Is Dalton Kincaid The Bills' No. 1 Receiver?

What They're Saying

More from Carucci's expectations for Kincaid this season:

"His targets should increase significantly, in part because of his ability to gain separation from coverage and in part because of the design of the offense that will have him stretching the defense as well as running traditional short and intermediate tight end routes. There’s also the chemistry Kincaid has developed with Josh Allen. It was steadily improving through last season and will likely take another step because of Allen's better understanding of what Kincaid is all about and because of the work they’ve done in the offseason."

2024 Fantasy Football Impact

Carucci isn't exactly stepping out on a long limb here. The offseason departures of WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis leave behind:

• 42% of last year's targets
• 39% of the catches
• 45% of the receiving yards
• 52% of the receiving TDs

Buffalo added WRs Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel to join WR Khalil Shakir -- but none of those guys is likely to emerge as a target hog this year. (Neither is WR Mack Hollins, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling or WR Chase Claypool, of course.)

That leaves Kincaid with a shot to be one of the rare TEs to lead his team in targets. And he'd be doing it on a team that's finished top nine in passing yards and TDs in four straight seasons.

While it wasn't quite Sam-LaPorta-level-good, Kincaid is coming off an impressive rookie season. He posted a 73-673-2 receiving line and the fifth most PPR points by a rookie TE over the last 10 seasons.

A significant year two leap seems likely given his talent and the opportunity in Buffalo. Kincaid is a strong bet for at least mid-range TE1 fantasy production this season. And his upside climbs into the top three at the position.