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Get Ready for Your Fantasy Football Playoffs

Time to Check Those Late Schedules

C.J. Stroud has stunk for fantasy purposes over his past four games. But could he still help you win your league?

And why might the Buccaneers’ backfield split matter even more than you think?

We’ll get into both situations in a few minutes. But the overarching point here is that it’s time to start mapping your road through the fantasy football playoffs.

Let’s get to it.

When Do Fantasy Football Playoffs Start?

First of all, most fantasy football seasons end a week earlier than the NFL season does.

Why? Because Week 18 can be particularly rife with NFL teams sitting starters to either prepare for playoff openers or get a look at less-used players ahead of offseason decisions.

Whether your league follows that plan or plays right on through Week 18, your fantasy football playoffs typically run for the final 2-3 weeks of your fantasy season.

Whether your league goes two weeks or three will generally depend on how many teams make the playoffs. There’s no “right” way to work that, but allowing too large a portion of your league to make the playoffs can devalue the regular season and add luck to who wins the championship.

It’s dispiriting to march through a dominant regular season only to face a .500 squad on its biggest spike week of the year.

How Do Fantasy Football Playoffs Work?

Of course, that’s part of the game for most fantasy football leagues.

The predominant fantasy football format features head-to-head matchups all season, including the playoff weeks. That’s bound to produce some upsets (and heartache). And frankly, that’s all a big part of why the game’s so popular.

Limiting your playoff berths to the league’s true top teams can help make the result more “fair.” Looking beyond a team’s record and factoring in total points can also remove some of the luck.

Head-to-Head Playoffs

Fantasy football playoffs most commonly feature the playoff teams squaring off against each other in the familiar playoff structure. Win and you move on to the next week. Lose and you’re out. Last team standing wins.

Some leagues make the championship a two-week matchup, which can lower the chances of a particular spike or lull in scoring determining the victor. This format combines each team’s scores for the final two weeks to crown the champ.

In either case, you will also find some leagues that include a loser’s bracket. That can either include non-playoff teams or those who lost in the playoffs.

The purpose: Keep everyone motivated to keep setting lineups and trying to win even after their title shot disappears. Such play can be for league prize shares, draft position the following year, or other incentives.

Total Points Playoffs

Eschewing head-to-head matchups for a total-points format in the fantasy football playoffs is more common in tournament play. But it can be a good setup for any fantasy football league as well.

This is a particularly good method for decreasing the luck factor in your playoffs. One common setup works like this:

1. Each playoff team starts with its weekly scoring average from the season.
2. Add each team’s point total for each week of your league playoffs.
3. Highest total score at the end wins.

This format rewards the best regular-season teams with a head start on points. And it also limits the impact of a one-week scoring peak or lull in the playoffs.

Fantasy Football Playoffs Strategy and Matchups

Of course, we’re in November now. So you’re not looking for tips on how to format your league. That’s been set for months (or years?).

You want to win. And that’s the main reason we’re here.

I’ll dig into season-ending schedules and some targets (and avoids) by position. But let’s hit some overall tips first:

• Don’t get too cute with risky starters. Matchups matter, of course. And we’ll continue using all the same data to produce our weekly projections every week of the season. But it’s especially easy to overthink your lineup decisions and talk yourself into an upside play in the fantasy football playoffs. In many cases, it’ll be better to stick with what has worked.

• Pay attention to injuries and trends. This should be obvious, but it’s especially important at the end of the season. If you miss something in Week 6 and leave the wrong guy in your lineup (or out of it), you’ve got time to make up for that. Not so come Week 16. Of course, we’ll keep tracking all the fantasy football news you need to know.

• Make sure it’s your lineup. I field plenty of questions along the lines of, “Why do you guys have this WR a few spots behind this other guy? I’m leaning toward the lower guy because ____.” If there’s a large gap between the projections for the two players, then there’s a reason. And I’m happy to explain. But if those guys sit close together, then I’ll often tell you to go with your gut. We certainly won’t be right about every pick. And you’re gonna kick yourself a lot harder tomorrow if you lose by sitting your guy.

