Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Basically a Lost Season

We can’t glean much from the way Aiyuk’s 2024 went, other than that the 49ers believe in the player.

First came the training camp “hold in” that kept Aiyuk off the field until he finally got a large contract extension from the team near the end of August. That slow start led to a limited Week 1 role. And then Aiyuk went down for the year in Week 7.

In the five games between, he averaged 4.2 catches and 64.6 yards with nary a TD.

Previous Four Seasons Pretty Good, Though

Aiyuk, of course, gave us four years of production before that summer standoff. Here’s how he ranked in fantasy points per game over that span:

• PPR:
  • 16th in 2023
  • 25th in 2022
  • 50th in 2021
  • 19th in 2020

• Half-PPR:
  • 14th in 2023
  • 22nd in 2022
  • 46th in 2021
  • 17th in 2020

• Non-PPR:
  • 13th in 2023
  • 23rd in 2022
  • 47th in 2021
  • 15th in 2020

Now let’s look at how he ranked among WRs in targets per game …

• 2023: 38th
• 2022: 36th
• 2021: 65th
• 2020: 17th

Two key takeaways from that:

1. Aiyuk’s not in a great system to draw consistently good target volume.
2. He’s well set up to consistently outperform that target volume.

2025 Expectations

First He Has to Prove Healthy

Everything else about Aiyuk’s 2025 outlook stands in line behind his health.

Aiyuk tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in October. There have been positive reports on his progress through the recovery timeline. But there also appears to be a consensus that he’s not likely to be ready for Week 1.

That will be a situation to track throughout the summer. We’ll see exactly how much time the 49ers expect him to miss and watch for signals on just how close he’ll be to regular form.

Aiyuk Will Return to Altered Situation

Last year opened with Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk as the top two WRs and likely team target leaders. The year ended with breakout numbers for Jauan Jennings, George Kittle’s largest reception total since 2019, and minimal contributions from Christian McCaffrey

If Aiyuk’s not ready for Week 1, then the top four in targets figure to be Jennings, Kittle, McCaffrey, and second-year WR Ricky Pearsall … in some order.

To this point, Aiyuk has seen different usage than Jennings and Pearsall. He’s more of an “X”-type receiver, spending 75+% of his time on the outside. The other two have typically split their time between outside slot positions more.

That sets Aiyuk up to fit more easily into the lineup when he’s ready, with Jennings and Pearsall potentially fighting each other for playing time.