Josh Allen Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Allen finished fourth among QBs in fantasy points and fantasy points per game. He recorded nine top-eight fantasy finishes, including four at QB1.

Rushing production fueled the high-end finish. Among QBs, Allen ranked second in rush TDs (12) and fifth in rush yards (531).

That proved critical, as Allen’s passing output declined. He ranked 19th in passing yards per game (219.4) and tenth in passing TDs per game (1.65).

Usage & Role

Allen’s rushing usage has dipped alongside OC Joe Brady, who took over during the 2023 season. Here’s the trend for Buffalo’s eighth-year QB:

• Carries per game
  • 2021: 7.2
  • 2022: 7.8
  • 2023: 6.5
  • 2024: 6.0
• Designed carries per game
  • 2021: 4.2
  • 2022: 4.2
  • 2023: 3.6
  • 2024: 3.5

Allen tallied 18 carries inside the 10-yard line and 10 inside the five. Only Jalen Hurts topped those numbers.

Efficiency Metrics

Allen remained one of the most efficient TD producers in the league.

In fact, the 29-year-old is the only QB with a 5+% pass TD rate in each of the last five seasons.

He showed no cause for concern elsewhere. Allen’s 7.7 yards per attempt, 74.2% adjusted completion rate, and 84.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade each fell in line with recent years.

Allen notched 0.70 fantasy points per dropback last year – third best league-wide.

Offensive Context

Brady’s offense ranked just 25th in pass rate. However, they jumped to 13th in pass rate over expectation.

It’s also worth noting that Buffalo ranked 28th in total plays (1,025) — way down from 1,115 plays in 2023.

This pass-catching corps plateaued after WR Stefon Diggs’ departure. Rookie WR Keon Coleman and second-year TE Dalton Kincaid each missed four games with injuries, while both underperformed when active.

Buffalo also received little from slot WR Curtis Samuel, who signed a three-year deal with $15 million guaranteed last March.

Buffalo’s O-line at least provided reliable protection. They slotted fourth in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric.

Injury History

Allen played all 17 games last season. In December, he admitted to playing through a broken left hand from Week 1. He also suffered a right elbow contusion in Week 16.

The veteran hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2018.

2025 Expectations

Supporting Cast

Buffalo returns leading receiver Khalil Shakir alongside Kincaid, Coleman, and Samuel.

They used a Round 5 pick on blocking TE Jackson Hawes and took a Round 7 flier on Maryland WR Kaden Prather. But the biggest addition came in free agency with the signing of WR Josh Palmer (3 years, $18 million guaranteed). Palmer held the Chargers’ No. 3 WR role last season, but he adds positional versatility and a larger frame at 6’2, 210 pounds.

The Bills also took a low-risk flier on Elijah Moore, who posted just 61-538-1 on 103 targets in Cleveland last season.

Overall, this unit still lacks a true No. 1 target. But that certainly didn’t hamper Allen in 2024.

Buffalo also returns all five starters along the O-line.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Joe Brady returns for his second full season as OC.

We’ve seen Buffalo shift more to the run under Brady’s leadership. We can reasonably expect that to continue with a ground game of Allen, James Cook, and Ray Davis. Cook ranked sixth among RBs in EPA per rush and 11th in success rate last year.

Overall, the Bills have the pass-catching depth to remain formationally versatile. This includes the TE corps, where Dawson Knox returns for his seventh season.

One more observation: The Bills haven't pushed the pace in any of the past two seasons. They ranked 24th in situation-neutral pace in 2023 and 21st in 2024.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Allen finished as the fantasy QB1 or QB2 each year from 2020 to 2023. Despite the slight dip in 2024, he retains the ceiling to lead the position in scoring this fall.

What’s the biggest difference maker? It’s Allen’s rushing output, which has included 15 and 12 TDs over the past two seasons.