Now let’s get specific by position, checking into the best – and worst – schedules for weeks 15-17 …

Fantasy Football Playoffs QB Strategy

Let’s start with this reminder: Don’t overplay the matchups even in these final weeks.

I know from experience that you do not want to lose your title matchup by sitting the QB who’s been delivering you weekly points for the guy you talk yourself into because he’s “in a good spot.”

That said, matchups do factor in plenty at this position. And these QBs look like candidates to get late-season boosts:

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield has been terrific all season and should get WR Mike Evans back sometime before the fantasy playoffs.

If Evans returns after the Week 11 bye – as hoped – Mayfield could also help you get into the playoffs. He gets the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders ahead of Week 15.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Nix sits 16th among QBs in fantasy points per game as of this writing, with 18.3 fantasy points or fewer in three of his past four.

There’s potential for him to help you late this season. But I’m not ready at the moment to declare him a playoff target.

If Nix is on your waiver wire, you can consider stashing him to see what develops.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

I’ve been skeptical of Murray. But he might have proved in Week 10 that I shouldn’t be.

Murray delivered a season high in fantasy points with three total TDs against the Jets. that marked his third game of 20+ points (by ESPN scoring) among the past four. The other came against Chicago: a tough defense and a one-sided game that found Arizona going run-heavy.

Murray also completed 91.7% of his passes against the Jets. That’s the fourth time this season he has reached 72% and boosted Murray’s season-long completion rate to a tie for his career best (69.2%).

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert averaged just 11.66 fantasy points across his first six appearances this year. His past three have produced:

• 24.1
• 19.5
• 19.8

All three have ranked among the top 13 QBs for the week.

I’ll probably prefer to avoid playing Herbert against the Broncos in Week 16 if I can help it. But his other two playoff weeks look good – if the Week 17 weather in New England cooperates.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Houston’s QB schedule didn’t make it into the graphic above because a Week 15 matchup with the Dolphins is artificially dragging down the numbers.

Why artificially? The Miami matchup has been negative for opposing QBs this year by the numbers. But the biggest culprits have been:

• A mostly uncompetitive Dolphins team when Tua Tagovailoa was out.
• A bad run defense, allowing the second-most RB rushing TDs per game.

The Dolphins aren’t actually a bad matchup for your pass offense, though. They rank just 27th in pass DVOA and allowed top-11 finishes to Josh Allen and Kyler Murray the past two weeks.

QBs to Avoid?

Here are the five worst QB playoff schedules:

Takeaways

• Be wary of the schedule finish for Jared Goff. He has been volatile anyway, with success depending heavily on extremely high efficiency – especially completion and TD rates.
• Don’t plan to play Geno Smith in Week 17. He could pair with Herbert and be usable for that neutral Week 16 home date with Minnesota.
• Sam Darnold threw just 5 INTs across his first six games this season. He has matched that total over just the past two weeks. We’re still learning whether he should be trusted in any fantasy playoff weeks.

Fantasy Football Playoffs RB Strategy

Let’s check out the top 5 RB schedules for weeks 15-17 …

James Conner and Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals

We made Conner a “sell” back in the Week 5 Trade Targets. But he looks more like a “hold” at this point.

For one thing, the further you get into the season, the less you need to worry about future injury risk.

For another, his role has improved since then. Conner has gained the receiving usage he lacked at that point, including a season-high 20.8% target share in Sunday’s win.

And finally, stashing rookie Trey Benson can give you an upside handcuff – just in case. Benson has seen his work increase recently and remains available in 82% of Yahoo leagues as of this writing.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

I’d love to tell you that Hall looks like a nice trade target right now. But he’s been pretty frustrating.

A workload that turned around after the coaching change has now delivered 17 touches or fewer in three straight games. Hall hasn’t exceeded 4 targets in a game since Week 7, after averaging 6.1 per contest through that game.

