Joshua Palmer Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Palmer tallied 39 catches for 584 yards and 1 TD. His per-game averages: 2.6 catches, 38.9 yards, and .06 TDs.

The contract-year WR recorded only three top-36 fantasy finishes. He finished at WR50 or worse nine times, making him an untrustworthy fantasy asset.

Usage & Role

Palmer held the No. 3 WR role behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.

The veteran played inside and out with a 32.9% slot rate and a 67.1% rate out wide (per PFF). Palmer added a career high with a 15.1-yard average depth of target.

One other area of interest: Palmer’s red zone usage. He garnered just 14% of the team’s RZ targets per Pro Football Reference – fourth among Chargers.

Efficiency Metrics

Palmer’s 68.3 PFF receiving grade was a career high, but it still ranked 58th among 84 WRs with 50+ targets.

He underwhelmed in some other metrics, too:

• 25th in drop rate
• 56th in yards per route run
• 61st in contested catch rate
• 63rd in catch rate
• 78th in yards after catch per reception

Palmer also finished 54th out of 116 WRs in ESPN’s Open Score.

Offensive Context

The Chargers ranked just 23rd in pass rate. They rose to 12th in pass rate over expected.

Two of Palmer’s three best yardage totals (63, 72) came with Johnston sidelined (Week 7 and Week 8). Palmer’s best yardage total surfaced with McConkey out of the lineup (78 yards, Week 14).

Historical Production & Trends

Palmer’s target share took a step back in 2024. Here’s a look at his shares over the last three seasons:

• 2024: 14.3%
• 2023: 16.7%
• 2022: 16.2%

Palmer’s 39-584-1 line from last fall nearly matched his output from 2023. The major difference: Palmer played four additional games in ‘23.

Injury History

Palmer missed Week 3 with an elbow/calf injury. He sat out Week 18 and the Wild Card Round with a foot injury.

Palmer missed six games in 2023 (knee) and one game in 2022 (concussion).

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Buffalo signed Palmer to a three-year deal worth $29 million ($18 million guaranteed).

It sounds like a lot given Palmer’s subpar production. But that’s the nature of free agency – and clearly, the Bills saw something they liked in the 25-year-old.

Palmer ultimately projects as the No. 3/4 target behind at least Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Shakir enjoyed a breakout 2024, developing into a sure-handed slot. Kincaid regressed as he played through an injury, but it’s possible he rebounds this fall.

We’ll see how WR Keon Coleman progresses after a quiet rookie season.

Supporting Cast

Josh Allen remains the engine behind this unit. In 2024, he ranked top 10 in TD rate, success rate, QBR, and yards per attempt.

Just don’t expect Palmer’s TDs to spike, partly due to Allen’s red zone rushing. Allen rushed 31 times in the red zone last year – third most among QBs.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

We expect a similar offensive approach from last year, both in terms of pass volume and style. In 2024, Allen ranked fourth among 38 qualifiers in deep pass rate (15.1%). Palmer’s 15.1-yard aDOT from last year showed he can fill a vertical role for this offense.

Brady also described an ‘everybody eats’ mentality last summer. Buffalo remains without a clear-cut No. 1 WR, so a fairly even distribution of targets wouldn’t surprise us.