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The Cowboys High-Powered Passing Game Returns
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Dallas Cowboys 2026 Overview
Schedule TBD
Wins
2024
7
2025 Over/Under
8.5
Play Calling
| 2025 | 2026 Projections | |
| Plays Per Game | 64.9 | 64.2 |
| Pass Rate | 61.1% | 61.6% |
| Run Rate | 38.9% | 38.4% |
Key Additions
- WR Marques Valdes-Scantling
Key Departures
- WR Jalen Tolbert
Notable Coaching Changes
- None
Dak Prescott
Dallas Fed the Volume. Prescott Cashed In.
QB5 on the Season, QB1 Most Weeks
Prescott played the full season in 2025, throwing for 4,552 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs, the second-highest passing total of his career. He added 177 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
Prescott finished:
- QB5 in total fantasy points (313.1)
- QB7 in fantasy points per game (19.6)
- QB3 in expected fantasy points per game
- 10 weeks among the top 12 at QB
Volume Put Prescott Back in QB1 Range
The volume drove Prescott’s production. He ranked:
- second in dropbacks (659)
- second in attempts (605)
- third in passing yards (4,552)
- fourth in passing TDs (30)
- first in throws into the end zone
- second in expected passing TDs
Dallas also gave him one of the league’s best volume environments, ranking third in plays per game (65.9) with a 58.5% pass rate.
The Efficiency Made the Volume Stick
Prescott’s efficiency backed up the fantasy production.
Among 42 qualified QBs, he ranked:
- 13th in completion rate
- 9th in yards per attempt
- 11th in adjusted completion rate
- Third in completion rate over expected
- Sixth in Pro Football Focus pass grade
His PFF profile proved especially strong:
- 86.9 offensive grade (seventh)
- 88.2 passing grade (fifth)
- 83.9% adjusted completion rate (third)
- 31 big-time throws (fifth)
- 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate (14th)
Prescott combined strong efficiency with opportunity. This profile gives him a sturdy QB1 floor with top-five weeks whenever the TDs swing his way.
He also did not collapse when CeeDee Lamb missed three games with a high ankle sprain.
With Lamb:
- 16.86 fantasy points per game
- 268.0 passing yards per game
- 1.46 passing TDs per game
Without Lamb:
- 22.96 fantasy points per game
- 267.0 passing yards per game
- 2.75 passing TDs per game
That does not mean Prescott’s better without Lamb. It does show that his 2025 production was not tied to one WR, because Dallas had enough volume, structure, and talent to keep him productive.
Schottenheimer's Pace Adds an Edge
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer provided a strong environment for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in expected points added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense leaned a little more toward the run in 2025 …
- 2023: 56.7% Pass Rate
- 2024: 61.1% Pass Rate
- 2025: 58.5% Pass Rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons, though. That suggests the dip in pass rate was due to specific game environments rather than a shift in philosophy. RB Javonte Williams also provided a steadier rushing option than the 2024 squad found.
The pace means Prescott doesn’t need to be hyper-efficient to remain a fantasy starter.
The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in PFF pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. Prescott took 31 sacks, with a 4.7% sack rate that ranked 12th.
The OL should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
Prescott Gets Another Friendly Environment
Dallas Brought Back Prescott's Best Help
WR George Pickens added a downfield element in 2025, and Prescott gets him back alongside Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson.
The Cowboys also return some of their receiving depth:
- Ryan Flournoy
- Jonathan Mingo
- KaVontae Turpin
The rest of the offense remains largely intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension, with Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue returning as depth.
First in Plays, Eighth in Pass Rate
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for Prescott.
Dallas ranked:
- First in plays per game in 2025
- Third in pace (seconds per play)
- Eighth in pass rate
- 10th in red-zone pass rate
- 11th in red-zone pass rate over expected
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy, but the pace still pushed Prescott near the top of the league in dropbacks and attempts.
The Ceiling Lives in the TD Swings
Prescott’s offense and weapons give him a strong ceiling case.
- Dallas again ranks near the top of the league in plays.
- The Cowboys remain top-10 in pass attempts.
- Prescott’s strong efficiency holds.
- His end-zone throw volume turns into a few more TDs.
That combination could keep him in the top-7 mix among fantasy QBs.
He already finished QB6 in total points and QB3 in expected points per game last year. Similar efficiency and offensive pace in 2026 could repeat those numbers.
If the Pace Slips, So Does the Floor
If last year’s efficiency and pace slip, Prescott carries more risk.
