Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pittman struggled with injuries for much of 2024.

He popped up on the injury report ahead of Week 3 with back and calf issues. The back injury worsened, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported ahead of Week 6 that Pittman would miss “multiple weeks.” He wound up playing the next four games before missing Week 10. He played the rest of the season, but the back stayed on the injury report. Pittman also dislocated a finger in Week 9 and hurt his shoulder in Week 12.

He finished the tough-luck campaign with 69 catches for 808 yards and three TDs. Pittman ranked 41st among WRs in total PPR points and 51st in points per game.

He had just one top-12 PPR finish and four total weeks inside the top-24 WRs. Pittman failed to crack the top 50 at his position in six of his 16 outings.

Usage & Role

Despite the injuries, Pittman played at least 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in all 16 of his games. He topped an 85% snap rate in 12 of 16 outings. And his 90% route rate ranked 22nd among WRs.

Pittman drew 111 total targets, which ranked 24th among WRs. His 23.2% target share (in his 16 games) was good for 35th at the position.

Pittman didn’t see much action near scoring territory, though. He ranked 50th among WRs in red-zone targets (18) and tied for 59th in end-zone targets (5).

That’s a big part of the reason Pittman finished just 40th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Pittman’s 62.2% catch rate last year was a career low. That ranked 54th among 89 WRs with 50+ targets — and looks even less impressive when you consider that Pittman averaged just 11.7 yards per catch.

Pittman’s 7.3 yards per target ranked 67th among those 89 WRs. His 1.68 yards per route ranked 47th.

Pittman finished 44th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Pittman played 10 games with QB Anthony Richardson last year and six with QB Joe Flacco. His usage and production were very different with the two passers. Here are the per-game splits:

10 games with Richardson:

• 6.5 targets
• 3.9 catches
• 42.8 yards
• 0 TDs
• 60.0% catch rate
• 11.0 yards per catch

Six games with Flacco:

• 7.7 targets
• 5.0 catches
• 63.3 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• 65.2% catch rate
• 12.7 yards per catch

Pittman ranked 46th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 63rd in actual points per game with Richardson. With Flacco, he ranked 33rd in expected points and 27th in actual.

Historical Production & Trends

Pittman’s 10.5 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since his 2020 rookie season. His finishes in PPR points per game the previous three years:

• 2021 - 30th
• 2022 - 21st
• 2023 - 18th

Pittman saw more targets per game in all three of those seasons than he did last year and averaged more yards per route in two of the three. His 2.04 yards per route in 2023 was a career-best and ranked 22nd among 80 qualifying WRs.

Injury History

On top of the back, calf, finger, and shoulder injuries he dealt with last year, Pittman:

• Missed three games in 2020 with compartment syndrome in his calf
• Sustained a concussion in 2020
• Missed one game in 2022 with a quad strain
• Sustained another concussion in 2023

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts return their top four WRs from last year in Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell.

Pittman ranked third among that trio in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year. But his $23 million cap hit makes him a safe bet to remain a full-time player in 2025.

Pittman will face increased target competition, though, from first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is a big upgrade from the Colts’ hodgepodge of TEs last year and should command targets right away.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Considering Pittman’s usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value with Jones under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis.

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel.

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Pittman turns 28 in October. While that’s past prime for WRs, our aging-curve research shows that WRs of Pittman’s caliber produce at 96% of their peak at age-28.