It’s entirely possible that his usage re-rebounds and that Hall becomes a playoff difference maker. If you can get him from a league mate at an “I’m frustrated” price, probably worth a shot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs

The Bucs not only finish with two strong RB matchups. They actually get the best RB schedule from Week 12 on (after their bye), according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

That, of course, doesn’t make Bucky Irving or Rachaad White a safe bet the rest of the way because of the work split. But it makes both of them potential options.

Irving has garnered 12+ touches in four of his past five games. White has done so in four of his past six. Both got 16 touches in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers.

Detroit Lions RBs

The Lions would rather run the ball. They carry the ninth-lowest pass rate vs. expectation for the season. Combine that with three defenses who all limit passing numbers more than rushing production, and you could get a busy fantasy-playoffs stretch for Lions RBs.

I’m not sure how much we can do with that, though. Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t likely available at a good price, with three games of 108+ total yards and 4 total TDs over the past four games. Of course, a player being highly priced doesn’t mean you can’t buy him. It’s just more difficult.

I wouldn’t target David Montgomery in PPR formats. He remains highly TD-dependent and more susceptible to negative game script limiting his role.

Actually, even with Detroit winning seven straight games now, Montgomery has totaled 13 touches or fewer in six of them.

Raiders RBs

No.

RBs to Avoid (Besides the Raiders)?

Here are the five worst RB playoff schedules by our numbers:

Takeaways

• That’s a rough finish for Najee Harris, especially with Jaylen Warren passing him in receiving usage. I’d try to work around having to depend on him over that stretch.
• D’Andre Swift gets the second-worst remaining RB schedule from Week 11 on as well. And he’s not getting any help from his crumbling offense.
• I’m less concerned about Joe Mixon, Dolphins RBs, and the Chiefs’ backfield. Those K.C. and Baltimore matchups to close the fantasy season will be tough for Mixon. But he’s the workhorse for an offense that should be running stronger with a healthy Nico Collins by that point. Similarly, I’m probably not sitting De’Von Achane or whomever’s leading Chiefs RBs by that point because of a negative matchup.

Fantasy Football Playoffs WR Strategy

Check out this ugly set of teams getting the most positive WR matchups for the fantasy football playoffs …

Chicago Bears WRs

We’ll see whether we can take advantage of those matchups with any Bears wideouts come Week 15 on. But I’m sure not chasing after anything in that passing game right now.

If you want to try to get Rome Odunze or D.J. Moore thrown into a larger deal, feel free to try.

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

I mentioned the nice remaining schedule as part of the case for buying Nabers ahead of Week 9. Nothing has changed since then.

Daniel Jones has played very Daniel Jones-y, helping to limit Nabers’ production. But his target shares remain near the top of the league, supporting at least decent PPR production.

I wouldn’t go into “whatever it takes” mode to acquire Nabers. But he could still be cheaper than he should be.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans

We sold Ridley in that same Week 9 Trade Targets article. That might’ve been a mistake.

Ridley has since followed his big 10-143 Week 8 receiving line with games of 5-73 and 5-84-2. And he has drawn a target on 34% of his team’s pass attempts in those three games since DeAndre Hopkins left.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers has delivered 5+ receptions in five consecutive appearances, despite that range straddling a two-game absence for an ankle sprain.

Meyers ranks 12th in the league in target share since Davante Adams got traded ahead of Week 7. And Meyers missed that first game.

He gets another positive matchup with Tampa Bay in Week 14. And even the seemingly negative matchup with Miami in Week 11 actually finds a defense that ranks just 27th in pass DVOA.

Green Bay Packers WRs

The Green Bay group gets a tough draw at the Bears in Week 11. But that might be the last “avoid” matchup on the schedule. Here’s Week 12 on:

As I’ve mentioned a couple other times, that seemingly negative matchup with Miami doesn’t actually feature a good pass defense.

The 49ers in Week 12 are good – fifth in total DVOA, second against the pass – but that game’s likely to feature a high over/under and a 49ers offense capable of pushing shootout conditions.

