Texans QB C.J. Stroud wrapped up an alarming fantasy season with a bad outing in the lopsided Week 17 loss to Baltimore. Stroud threw for just 185 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT on 17-of-31 passing (5.97 yards per attempt). Barring a monumental QB collapse through the rest of Week 17, it'll mark Stroud's ninth weekly fantasy finish of 18th or lower this season. He sits outside the top 24 in fantasy points per game for the season.
It wasn't shocking to see Stroud regress some from a charmed rookie season, especially given all the Houston injury issues at WR.
Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell all lost multiple games to injury, with Diggs and Dell ending their seasons prematurely.
But Stroud went from landing among the top 12 in fantasy points per game as a rookie to sitting outside QB2 territory as a sophomore.
His completion rate has dipped slightly (63.9% to 62.7%). So has the TD rate (4.6% to 3.6%), while the INT rate more than doubled (league-best 1.0% to 2.3%, higher than league average).
Stroud declined in average target depth, passing success rate and completed air yards per attempt (7.4 to 6.2, according to Pro Football Reference).
He undeniably hits his second fantasy offseason carrying less market value than he did a year ago.
But that doesn't mean Stroud has already gone from fantasy darling to bust. It has simply added realism to his profile.
Stroud has averaged just 2.9 rushing attempts and 12.9 rushing yards per game through his first two seasons.
He's a pocket passer in an era filled with "dual-threat" QBs. That means Stroud will need to pass even more efficiently to be a difference-making fantasy QB. And any dips in that efficiency will be magnified in his fantasy performance.
Stroud still looks like a fine fantasy passer over the long term. His rookie year was at least as good as his second year was disappointing -- and arguably much more so.
So is he a "buy" vs. a potentially strong decline in market value? Maybe. It'll really depend on the situation.
If you find a Stroud manager especially down on the QB or simply looking to rebuild in general (and not viewing a 23-year-old QB as part of that rebuild), the Houston QB's a fine guy to target on the cheap.
But don't chase him as though he's a top-6 QB long term. And keep your mind open to selling if there's an attractive opportunity.
Joe Burrow's the elite version of this style QB in fantasy, not a reasonable comp for Stroud's scoring outlook.
There's good news for Stroud if your league plays through Week 18: He finishes with the Titans.
Stroud threw for 247 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs in the Week 12 visit to Tennessee.
Houston scored 27 points in that game but managed only 260 total yards and lost.
The Titans allowed 370+ yards to three of four opponents since then, and the other was the Mac Jones Jaguars.
Stroud still doesn't stand out as especially attractive for Week 18, but there's upside.
We'll have to see exactly what Houston does this offseason.
It's clear we can't count on WR Tank Dell in the 2025 plans after his terrible knee injury.
Nico Collins looks like a star and will turn just 26 in March. But Stefon Diggs will be an unrestricted free agent at 31 and coming off an ACL tear. We shouldn't factor him into 2025 either.
That leaves the Texans looking needy at WR. And O-line upgrades wouldn't hurt. Houston has gotten disappointing returns on recent draftees G Kenyon Green and C/G Kendrick Green.
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