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PrintPre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Talent + Opportunity = Fantasy Football Production
We only have 1 part of that equation for the incoming rookie class right now. But talent should weigh more heavily than opportunity in rookie rankings. Opportunity can and will change. Coaching staffs come and go. Offensive schemes are modified. And supporting cast turns over.
That’s why we do these Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings: To set a foundation, based purely on talent, to work from after we find out where all these guys will be playing.
Top 60
1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
Elliott checks all the boxes. Big college production, impressive tape and solid measurables. Oh — he doesn’t turn 21 until July. With a WR class lacking a sure-fire prospect, Elliott should be the 1st pick in your dynasty rookie draft.
Coleman has some flaws: He dropped 11% of his catchable targets over the past 2 seasons and is coming from a spread, college-style offense. But flip on the tape and you see an absolutely electric athlete. Coleman has the long speed to beat defenses over the top, the quickness and agility to make plays in the open field, and the hops to win jump balls. He has the highest ceiling of any WR — and maybe any player — in this draft class.
Doctson goes 6’2, 202 pounds and plays even bigger thanks to a 41-inch vertical and elite ball skills. He’s a good bet to make an instant impact as a possession-type WR with sneaky big-play ability. Note that he turned 23 in December, making him 1 of the older prospects in the class.
4. Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Treadwell, who turns 21 in June, is even younger than Elliott. That makes his 82-1,153-11 junior season against SEC competition even more impressive. While his subpar athleticism might cap his fantasy upside, Treadwell has all the makings of a big, strong possession WR with dangerous run-after-catch ability. He falls somewhere on the Alshon Jeffery-Anquan Boldin spectrum.
5. Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech
Dixon’s receiving ability — both out of the backfield and in the slot — make him an intriguing prospect in today’s pass-happy NFL. He caught 63 passes and averaged 12.9 yards per reception over his final 2 college seasons. He’s also big enough (5’10, 215 pounds) and athletic enough (64th percentile SPARQ) to serve as his NFL team’s lead runner.
A crappy Rutgers offense has Carroo flying under the radar. He accounted for 39.4% of the team’s total receiving yards and 46% of the receiving TDs over the past 2 seasons. The well-built 6’0, 211-pounder has plenty of speed and some of the best hands in the draft class. Carroo dropped just 2 of 96 catchable targets over the past 2 seasons.
7. Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
Fuller has inconsistent hands and is a bit of a 1-trick pony. But that trick is damn good. He plays at least as fast as his 4.32-second 40 time would suggest and knows how to take full advantage of that elite speed. He averaged 17.0 yards per catch and scored 29 times over his final 2 college seasons. If Fuller lands with a team that understands how to accentuate his strengths, he’ll present big fantasy upside.
Henry is a unicorn with no good comparable. That’s made him a divisive prospect at DS headquarters. On the plus side, he’s an elite size/athleticism prospect with huge college rushing production against SEC competition. On the downside, he doesn’t flash much make-you-miss ability on tape and caught just 17 passes over 3 seasons at ‘Bama. Landing spot will be more important for Henry than most. He needs a solid offensive line to give him a runway to get his big body moving downhill.
9. C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame
Prosise is dripping with upside. He’s big (6’0, 220 pounds), athletic (64th percentile SPARQ) and an excellent pass-catcher who actually started his college career as a WR. With just 1 year of RB under his belt, Prosise is a bit of a project. But he could pay off big for patient dynasty owners.
10. Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
Thomas’ college numbers don’t jump off the page, which is more concerning when you consider that he spent 5 years in school and is already 23. But the tape shows a polished WR with reliable hands. He also tested well, landing in the 83rd percentile among WRs in SPARQ score. Thomas might already be close to his ceiling as a prospect but also carries a relatively high floor.
11. Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
The 5’10, 194-pounder will probably make his living as a slot receiver. But he also has the physicality and ball skills to win on the outside. Quicker than fast and 1 of the better route runners in the class, Shepard looks like a high-floor, moderate-ceiling dynasty pick. Think Jarvis Landry.
Booker is basically an older version of Kenneth Dixon. He turns 24 in May but has the size (5’11, 219 pounds) and all-around skill set to emerge as a 3-down back for his NFL team. Booker is a prime target for dynasty teams in “win-now” mode.
13. Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
The production truthers love Boyd. He’s Pitt’s all-time leader in career receptions (254) and receiving yards (3,361), despite spending just 3 years there. The tape shows a crafty route runner with good hands. But he’s a subpar athlete (34th percentile SPARQ) who doesn’t “wow” on tape. Boyd feels like a scheme-dependent fantasy prospect who could top out as a WR3.
14. Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas
If not for a foot injury that cost him the entire 2015 season, Williams might be in the mix for the #2 spot in this RB class. He’s a stocky 5’11, 220-pounder with quick feet and good burst. He averaged more yards per carry than teammate Alex Collins in both 2013 and 2014 and definitely carries more upside.
15. Mike Thomas, WR, Southern Miss
Thomas has just 1 season of big college production and wasn’t even invited to the Combine, so the floor here is a bit uncomfortable. But he has some of the most impressive tape in the draft class, displaying NFL-worthy speed, acceleration and ball skills. Thomas is worth gambling on in the 2nd round of your dynasty rookie draft.
16. Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa
In a class lacking #1 WR potential, Garrett has it. He checks in at 6’3, 220 pounds and tested as an above-average athlete. No one in the nation had more receiving yards in 2015. Garrett played in a spread offense against questionable competition, so he’s a bit of a project. But patient owners won’t find anyone with more upside this far down the rankings.
Perkins probably doesn’t have the size or power to serve as an every-down back in the NFL. But he has some of the best shake-and-wiggle in the class, leading the nation in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating last year. With 80 catches over 3 college seasons, he’s ready to make an immediate impact in the passing game.
18. Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
The converted QB flashed at times at WR last season, shined at the Senior Bowl and maintained that momentum with a Combine performance that landed him in the 69th percentile among WRs in SPARQ score. Miller is a major projection and will need at least a year of seasoning before having a shot to make a fantasy impact. But he has Randall Cobb-esque upside.
19. Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado State
Higgins tested in the 4th percentile among WRs in athleticism. Guys like that don’t tend to make it in the NFL. But Higgins has an impressive 3-year college resume, including a NCAA-high 1,750 yards and 17 TDs in 2014. He has a shot if he lands in the right spot.
20. Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana
This 230-pound bruiser led the RB class with 3.7 yards after contact per attempt, per Pro Football Focus. While he won’t break long runs at the next level, Howard does display sneaky quickness and nifty feet. He at least has the potential to emerge as a lead, early-down back.
21. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
Just 23 starts in the Missouri Valley Conference makes Wentz a riskier bet than the guy right beneath him in these rankings. But if you’re using a dynasty rookie pick on a QB, you’re looking for upside. Wentz’s size, arm strength and athleticism give him plenty of that.
22. Jared Goff, QB, California
With 3 seasons of steady college production, Goff is the safest bet in the class to emerge as a solid NFL starter. He’s been compared to Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, which is a fair indication of his fantasy outlook.
23. Charone Peake, WR, Clemson
Peake is old (24 in October) with only 1 season of even decent college production. But he’s 6’2, 209 pounds with athleticism in the 64th percentile among WRs. It’s also worth noting that Clemson has been a WR factory lately, producing DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant.
24. Pharoh Cooper, WR, South Carolina
Cooper’s production profile is 1 of the best in the class, especially when factoring in the crappy offense he played in. He totaled 135 catches for 2,109 yards and 17 TDs over the last 2 years, plus another 311 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. That versatility (he also returned kicks) will appeal to NFL teams. But Cooper is just 5’11, 203 pounds with bottom-barrel measurables and uninspiring tape.
25. Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia
Georgia’s run-heavy offense suppressed Mitchell’s numbers. But he actually accounted for a bigger percentage of his team’s receiving production than guys like Laquon Treadwell and Sterling Shepard. At 6’0, 198 pounds with 4.45 speed, Mitchell closely resembles Jeremy Maclin and Nelson Agholor.
26. Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
As NFL Network’s Mike Mayock put it, "Henry's the best of a crappy tight end class." He had a solid 3-year college career, averaging 14.3 yards per catch but scoring just 9 times. The tape shows a physical pass-catcher with good hands and some seam-stretching ability. Henry should develop into some team’s starting TE, but he doesn’t look like a fantasy difference-maker.
27. DeAndre Washington, RB, Texas Tech
Washington falls in the change-of-pace-back cohort but looks like the best runner of that group. He carried 233 times for 1,492 yards and 14 scores in his final college season. And at 5’8, 204 pounds, he might be able to handle 8-12 totes per game at the next level. Washington is more likely to contribute in the passing game, though. He caught 105 balls over the last 3 years.
28. Daniel Lasco, RB, California
Injuries wrecked Lasco’s college career. But he was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school and totaled 1,471 yards and 14 TDs in his lone healthy season. Lasco then blew up the Combine, posting a SPARQ score in the 98th percentile among RBs. That makes him worth a shot in the 3rd round of dynasty rookie drafts.
29. Tyler Ervin, RB, San Jose State
Another change-of-pace type, Ervin checked into the Combine at 5’10 and 192 pounds. He posted a 4.41-second 40 time and also crushed the jumping drills, giving him a SPARQ score in the 81st percentile. Ervin caught 45 balls last year and has been compared to Darren Sproles and Dion Lewis.
Lynch just edged out Carson Wentz in SPARQ and ran for 560 yards and 15 scores over his final 2 college seasons. He’s a bigger project than Wentz or Jared Goff, but his upside doesn’t lag far behind those 2.
31. Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia
A highly-regarded recruit out of high school, Marshall averaged more yards per carry than Todd Gurley when both guys were freshmen in 2012. Injuries spoiled the rest of Marshall’s college career, but he reminded us of his ability by blazing a 4.31-second 40-yard dash at 219 pounds. The physical ability alone makes him worth gambling on in the 3rd round of rookie drafts.