Prescott’s fantasy value depends heavily on Dallas sustaining elite play volume and avoiding efficiency decline. If Dallas slows down or becomes more run-leaning near the goal line, Prescott could settle closer to QB2 territory.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Prescott finished QB5 in total fantasy points and QB7 per game in 2025. Dallas fueled that with elite volume, ranking first in plays per game and top three in pass attempts and yards. That mix of volume and efficiency keeps him in the QB1 mix for 2026.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Javonte Williams
Workhorse Role Drove the Finish
RB12, Built on Weekly Stability
Williams played 16 games and posted career highs with 1,201 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. He also caught 35 of 51 targets for 137 yards and 2 TDs.
Williams turned in a strong fantasy season across 16 games:
- RB12 in total PPR points (242.8)
- RB12 in PPR points per game (15.18)
- RB8 in expected PPR points per game
He delivered strong weekly consistency:
- Five top-12 finishes
- 12 top-24 finishes
- Just four weeks outside the top 24
- Only one week outside the top 36
That’s the profile of a reliable weekly starter with occasional spike weeks.
Workhorse Usage was Real
Williams served as Dallas’ clear lead back, logging 252 carries, 10th-most in the NFL.
Through Week 17:
- 69% snap rate
- 52% route rate
- 57.9% carry share
- 8.5% target share
His role was even stronger earlier in the season:
Through Week 14:
- 77% snaps
- 59% routes
- 63.4% carries
- 9.3% targets
He also handled high-value touches, ranking fourth in expected rushing TDs through Week 17.
Volume is doing the heavy lifting here, and Dallas gave him enough of it to matter every week.
Williams Created More Than Rankings Suggest
Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.8)
- 17th in rush yards over expected per attempt
- Fifth in yards after contact per attempt
- 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 15th in Pro Football Focus rush grade
His production also backed up the usage:
- 1,201 rushing yards (ninth)
- 11 TDs (seventh)
- 801 yards after contact (10th)
- 51 missed tackles forced (eighth)
The picture is clear: Williams created yards and broke tackles at a high level, even if his overall efficiency mostly sat outside the top 10.
First in Plays Helped the Touch Count
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved to be a strong environment for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense did lean a bit more toward the run in 2025 with Williams.
- 2023: 56.7% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% pass rate
- 2025: 58.5% pass rate
But Williams’ receiving role proved a bit limited. Cowboys RBs drew just 13% of the team’s targets, 29th in the league.
The offensive line, however, was a plus for the run game. It ranked:
- ninth in PFF run-block grade
- fourth in adjusted line yards
- 11th in ESPN run-block win rate
Williams Enters 2026 as Dallas' Lead Back
Three Years, $24 Million, Clear Lead Back
Williams signed a three-year, $24 million contract extension in February, clearly retaining the backfield lead.
The Cowboys did not add competition, with Malik Davis, Jaydon Blue, and Phil Mafah returning to fill out the RB depth chart.
The Core Around Williams Barely Moved
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as the top two WRs. Jake Ferguson also returns as the starting TE.
The offense should remain similar for 2026, with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm following two seasons as Dallas OC.
First in Plays Keeps Williams Busy
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
The pace should keep Williams’ touch count healthy, even in an offense that leans pass-heavy overall and in the red zone.
The lean on the pass does potentially hurt Williams within the offense. Last year, the Cowboys ranked:
- Eighth in pass rate
- 10th in red-zone pass rate
- 11th in red-zone pass rate over expected
Luckily the strong pace still allowed for Williams to get ample touches, but it could be a concern if the Cowboys continue to prioritize the pass over the run.
If the Passing Role Grows, So Does the Finish
Williams hits his ceiling if his expected TDs convert at a higher rate. He ranked 4th in expected rush TDs in 2025, but eighth in actual TDs.
Williams new contract gives an indication that the Cowboys want Williams’ role to grow. His $8 million a year salary certainly is an increase from $2.9 million from 2025. They are paying him like an RB who could see an increase in snap share.
Last year he ranked:
- RB8 in expected PPR points per game
- 4th in expected rushing TDs
With increased snaps that convert more on those TDs, he could put up top-12 fantasy production if the offense continues operating at 2025’s efficiency.
Safe RB2 With Limited Risk
Williams’ downside comes from his limited passing-game ceiling with the Cowboys offense low sticking with low RB target share. Combined with Williams’ average efficiency metrics, Williams remains a volume-based RB option.
