Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw for a meager 86 yards, with no TDs or INTs, in Sunday's narrow loss at Green Bay. He completed just 10 of 21 pass attempts, with half of those completions going to WR Stefon Diggs. The QB's yardage has dipped significantly through two games without WR Nico Collins.
Stroud averaged 277 yards per game and 7.82 yards per attempt across the first five weeks. (Collins left Week 5 early.)
In two full games without Collins: 139 yards per game and 5.35 yards per attempt.
The Texans have also leaned further toward the run when Joe Mixon's been healthy this year. According to RBSDM.com, Houston has run at fifth-highest rate vs. expectation over the past two weeks -- with Mixon back and Collins out.
The previous four weeks saw Houston pass at the sixth-highest rate vs. expectation. That span included Mixon leaving Week 2 early and missing the next three games.
Week 1 -- with Mixon and Collins both healthy -- found the Texans ranking 24th in neutral pass rate.
Stroud masked the Week 6 dips in pass rate and yardage efficiency by tossing 3 TD passes against the Patriots. He still ranked just 14th among fantasy QBs for the week (4-point TD formats).
A soft matchup with the Colts in Week 8 could give him a boost similar to Patriots week. But Stroud looks more like a low-end QB1 for even that matchup. And I'd try to not start him for a Week 9 visit to the Jets. (Unless they've all given up on the season by then.)
Let's take a look at the last 3 winning rosters in the FFPC's Divisional Round Playoff Challenge ... and see what we can learn about how to win this year.
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