Quentin Johnston Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Johnston’s 55-711-8 receiving line in his second season still wasn’t terrific. He tied for 62nd in the league in catches and ranked 48th in yards.

He checked in 43rd in PPR points per game, 42nd in half-PPR, and 40th in non-PPR.

Johnston basically only helped fantasy teams when he reached the end zone. He cracked the top 30 just six times, five of which came among the seven games in which he scored at least 1 TD.

Johnston’s high point came in a 13-catch, 186-yard Week 18 contest against the Raiders. He finished second among PPR wideouts even without a TD. The two other weeks in which he found the end zone produced PPR finishes of just WR33 and WR38.

Johnston averaged 3.7 receptions per game and reached 4 catches in six of 15 outings.

Usage & Role

Johnston’s snap share increased vs. his rookie season – from 64.6% to 70.2% (for games played) – but he watched rookie WR Ladd McConkey jump ahead to lead Chargers WRs in playing time.

He climbed to 40th among WRs in target share vs. 79th in 2023, nearly doubling that number from 10.6% to 19.8%. (McConkey beat him, though.)

Johnston remained almost solely an outside WR, spending 88.1% of his pass snaps there, according to Pro Football Focus.

Efficiency Metrics

Johnston nearly doubled his yards per route in 2024, from an ugly 0.88 his rookie season to 1.63, according to PFF. But that still tied him for just 50th among 105 WRs with 40+ targets.

He also trailed McConkey in yards per catch, despite a deeper aDOT; yards per target (10.3 to 7.8); catch rate (73.2% to 60.4%); and receiving success rate (57.1% to 50.5%).

Johnston did lead the team in TD catches and ranked 11th among all WRs in TD share.

Offensive Context

Just like in his first season, Johnston spent nearly 90% of his pass snaps on the outside in 2024. However, he went from splitting that time nearly evenly between left (354 snaps) and right (308) in his rookie season to lining up to the left on 69.8% of his outside-WR snaps last year.

Although he hit the league with a body seemingly designed for such a role – 6’3, 215 pounds – Johnston didn’t play his best college ball as that type of guy. He was much better as a run-after-catch player than contested-catch artist.

Historical Production & Trends

Last year marked the first under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. It also found the Chargers suddenly without WRs Keenan Allen (traded) and Mike Williams (released).

The Chargers ranked 28th in the league in pass attempts after finishing the previous year third, under then-OC Kellen Moore.

Although last year’s Chargers passed more often as the year went on, the histories for Harbaugh and Roman plus last year’s final results point to a preference for lower passing volume.

Injury History

Johnston lost two games to an ankle sprain in the middle of last season but sports no worrisome injury history. It’s worth noting that he hurt the same right ankle in 2022 at TCU (plus at least one aggravation), but we haven’t seen a sign that’s a weak spot for him overall.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Johnston will have to compete for a role this season.

The Chargers drafted Tre Harris in Round 2, after a strong couple of seasons at Ole Miss. Harris stands similar in size to Johnston and played more like a traditional “X” receiver in college. That included a 61.5% contested-catch rate his final season, which beat Johnston’s career rate by 20.8 percentage points (40.7%).

The team also brought back Mike Williams, though only on a one-year, $3 million contract. Now 31, Williams will need to prove he can be a factor after washing out with both the Jets and Steelers in 2024.

That trio will compete for the Nos. 2 and 3 roles in an offense that ranked just 22nd in the league in rate of 3-WR sets last season.

Battle for the ‘X’?

If it’s Johnston vs. Harris for the “X” position, then Johnston could be in trouble because of his struggles in contested situations.

Harris’ aforementioned 2024 rate came on just 13 contested targets, thanks to a groin injury ending his season early. His career contested catch rate came in at just 48.4%. But that still beat Johnston’s college rate. And his rate has declined every season since his first year at TCU.

Last year – his first as that “X” – Johnston ranked:

• 41st among WRs in total targets
• T-25th in contested targets
• 26th in rate of targets that were contested
• 91st in contested catch rate (among 105 WRs with 40+ total targets)

That might have helped motivate the Chargers to draft Harris.

Supporting Cast

QB Justin Herbert helps his WRs’ efficiency. He has completed 66.5% of his passes through five years. He’s coming off a career-low INT rate and career-high yards per pass attempt. Herbert has also lost games to injury in just one of his five seasons.

Harris looks like a better upside bet than Johnston, who’s still a holdover from the previous coaching staff.

An upgraded backfield – Najee Harris via free agency; Omarion Hampton via Round 1 of the draft – also suggests plenty of rushing volume from a historically run-favoring pair of offensive coaches.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Harbaugh-Roman factor weighs heavily on all the passing-game output. Their first Chargers team wound up passing at a higher rate than expected, especially after a hobbled start for Herbert.

From Week 5 on, the Chargers ranked second in the league in neutral pass rate, trailing only the Bengals. Their 4.0% pass rate over expected ranked seventh-highest.

Yet even Herbert’s 31.8 pass attempts per game over that elevated stretch project to just 540.6 over a full 17 games. That would have ranked just 22nd in the league last season.

Harbaugh and Roman each carry histories of much heavier run leanings. And the team renovated its backfield by dumping Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, signing Harris, and spending that first-rounder on Hampton.

Those don’t seem like the moves of a team planning to rank near the top of the league in passing rate.

Even if they do pass at a higher rate that the coaching histories portend, these Chargers will need to prove they can be average or better on the passing-volume front.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Johnston’s significant production improvements in 2024 might not have propelled him to stardom. But there’s certainly room for the 24-year-old (on Sept. 6) to continue improving and become a fixture in an ascending offense.

He’ll likely need to show evidence of further improvement throughout summer to fend off Harris.