His opportunities, plus the new bigger $24 million contract, does make Williams a safe RB option to maintain at least low-end RB2 production.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Williams handled a workhorse role in 2025 and delivered RB1-level volume. He finished RB12 in total PPR points and points per game, despite ranking RB8 in expected scoring. That gap, plus heavy red-zone usage, gives him clear upside if the efficiency improves. Draft him as a volume-driven RB2 in 2026.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
CeeDee Lamb
Volume Kept Lamb in the Fight
Per-Game Finish Tells the Real Story
Lamb delivered a strong PPR season despite missing three games with a high ankle sprain, catching 75 of 117 targets for 1,077 yards and 3 TDs. That volume drove a strong per-game PPR finish:
- WR21 in total PPR points (200.9)
- WR10 in PPR points per game (15.45)
- WR7 in expected PPR points per game
- Four weeks as a top-12 PPR WR
- Nine weeks as a top-24 PPR WR
Target Share Barely Moved Despite Pickens
In 2025:
- 117 targets in 12 games
- 25.7% target share
The Cowboys added George Pickens last offseason, but Lamb’s target share remained consistent from 2024.
- 2023: 29.5%
- 2024 (with Dak): 25.8%
He consistently operated as the leader of the passing offense, even with the Pickens addition.
Dallas also heavily prioritized WRs, with the position drawing 64% of the team’s WR targets (seventh in the NFL).
That structure supports sustained high volume for Lamb.
Career-Best Downfield Usage, Career-Low TD Rate
Lamb’s 2025 efficiency was mixed, but the positive indicators are strong:
- Career-high 11.7 average depth of target
- Career-high 14.4 yards per catch
- 9.2 yards per target (career-best, up from 8.8)
- 2.37 yards per route run (third-best mark among six seasons)
Lamb settled into a more explosive downfield role with his deeper aDOT and extended yards per catch.
On the negative side, Lamb struggled scoring TDs with the addition of Pickens. He scored only 3 TDs (compared to 9 TDs for Pickens). Those 3 TDs were only 10% of the Cowboys TD catches for the year.
Lamb hit a career low in TD rate (4.0%) in 2025. It was the lowest TD total of his career, with the next lowest being 5 TDs as a rookie in 2020.
That TD dip hurt Lamb more in 0.5 PPR and non-PPR leagues, but it looks more like bad luck than a role change:
- 6.6 expected TDs
- 8.8% expected TD rate
- 7.7% career TD rate entering the season
That makes Lamb a clear positive-regression candidate. His role still created scoring chances; he just did not convert them.
Lamb’s underlying usage reinforces his talent and role:
- 41.1% air yards share (second in NFL)
- 3.1 yards of separation (21st)
- 6.0-yard average cushion (48th)
Lamb actually had more separation than in 2024 (2.9) and 2023 (2.7). Combined with his large air-yards share, that shows a downfield role in the Cowboys’ vertical passing game. That shows that Lamb can still perform, despite modest separation, at every level of the field.
This Offense Can Feed Two WR1s
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense under Schottenheimer typically stays around a 58% pass rate:
- 2023: 58.4% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% pass rate
- 2025: 58.5% pass rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons, which suggests that the difference came down more to specific game environments than any shift in philosophy.
The pace means the passing game can support both Lamb and Pickens.
The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in PFF pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
Four Missed Games, No Long-Term Alarm
Lamb suffered a left high ankle sprain in Week 3 and missed four games. He also suffered a concussion in Week 14 but did not miss any games for that.
Lamb has no long-term injury concerns.
Lamb Enters 2026 With WR1 Conditions Intact
Target Share Still Starts With Lamb
Lamb remains Dallas’ top receiving option and appears locked to around a 25% target share with Schottenheimer calling plays.
Lamb had 24.8% in his full games played last season. His competition includes:
- George Pickens (20.6% target share in those games)
- Jake Ferguson (14.4%)
The Cowboys’ offensive pace and pass rate allows the passing game to flourish. They ranked third in the NFL with 65.9 plays per game and tenth in pass rate at 58.5%.
In the full games that Lamb played (Weeks 1-2, 7-17) the fantasy points per game breakdown was:
- Lamb: 16.6
- Pickens: 16.1
- Ferguson: 9.5
When Lamb plays, he leads the team.
The Core Returns.
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Pickens as the other top WR and Ferguson as the lead TE.
The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth.
The offense should remain similar for 2026 with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm following two as Dallas OC.
The Pace Keeps Feeding the Pass Game
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for passing:
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
The Ceiling Is Mostly a TD Correction
Lamb’s path to elite WR1 production is simple. Positive TD regression toward expected level. Lamb averaged 7.6 TDs per season over his first five years. Getting back to his average would give Lamb top-five WR production.
