kupp
WR Deebo Samuel

Super Bowl Result

Rams (#4 NFC seed) vs. Bengals (#4 AFC seed)

Super Bowl Participants: 2 WRs

WR Cooper Kupp (8-92-2)  
WR Tee Higgins (4-100-2)

2022-23 Season 

QB Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles (#1 seed NFC) 
RB Saquon Barkley – New York Giants (#6 seed NFC)  
RB: Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers (#2 seed NFC)
WR Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars (#4 seed AFC)  
WR CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys (#5 seed NFC)  
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs (#1 seed AFC)  
Flex (RB) Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals (#3 seed AFC)  
Flex (TE) Dawson Knox – Buffalo Bills (#2 seed AFC)

Flex Combination

RB Joe Mixon 
TE Dawson Knox

Super Bowl Result 

Chiefs (#1 AFC seed) vs. Eagles (#1 NFC seed)  

Super Bowl Participants: 1 TE and 1 QB

TE Travis Kelce (6-81-1) 
QB Jalen Hurts (304-1-0 passing; 15-70-3 rushing)

2023-24 Season

QB Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens (#1 seed AFC) 
RB Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers (#1 seed NFC)  
RB James Cook – Buffalo Bills (#2 seed AFC)  
WR Nico Collins – Houston Texans (#4 seed AFC)  
WR Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#4 seed NFC)  
TE Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions (#3 seed NFC)  
Flex (TE) Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs (#3 seed AFC)  
Flex (RB) Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers (#7 seed NFC)

Flex Combination  

TE Travis Kelce  
RB Aaron Jones

Super Bowl Result

Chiefs (#3 AFC) vs. 49ers (#1 NFC)

Super Bowl Participants: 1 TE and 1 RB

TE Travis Kelce (9-93-0)  
RB Christian McCaffrey (22-80-0 rushing; 8-80-1 receiving)  

What You Need To Know

1. Focus on Super Bowl Upside (Double Points)

You have to lock down a pair of studs who are going to reach the Super Bowl (where you’ll score double points). 

But going with the highest seeds isn’t always a guarantee. We see examples in which a pair of #4 seeds played, a pair of #1 seeds played, and a combination of a #3 and #4 seeds played. 

Just picking a pair of studs from the Lions and Chiefs might not pan out for you. Identify the teams you believe have the best odds to reach New Orleans in February.

Current odds to reach the Super Bowl

AFC

Chiefs (+135)
Ravens (+210)
Bills (+240)
Texans (+1700)

NFC

Lions (+100)
Eagles (+165)
Rams (+750)
Commanders (+1000)

2. Don’t Overvalue QBs

It’s not necessarily a mistake to value QBs highly – after all, they often put up the biggest raw point totals. 

On the other hand, the data from these winning rosters suggests that having a QB who actually makes the Super Bowl isn’t a strict requirement for finishing first. In other words, “overvaluing” the QB position – or tunnel-visioning on getting the “Super Bowl QB”-- could mean missing out on other positions (like TE or RB) that can help you accumulate massive points throughout multiple playoff rounds. 

At bottom, there are opportunity costs – particularly this year – for picking either Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff. It would preclude you from adding studs like RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, or TEs Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta. 

Even if the Lions get to the Super Bowl, Jared Goff might not be the optimal pick for your team.

3. Find Each Team’s Most Valuable Asset  

Since you can’t stack players in this format, you should concentrate on picking the most productive player from each team. 

Yes, at times that might create conflict as you’re building your roster. If you’ve identified five WRs but can only roster a maximum of four – you’ll have decisions to make. 

Even so, you should identify the best single asset from all 8 teams: Is it the QB, or is it an elite skill-position player who might score more points (especially in FFPC, where TEs get 1.5 PPR)? 

Start there, then make strategic moves that give you the best chance for a high-powered team. That includes prioritizing the guys you think have the best chance of advancing to the Super Bowl. 

4. What Positions to Make Your Flex Spots

Back to the data about flex spots. Here’s how the three winning teams stacked up: 

• 2021-22: 2 WRs in flex
• 2022-23: RB + TE in flex  
• 2023-24: RB + TE in flex  

So it came out as 2 WRs, 2 RBs, and 2 TEs over the course of 3 winning rosters. The lesson here seems to underscore the lesson of “Find Each Team’s Most Valuable Asset.” Plug in the best WR, RB ,or TE that you don’t have rostered at their respective positions. Focusing on the player – as opposed to the position – is your best play at the flex spot.  

5. Final Takeaways to Help You Build a Winning Roster

These tips should help you to dig more deeply to build your roster:

• Consider the likelihood of a team reaching the Super Bowl (for those crucial “double points”).  
• Don’t necessarily grab your QB based on their likelihood of getting to the Super Bowl.  In our sampling, only one team had a QB who made the Super Bowl. That was Jalen Hurts, and he scored 3 rushing TDs in that game!!!
• Identify each team’s most valuable asset. The guy who really stands out as a fantasy-point producer. 
• Don’t obsess over what positions to pick for your flex spots. Again, any combination of WR, RB, or TE can win you $100,000. Go for the best players in terms of raw production.