The rest of the matchups don’t need explanations.

We haven’t been able to trust much beyond Jayden Reed in Green Bay’s passing game. But he’s at least a hold for the late-season schedule now. Romeo Doubs can make sense for deeper leagues. And you could consider stashing Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks in case anything changes to make either more usable.

Panthers WRs

Xavier Legette has flashed helpful numbers at times. Jalen Coker has impressed lately. And Adam Thielen should be ready to play soon.

I wouldn’t plan on any of them playing key roles in my playoff run, though.

We’ll see about who might fit some WR4 spots when those weeks arrive.

WRs to Avoid?

Check out the six worst remaining WR schedules by our numbers …

Takeaways

• There’s that same negative span for Lions WRs that we covered for Jared Goff earlier. I’d lean away from planning to use Jameson Williams in the fantasy football playoffs. I wouldn’t plan to bench Amon-Ra St. Brown if you have him. But he might actually be a trade candidate thanks to his low-volume pass offense and positive TD luck recently. Just don’t undersell.
• Josh Downs is probably the only Colts WR factoring into anyone’s fantasy plans right now. I wouldn’t adjust him significantly based on this negative outlook. Even on a limited Indy passing day in the first meeting with Tennessee, Downs tallied a 7-66-1 receiving line with Joe Flacco.
• Jaguars WRs are in enough trouble with the uncertainty surrounding QB Trevor Lawrence’s outlook.
• Cleveland’s Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy should be OK as long as Jameis Winston stays behind center. The possibility of that changing any week, though, helped make Tillman a potential “sell” in our Week 10 Trade Targets. He’s not a must-sell, though. Only if you can get a good return.
• The outlooks aren’t changing for Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tee Higgins because of a couple bad matchups. Jordan Addison probably should factor heavily into your playoff plans, though, if you can help it.

Fantasy Football Playoffs TE Strategy

In most cases, if you already have a solid TE, then you should just roll with him. But these top five TE schedules might give us a few tips …

TE Help?

• T.J. Hockenson drew a 24% target share Sunday in his second game back from the PUP list. Going after him in a PPR league could give you a strong contributor over not just those final three weeks, but also positive matchups with Atlanta in Week 14 and Chicago in Week 12.
• If Seahawks TE Noah Fant’s healthy coming off the Week 10 bye, then we’ll get a few weeks to see if he can carve out a usable role before the fantasy playoffs. He’s no more than a bench stash at the moment, though.
• Giants rookie TE Theo Johnson has seen 6 targets in two straight games, at a solid 19% target share. If he stays that involved the rest of the way, he could become a fantasy-playoffs option for teams that have had to piece together TE.

Fantasy Football Playoffs DST Strategy

Unless you play with especially deep benches, you should not already be stashing defenses for your playoffs. But it doesn’t hurt to be aware of some streaming-level options as the end of the season draws closer. In alphabetical order (because it’s still too early to rank them) …

Arizona Cardinals Defense

Arizona’s D has improved lately, especially against the pass. The Cardinals have held three of their past four opponents to 15 points or less. Don’t be surprised if they look like a top-8 option for a Week 15 home date with the Patriots and a Week 16 visit to Carolina.

Atlanta Falcons Defense

The Falcons still stink on defense. That’s the takeaway when you get stymied by Marquez Valdes-Scantling. But the could prove usable at the Raiders in Week 15 and/or back home against the Giants in Week 16.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense

The Bengals have been a boom-bust play, with double-digit fantasy scores against the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs (wut?) back in Week 2. Tennessee and Cleveland look like the only two good spots remaining. We’ll see about Denver in Week 17.

Indianapolis Colts Defense

The Colts will come off a Week 14 bye to face three potentially usable spots. We’ll see where they and the Broncos are at that point, but it might be good to leave that Week 15 matchup alone. Denver presents upside as a DST matchup but has been mostly neutral.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense

The Jags have actually posted three top-10 fantasy finishes among their past four games, after finishing no higher than No. 16 through the first six weeks.

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.