He scored all 3 TDs this season in his full games played (Weeks 1-2, 7-17). Pickens only had four TDs himself in those same games. With a full season of production, Lamb’s TDs should increase to help him hit that ceiling.
The Risks are Mild
The risks are relatively mild. Lamb will continue to have target competition from Pickens and Ferguson, but he led in target share during his full games and that should continue in 2026.
Schottenheimer has shown a consistent pass rate over 58% with a fast pace, giving Lamb and entire offense enough volume to produce.
Ultimately, Lamb holds a high floor while on the field.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Lamb remained a high-end fantasy producer in 2025, finishing WR10 in points per game despite a major TD dip. His underlying usage and efficiency still sat near the top of the league, including WR7 in expected PPR points per game and a 25.7% target share. Positive TD regression alone could push him back into the top-5 among fantasy WRs. He’s a safe WR1 with top-5 upside in 2026.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
George Pickens
Volume Powered Fourth-Year Breakout
Spike Weeks Were the Point
The Cowboys traded a third-round pick for Pickens last offseason, and he rewarded them by catching 93 of 137 targets for 1,429 yards and 9 TDs in a pass-first offense.
Pickens delivered a true breakout season:
- WR6 in PPR points and points per game
- WR13 in expected PPR points per game
- Five weeks as a top-5 PPR WR
- 10 weeks as a top-24 PPR WR
He paired strong volume with elite efficiency for huge spike weeks.
Without Lamb, Pickens Became a WR1
Pickens started alongside CeeDee Lamb, commanding meaningful volume. Over the full season, Pickens drew a 21.3% target share (26th among WRs).
Here were Pickens’ numbers in 12 games with Lamb:
- 7.8 targets per game
- 106.8 receiving yards per game
- 15.9 PPR points per game (WR11)
Those numbers picked up over his four games without Lamb:
- 20.6% target share
- 8.8 targets per game
- 24.2 PPR points per game
That split highlights his ability to scale into a true WR1 role when the opportunity arises.
Efficiency Came on High-Value Targets
Pickens’ 2025 efficiency profile proved elite:
- eighth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
- fourth in ESPN receiver score
- ninth in yards per route run
- third in expected TDs
He combined strong film grades with high-end analytical production.
Pickens also fulfilled a strong downfield role:
- 14.9-yard average depth of target (fifth among all WRs)
- 39.6% air-yards share (third)
The Cowboys’ deep-passing game leveraged Pickens’ best skill set as a downfield threat. The role was similar to what Pickens saw in Pittsburgh:
- 2024: 94 targets, 13.9 aDOT, 45% air yard share
- 2023: 105 targets, 13.5 aDOT, 39.6% air yard share
- 2022: 78 targets, 13.9 aDOT, 34.0% air yard share
The difference? Pickens drew 128 targets in 2025 with the Cowboys, giving that role even more production.
Pickens wins downfield and in contested situations, not via separation or volume underneath:
- 59.6% catch rate (69th)
- 2.2 yards of separation (79th)
Pickens wins downfield and in contested situations, not via separation or volume underneath.
Pickens’ efficiency profile is clear. He achieves dominance in air yards down the field with strong yards after catch (+0.9 over expected). Pickens does this despite below average separation. He thrives on high-value targets rather than easy ones.
Dallas Built the Right Ecosystem for Pickens
The Cowboys’ offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense did become slightly more balanced in 2025 though.
- 2023: 56.7% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% pass rate
- 2025: 58.5% pass rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons.
The pace means the passing game can support both Lamb and Pickens.
The O-line proved more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
No Change Coming for Pickens’ Role
Pickens projects for the same role alongside Lamb and should maintain a 20%+ target share.
Pickens had a 20.6% target share in full games played alongside CeeDee LAmb (Week 1-2, 7-17).
- Lamb (24.8% target share in those games)
- Jake Ferguson (14.4%)
The Cowboys’ offensive pace and pass rate allow the passing game to support Pickens alongside Lamb (with a fair share to Ferguson as well).
Dallas Returns the Pieces That Fed Pickens
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Lamb as the other top WR and Ferguson as lead TE.
The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth.
The offense should remain similar, with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm following two as Dallas OC.
Offensive Tempo Protects Passing Volume
Schottenheimer’s offense has been a fantasy-friendly setup for the passing game.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
If Lamb Misses Time, the WR1 Weeks Return
Pickens showcased his ceiling last season as WR10 in PPR ppg. He achieved career highs in aDOT and ypc as as downfield target. Continuing that success should keep Pickens as a borderline WR1.
