Geno Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Smith is coming off a QB24 finish in fantasy points per game last season. He played well, though, earning a career-high and ranking 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Smith ranked seventh in fantasy points back in 2022 and gets his top three WRs back this year in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this year. But Smith will be operating a new offense under first-time NFL OC Ryan Grubb.

There’s a relatively wide range of outcomes here, but Smith’s ADP is sitting in low-end QB2 territory. His fantasy ceiling extends well above that price tag.

What We Learned Last Year

• Smith finished 24th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year.
• That was way down from his QB7 finish in 2022.
• What changed? Here’s where Smith went in key metrics from 2022 to 2023:
  • 33.6 pass attempts per game to 33.3
  • 69.8% completion rate to 64.7%
  • 7.5 yards per pass attempt to 7.3
  • 251.9 pass yards per game to 241.6
  • 1.8 pass TDs per game to 1.3
  • 5.2% pass TD rate to 4.0%
• There was no noticeable dropoff in Smith’s play. In fact, he earned a career-high 82.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade. That ranked 12th among 33 qualifying QBs.
• Smith ranked 19th among those 33 qualifiers in completion rate and 11th in yards per attempt.
• He ranked seventh in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Completion Rate Over Expected.
• Smith missed Weeks 14 and 15 with a groin injury.
• He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just five of his 15 outings. That included a pair of top-5 finishes. But Smith ranked QB20 or worse six times.
• On top of the dip in passing production, Smith also went from 21.5 rushing yards per game in 2022 to just 10.3 last year.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Seahawks traded for QB Sam Howell in mid-March. He’s coming off an up-and-down season in Washington and shouldn’t be a threat for the starting job as long as Smith plays as well as he has the past two seasons.
• Smith will be playing for a brand new coaching staff this year led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
• This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
  • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
  • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
  • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
• Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
  • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
• Grubb loved throwing deep at Washington. QB Michael Penix ranked fourth in passes of 20+ yards in 2022 and then led the country in 2023.
• That’ll be a change for Smith, who’s ranked near the middle of the league in both total pass attempts of 20+ yards and percentage of passes to travel 20+ yards the last two years.
  • He’s been very good throwing deep, though. Smith led 35 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grade in 2022 and ranked ninth among 38 qualifiers last year.
• The Seahawks return their top six targets from last year.
  • WR Tyler Lockett
  • WR D.K. Metcalf
  • WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • TE Noah Fant
  • RB Ken Walker
  • RB Zach Charbonnet
• 31-year-old Lockett is in decline but still a solid player. Smith-Njigba should be ascending in year 2. This remains a strong pass-catching corps.
• The 2023 Seahawks ranked:
  • 28th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade
  • 25th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate
• Seattle might have as many as four new starters on the offensive line this season: OT George Fant, Gs Laken Tomlinson and McClendon Curtis, and rookie C Olu Oluwatimi. 2022 first-round LT Charles Cross returns for his third season.