Christian Kirk Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Kirk suffered a season-ending collarbone fracture late in Week 8 last year.

He totaled 27 catches for 379 yards and one TD in his eight outings, ranking 50th among WRs in total PPR points over that span.

Kirk finished as a top-24 PPR WR in just two of his eight games. He ranked outside the top 50 eight times.

Usage & Role

Kirk led the Jaguars with a 78% route rate across the first eight weeks of last season. His 47 targets ranked second behind Brian Thomas Jr. and were an 18.7% share. That ranked 44th among WRs league-wide.

Kirk sat 43rd among WRs in expected PPR points per game through Week 8.

Efficiency Metrics

Kirk registered a career-high 13.7-yard average target depth last year. That helped him to a career-best 14.0 yards per catch — but his 57.4% catch rate was a career low.

Kirk’s 8.1 yards per target was a tad below his career average and ranked 54th among 106 qualifying WRs. Kirk finished 45th in yards per route (1.72) and 64th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

The Jaguars’ offense was not very good last year, ranking 25th in total yards and 26th in points. They finished 24th in passing yards per game (204.5) and 28th in passing TDs per game (1.12).

The passing production was a bit better with a healthy QB Trevor Lawrence during Kirk’s eight games. Jacksonville averaged 213.8 yards and 1.38 TDs over that stretch — although those marks would have ranked just 19th and 13th over the course of the season.

Historical Production & Trends

Kirk’s 47.4 receiving yards per game last year were his fewest since 2020. He topped 57 in each of the previous three seasons, including 65+ in both 2022 and 2023.

Still, Kirk has never ranked higher than 20th among WRs in PPR points per game and has only once finished better than 32nd. Here are his finishes by season:

• 2018: 54th
• 2019: 34th
• 2020: 58th
• 2021: 38th
• 2022: 20th
• 2023: 32nd
• 2024: 68th

Injury History

Kirk has missed time with injury in five of seven NFL seasons.

• 2018: broken foot
• 2019: sprained ankle
• 2020: groin injury
• 2023: groin injury
• 2024: fractured collarbone

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Kirk was traded to the Texans in March. The Jaguars reportedly planned to release him, but Houston stepped in and sent a 2026 seventh-round pick to Jacksonville to secure Kirk. He’ll count just $4.8 million against the 2025 salary cap and become a free agent in 2026.

None of that guarantees Kirk a starting job in a remade Texans WR corps. Nico Collins returns as the alpha. But Stefon Diggs left for New England in free agency, and Tank Dell will likely miss the entire season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury.

Kirk is joined by rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. The 6’4, 214-pound Higgins — selected 34th overall — is a strong candidate to start on the outside across from Collins. That could leave Kirk to fend off Noel for primary slot duties.

Noel, who went in Round 3 of this spring’s draft, is undersized at 5’10, 194 pounds. But he’s an explosive athlete with sub-4.4 speed. Noel out-produced Higgins at Iowa State last year, going for 1,194 yards on 80 receptions.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He sank from 8.2 yards per attempt as a rookie to 7.0 last year.

We’re optimistic that he’ll be better in 2025, although he’ll need to get better offensive line play. Last year’s unit ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

The offensive line is the biggest worry for the Texans heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets. That’d be good news for Kirk if he wins the slot job.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Kirk will turn 29 in November, putting him well past prime age for WRs. Our research shows that WRs produce around 90% of their peak at age-29.

Kirk’s Pro Football Focus receiving grade has declined in each of the last two seasons. Last year’s 1.72 yards per route was his lowest mark since 2020.