If Schottenheimer continues operating the Cowboys offense as he has in the past, the pace and passing game can support both Lamb and Pickens to continue their 2025 success.
Pickens Volatility Creates Risk
There are clear risks in Pickens’ profile. Target competition from Lamb caps volume while his reliance on downfield targets could lead to boom and bust weeks.
Dallas’ offensive pace and pass rate can support both WRs, but Pickens is far more volatile than Lamb. When both played full games, Pickens had three top-five fantasy finishes, but six games outside the top-24.
Lamb had only one top-five finish among those games, but only three games outside the top-24.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Pickens broke out in 2025, finishing as a top-6 fantasy WR in a strong passing environment. He proved he can produce alongside CeeDee Lamb, but his weekly ceiling jumps significantly when operating as the primary option. He’s best viewed as a volatile WR2 with spike-week upside tied to Dallas’ high-powered offense.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Jake Ferguson
Ferguson Got There on Red-Zone Volume
He Finished High Without Feeling Dominant
Ferguson’s raw production landed him near the top of the position: 82 catches on 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 TDs. That left him:
- TE5 in total PPR points (186.1)
- TE10 in PPR points per game (10.95)
Weekly results proved uneven though:
- Seven top-10 finishes
- Eight weeks outside the top 15
- Four weeks outside the top 24
This was a TD-boosted TE1 season, not a consistently strong weekly performer.
Volume Shrinks When the Stars Play
Ferguson handled strong overall volume:
- 102 targets (seventh among TEs)
- 82 receptions (third)
- 16.3% target share (16th)
But his role became much less appealing when CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both played.
In 11 games with Lamb:
- 15.7% share
- TE14 in PPR PPG
- TE11 in expected
In 3 games without Lamb:
- 26.3% share
- TE1 in PPR PPG
- TE1 in expected
Full season:
- 16.3% share
- TE7 in PPR PPG
- TE3 in expected
That’s the key takeaway. When the offense is at full strength, Ferguson looks more like a fringe TE1 than a top-tier option.
Ferguson’s fantasy finish was driven heavily by scoring opportunity:
- 8 TDs (tied for third among TEs)
- 9.1 expected TDs (second)
- 27 red-zone targets (second)
- 12 end-zone targets (third)
The Cowboys ranked third in the NFL with 200 snaps in the red zone. They have consistently ranked near the top the NFL under Schottenheimer including eighth in 2024 and first in 2023.
You Should be Wary of the Poor Efficiency
This is where the biggest red flags show up. Ferguson’s reliance on TDs leaves his scoring fragile if the TDs dissipate. And he didn’t deliver encouraging numbers otherwise.
Among 38 TEs with 40+ targets in 2025, Ferguson ranked:
- 34th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
- 32nd in yards per route run (1.20, career low)
- 33rd in yards after catch per reception
Even more concerning: His yards per route run have declined each season. Ferguson continues to lose opportunities each year as the Cowboys spread the ball to other options. Each year, Ferguson is turning his on-field opportunity into less production.
Dallas Creates Volume. Ferguson Needs It.
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense did become slightly more balanced in 2025 though.
- 2023: 56.7% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% Pass Rate
- 2025: 58.5% Pass Rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons.
The pace keeps this passing game fantasy-friendly.
The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
Same Role, Same Crowded Target Tree
The Same Core Keeps Ferguson Third in Line
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Lamb and Pickens as the top WRs. They figure to similarly control target shares, simply because they’re much more talented than Ferguson.
The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth as well.
The offense should remain similar for 2026 with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm after two as Dallas OC.
Scheme Helps the Floor
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for passing.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
His Ceiling Lives in the Red Zone
Ferguson hits his ceiling if:
- Red-zone usage stays elite
- TDs remain near the top of the position
- Target share climbs closer to 18–20%
- One of the WRs misses extended time.
That path likely lands him as a top-10 TE once again.
If the TDs Dip, Ferguson’s Production Becomes Mediocre
Ferguson’s profile does present some major risk factors. He has a poor efficiency profile (bottom-third across key metrics) with heavy TD reliance. Ferguson showed his floor when the offense was at full strength and CeeDee Lamb was on the field.