32. Kenyan Drake, RB, Alabama
Stuck behind guys like Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, Drake never reached 100 carries in 4 college seasons. That makes him mostly a mystery. He did catch 29 balls last year and ran a 4.45 40 at the Combine, so there’s some intrigue here.
33. Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas
Collins joined Herschel Walker and Darren McFadden as the only RBs in SEC history to record three 1,000-yard seasons. He ran behind a dominant offensive line, though, and doesn’t jump off the tape. Collins also landed in the 13th percentile in SPARQ. He’ll probably need a prime landing spot to emerge as much of a fantasy asset.
34. Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford
Hooper is a better athlete than Hunter Henry, posting a SPARQ score in the 59th percentile among TEs. And his numbers look better when you consider that Stanford was 1 of the run-heaviest offenses in the nation. Hooper needs to clean up his drop issues but could develop into a fantasy starter.
35. Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
Jones could have been a 1st-round pick had he declared after a brilliant finish to the 2014 season. He took a step back this past year and eventually lost the starting job to J.T. Barrett. But Jones’ combination of size (6’5, 253 pounds), athleticism and arm strength makes him an intriguing project for both NFL and dynasty teams.
36. Aaron Burbridge, WR, Michigan State
Burbridge won’t wow with his size (6’0, 206 pounds) or athleticism (9th percentile SPARQ). But he was the go-to receiver in Michigan State’s pro-style offense last year, posting an 85-1,258-7 line. He has a shot to develop into a #2 or #3 WR at the next level.
37. Tajae Sharpe, WR, UMass
38. Ricardo Louis, WR, Auburn
39. De’Runnya Wilson, WR, Mississippi State
40. Kenny Lawler, WR, California
41. Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCU
42. Josh Ferguson, RB, Illinois
43. Wendell Smallwood, RB, West Virginia
44. Thomas Duarte, TE, UCLA
45. Demarcus Robinson, WR, Florida
46. Marquez North, WR, Tennessee
47. Daniel Braverman, WR, Western Michigan
48. Jerell Adams, TE, South Carolina
49. Dwayne Washington, RB, Washington
50. Devon Cajuste, WR, Stanford
51. Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA
52. Hunter Sharp, WR, Utah State
53. Aaron Green, RB, TCU
54. Jakeem Grant, WR, Texas Tech
55. Tyler Higbee, TE, Western Kentucky
56. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
57. Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
58. Peyton Barber, RB, Auburn
59. Roger Lewis, WR, Bowling Green
60. Duke Williams, WR, Auburn
QBs
1. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
2. Jared Goff, California
3. Paxton Lynch, Memphis
4. Cardale Jones, Ohio State
5. Connor Cook, Michigan State
6. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
7. Vernon Adams, Oregon
8. Christian Hackenburg, Penn St.
9. Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
10. Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech
RBs
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
2. Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech
3. Derrick Henry, Alabama
4. C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame
5. Devontae Booker, Utah
6. Jonathan Williams, Arkansas
7. Paul Perkins, UCLA
8. Jordan Howard, Indiana
9. DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech
10. Daniel Lasco, California
11. Tyler Ervin, San Jose State
12. Keith Marshall, Georgia
13. Kenyan Drake, Alabama
14. Alex Collins, Arkansas
15. Josh Ferguson, Illinois
16. Wendell Smallwood, West Virginia
17. Dwayne Washington, Washington
18. Aaron Green, TCU
19. Peyton Barber, Auburn
20. Kelvin Taylor, Florida
21. Storm Barrs-Woods, Oregon State
WRs
1. Corey Coleman, Baylor
2. Josh Doctson, TCU
3. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
4. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers
5. Will Fuller, Notre Dame
6. Michael Thomas, Ohio State
7. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma
8. Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh
9. Mike Thomas, Southern Mississippi
10. Keyarris Garrett, Tulsa
11. Braxton Miller, Ohio State
12. Rashard Higgins, Colorado State
13. Charone Peake, Clemson
14. Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina
15. Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia
16. Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State
17. Tajae Sharpe, UMass
18. Ricardo Louis, Auburn
19. De’Runnya Wilson, Mississippi State
20. Kenny Lawler, California
21. Kolby Listenbee, TCU
22. Demarcus Robinson, Florida
23. Marquez North, Tennessee
24. Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan
25. Devon Cajuste, Stanford
26. Jordan Payton, UCLA
27. Hunter Sharp, Utah State
28. Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech
29. Roger Lewis, Bowling Green
30. Chris Moore, Cincinnati
31. Cody Core, Mississippi
32. Devin Lucien, Arizona State
33. Duke Williams, Auburn
34. Jalin Marshall, Ohio State
35. D.J. Foster, Arizona State
36. Jay Lee, Baylor
37. Bryce Treggs, California
38. Byron Marshall, Oregon
39. Moritz Boehringer, Germany
40. Cayleb Jones, Arizona
TEs
1. Hunter Henry, Arkansas
2. Austin Hooper, Stanford
3. Thomas Duarte, UCLA
4. Jerell Adams, South Carolina
5. Tyler Higbee, Western Kentucky
6. Ben Braunecker, Harvard
7. Stephen Anderson, California
8. Beau Sandland, Montana State
