The Bills have agreed to a three-year deal with WR Josh Palmer. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Palmer will get $36 million, with $18 million of that guaranteed. Palmer spent his first four seasons with the Chargers, falling short of 40 receptions in three of those years. That included last year, when his 2.6 receptions per game trailed Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly and narrowly led J.K. Dobbins (2.5).
Palmer lands in a nice spot for opportunity. WR Khalil Shakir was the only Bills player to exceed 75 targets last year, and even he managed just a 21.2% share of targets over his 15 games (36th among WRs league wide).
Palmer's biggest season to date (2022) found him claiming 15% target share with the Chargers. He trailed only RB Austin Ekeler in targets and receptions in a year that saw WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both lose multiple games to injuries.
Getting $12 million per year in Buffalo seems like a lot. It's worth noting, however, that Palmer's getting less than the $13 million per year Gabe Davis got when the Bills let him walk in free agency last March. It's also less than the $15 million per year Shakir just re-signed for.
It's enough money to guarantee Palmer an outside starting spot with an upside QB. But be careful not to overrate his upside based on the contract.
Palmer will still compete with Shakir, TE Dalton Kincaid, and second-year WR Keon Coleman for targets.
Expect Buffalo to continue spreading targets around rather than leaning too heavily on any guy. That will make Palmer -- and others -- frustrating for week-to-week fantasy usage.
The contract doesn't necessarily make Palmer attractive for dynasty. There might be a sell-high window right now thanks to Josh Allen. But I wouldn't bet on Palmer turning into a lead target for his new team.
Expect him to remain more of a WR4-5 in production.
Coleman faces a clear challenge for opportunities from Palmer. If he can deliver on his early second-round draft capital, though, Coleman should still have a shot to lead Palmer in opportunities.
Just last season, we watched WR Curtis Samuel play a minimal role immediately after signing for $8 million per year in free agency.
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