His TDs will likely regress if Lamb and Pickens play all season. Ferguson falls into TE2 territory for the full season if that happens. His 2026 scoring will be closely tied to red-zone usage.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Ferguson finished as a top-10 fantasy TE in 2025, but the profile was shakier than it looked. His production leaned heavily on TDs, while his efficiency metrics ranked near the bottom of the position. His weekly output also dropped alongside both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, making him more of a mid-range TE2 than a true difference-maker.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
The Cowboys High-Powered Passing Game Returns
Player Profiles
Dallas Cowboys 2026 Overview
Schedule TBD
Wins
2024
7
2025 Over/Under
8.5
Play Calling
| 2025 | 2026 Projections | |
| Plays Per Game | 64.9 | 64.2 |
| Pass Rate | 61.1% | 61.6% |
| Run Rate | 38.9% | 38.4% |
Key Additions
- WR Marques Valdes-Scantling
Key Departures
- WR Jalen Tolbert
Notable Coaching Changes
- None
Dak Prescott
Dallas Fed the Volume. Prescott Cashed In.
QB5 on the Season, QB1 Most Weeks
Prescott played the full season in 2025, throwing for 4,552 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs, the second-highest passing total of his career. He added 177 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
Prescott finished:
- QB5 in total fantasy points (313.1)
- QB7 in fantasy points per game (19.6)
- QB3 in expected fantasy points per game
- 10 weeks among the top 12 at QB
Volume Put Prescott Back in QB1 Range
The volume drove Prescott’s production. He ranked:
- second in dropbacks (659)
- second in attempts (605)
- third in passing yards (4,552)
- fourth in passing TDs (30)
- first in throws into the end zone
- second in expected passing TDs
Dallas also gave him one of the league’s best volume environments, ranking third in plays per game (65.9) with a 58.5% pass rate.
The Efficiency Made the Volume Stick
Prescott’s efficiency backed up the fantasy production.
Among 42 qualified QBs, he ranked:
- 13th in completion rate
- 9th in yards per attempt
- 11th in adjusted completion rate
- Third in completion rate over expected
- Sixth in Pro Football Focus pass grade
His PFF profile proved especially strong:
- 86.9 offensive grade (seventh)
- 88.2 passing grade (fifth)
- 83.9% adjusted completion rate (third)
- 31 big-time throws (fifth)
- 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate (14th)
Prescott combined strong efficiency with opportunity. This profile gives him a sturdy QB1 floor with top-five weeks whenever the TDs swing his way.
He also did not collapse when CeeDee Lamb missed three games with a high ankle sprain.
With Lamb:
- 16.86 fantasy points per game
- 268.0 passing yards per game
- 1.46 passing TDs per game
Without Lamb:
- 22.96 fantasy points per game
- 267.0 passing yards per game
- 2.75 passing TDs per game
That does not mean Prescott’s better without Lamb. It does show that his 2025 production was not tied to one WR, because Dallas had enough volume, structure, and talent to keep him productive.
Schottenheimer's Pace Adds an Edge
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer provided a strong environment for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in expected points added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense leaned a little more toward the run in 2025 …
- 2023: 56.7% Pass Rate
- 2024: 61.1% Pass Rate
- 2025: 58.5% Pass Rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons, though. That suggests the dip in pass rate was due to specific game environments rather than a shift in philosophy. RB Javonte Williams also provided a steadier rushing option than the 2024 squad found.
The pace means Prescott doesn’t need to be hyper-efficient to remain a fantasy starter.
The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in PFF pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. Prescott took 31 sacks, with a 4.7% sack rate that ranked 12th.
The OL should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
Prescott Gets Another Friendly Environment
Dallas Brought Back Prescott's Best Help
WR George Pickens added a downfield element in 2025, and Prescott gets him back alongside Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson.
The Cowboys also return some of their receiving depth:
- Ryan Flournoy
- Jonathan Mingo
- KaVontae Turpin
The rest of the offense remains largely intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension, with Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue returning as depth.
First in Plays, Eighth in Pass Rate
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for Prescott.
Dallas ranked:
- First in plays per game in 2025
- Third in pace (seconds per play)
- Eighth in pass rate
- 10th in red-zone pass rate
- 11th in red-zone pass rate over expected
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy, but the pace still pushed Prescott near the top of the league in dropbacks and attempts.
The Ceiling Lives in the TD Swings
Prescott’s offense and weapons give him a strong ceiling case.
- Dallas again ranks near the top of the league in plays.
- The Cowboys remain top-10 in pass attempts.
- Prescott’s strong efficiency holds.
- His end-zone throw volume turns into a few more TDs.
That combination could keep him in the top-7 mix among fantasy QBs.
He already finished QB6 in total points and QB3 in expected points per game last year. Similar efficiency and offensive pace in 2026 could repeat those numbers.
If the Pace Slips, So Does the Floor
If last year’s efficiency and pace slip, Prescott carries more risk.
Prescott’s fantasy value depends heavily on Dallas sustaining elite play volume and avoiding efficiency decline. If Dallas slows down or becomes more run-leaning near the goal line, Prescott could settle closer to QB2 territory.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Prescott finished QB5 in total fantasy points and QB7 per game in 2025. Dallas fueled that with elite volume, ranking first in plays per game and top three in pass attempts and yards. That mix of volume and efficiency keeps him in the QB1 mix for 2026.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Javonte Williams
Workhorse Role Drove the Finish
RB12, Built on Weekly Stability
Williams played 16 games and posted career highs with 1,201 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. He also caught 35 of 51 targets for 137 yards and 2 TDs.
Williams turned in a strong fantasy season across 16 games:
- RB12 in total PPR points (242.8)
- RB12 in PPR points per game (15.18)
- RB8 in expected PPR points per game
He delivered strong weekly consistency:
- Five top-12 finishes
- 12 top-24 finishes
- Just four weeks outside the top 24
- Only one week outside the top 36
That’s the profile of a reliable weekly starter with occasional spike weeks.
Workhorse Usage was Real
Williams served as Dallas’ clear lead back, logging 252 carries, 10th-most in the NFL.
Through Week 17:
- 69% snap rate
- 52% route rate
- 57.9% carry share
- 8.5% target share
His role was even stronger earlier in the season:
Through Week 14:
- 77% snaps
- 59% routes
- 63.4% carries
- 9.3% targets
He also handled high-value touches, ranking fourth in expected rushing TDs through Week 17.
Volume is doing the heavy lifting here, and Dallas gave him enough of it to matter every week.
Williams Created More Than Rankings Suggest
Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.8)
- 17th in rush yards over expected per attempt
- Fifth in yards after contact per attempt
- 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 15th in Pro Football Focus rush grade
His production also backed up the usage:
- 1,201 rushing yards (ninth)
- 11 TDs (seventh)
- 801 yards after contact (10th)
- 51 missed tackles forced (eighth)
The picture is clear: Williams created yards and broke tackles at a high level, even if his overall efficiency mostly sat outside the top 10.
First in Plays Helped the Touch Count
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved to be a strong environment for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense did lean a bit more toward the run in 2025 with Williams.
- 2023: 56.7% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% pass rate
- 2025: 58.5% pass rate
But Williams’ receiving role proved a bit limited. Cowboys RBs drew just 13% of the team’s targets, 29th in the league.
The offensive line, however, was a plus for the run game. It ranked:
- ninth in PFF run-block grade
- fourth in adjusted line yards
- 11th in ESPN run-block win rate
Williams Enters 2026 as Dallas' Lead Back
Three Years, $24 Million, Clear Lead Back
Williams signed a three-year, $24 million contract extension in February, clearly retaining the backfield lead.
The Cowboys did not add competition, with Malik Davis, Jaydon Blue, and Phil Mafah returning to fill out the RB depth chart.
The Core Around Williams Barely Moved
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as the top two WRs. Jake Ferguson also returns as the starting TE.
The offense should remain similar for 2026, with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm following two seasons as Dallas OC.
First in Plays Keeps Williams Busy
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
The pace should keep Williams’ touch count healthy, even in an offense that leans pass-heavy overall and in the red zone.
The lean on the pass does potentially hurt Williams within the offense. Last year, the Cowboys ranked:
- Eighth in pass rate
- 10th in red-zone pass rate
- 11th in red-zone pass rate over expected
Luckily the strong pace still allowed for Williams to get ample touches, but it could be a concern if the Cowboys continue to prioritize the pass over the run.
If the Passing Role Grows, So Does the Finish
Williams hits his ceiling if his expected TDs convert at a higher rate. He ranked 4th in expected rush TDs in 2025, but eighth in actual TDs.
Williams new contract gives an indication that the Cowboys want Williams’ role to grow. His $8 million a year salary certainly is an increase from $2.9 million from 2025. They are paying him like an RB who could see an increase in snap share.
Last year he ranked:
- RB8 in expected PPR points per game
- 4th in expected rushing TDs
With increased snaps that convert more on those TDs, he could put up top-12 fantasy production if the offense continues operating at 2025’s efficiency.
Safe RB2 With Limited Risk
Williams’ downside comes from his limited passing-game ceiling with the Cowboys offense low sticking with low RB target share. Combined with Williams’ average efficiency metrics, Williams remains a volume-based RB option.
His opportunities, plus the new bigger $24 million contract, does make Williams a safe RB option to maintain at least low-end RB2 production.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Williams handled a workhorse role in 2025 and delivered RB1-level volume. He finished RB12 in total PPR points and points per game, despite ranking RB8 in expected scoring. That gap, plus heavy red-zone usage, gives him clear upside if the efficiency improves. Draft him as a volume-driven RB2 in 2026.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
CeeDee Lamb
Volume Kept Lamb in the Fight
Per-Game Finish Tells the Real Story
Lamb delivered a strong PPR season despite missing three games with a high ankle sprain, catching 75 of 117 targets for 1,077 yards and 3 TDs. That volume drove a strong per-game PPR finish:
- WR21 in total PPR points (200.9)
- WR10 in PPR points per game (15.45)
- WR7 in expected PPR points per game
- Four weeks as a top-12 PPR WR
- Nine weeks as a top-24 PPR WR
Target Share Barely Moved Despite Pickens
In 2025:
- 117 targets in 12 games
- 25.7% target share
The Cowboys added George Pickens last offseason, but Lamb’s target share remained consistent from 2024.
- 2023: 29.5%
- 2024 (with Dak): 25.8%
He consistently operated as the leader of the passing offense, even with the Pickens addition.
Dallas also heavily prioritized WRs, with the position drawing 64% of the team’s WR targets (seventh in the NFL).
That structure supports sustained high volume for Lamb.
Career-Best Downfield Usage, Career-Low TD Rate
Lamb’s 2025 efficiency was mixed, but the positive indicators are strong:
- Career-high 11.7 average depth of target
- Career-high 14.4 yards per catch
- 9.2 yards per target (career-best, up from 8.8)
- 2.37 yards per route run (third-best mark among six seasons)
Lamb settled into a more explosive downfield role with his deeper aDOT and extended yards per catch.
On the negative side, Lamb struggled scoring TDs with the addition of Pickens. He scored only 3 TDs (compared to 9 TDs for Pickens). Those 3 TDs were only 10% of the Cowboys TD catches for the year.
Lamb hit a career low in TD rate (4.0%) in 2025. It was the lowest TD total of his career, with the next lowest being 5 TDs as a rookie in 2020.
That TD dip hurt Lamb more in 0.5 PPR and non-PPR leagues, but it looks more like bad luck than a role change:
- 6.6 expected TDs
- 8.8% expected TD rate
- 7.7% career TD rate entering the season
That makes Lamb a clear positive-regression candidate. His role still created scoring chances; he just did not convert them.
Lamb’s underlying usage reinforces his talent and role:
- 41.1% air yards share (second in NFL)
- 3.1 yards of separation (21st)
- 6.0-yard average cushion (48th)
Lamb actually had more separation than in 2024 (2.9) and 2023 (2.7). Combined with his large air-yards share, that shows a downfield role in the Cowboys’ vertical passing game. That shows that Lamb can still perform, despite modest separation, at every level of the field.
This Offense Can Feed Two WR1s
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense under Schottenheimer typically stays around a 58% pass rate:
- 2023: 58.4% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% pass rate
- 2025: 58.5% pass rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons, which suggests that the difference came down more to specific game environments than any shift in philosophy.
The pace means the passing game can support both Lamb and Pickens.
The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in PFF pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
Four Missed Games, No Long-Term Alarm
Lamb suffered a left high ankle sprain in Week 3 and missed four games. He also suffered a concussion in Week 14 but did not miss any games for that.
Lamb has no long-term injury concerns.
Lamb Enters 2026 With WR1 Conditions Intact
Target Share Still Starts With Lamb
Lamb remains Dallas’ top receiving option and appears locked to around a 25% target share with Schottenheimer calling plays.
Lamb had 24.8% in his full games played last season. His competition includes:
- George Pickens (20.6% target share in those games)
- Jake Ferguson (14.4%)
The Cowboys’ offensive pace and pass rate allows the passing game to flourish. They ranked third in the NFL with 65.9 plays per game and tenth in pass rate at 58.5%.
In the full games that Lamb played (Weeks 1-2, 7-17) the fantasy points per game breakdown was:
- Lamb: 16.6
- Pickens: 16.1
- Ferguson: 9.5
When Lamb plays, he leads the team.
The Core Returns.
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Pickens as the other top WR and Ferguson as the lead TE.
The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth.
The offense should remain similar for 2026 with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm following two as Dallas OC.
The Pace Keeps Feeding the Pass Game
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for passing:
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
The Ceiling Is Mostly a TD Correction
Lamb’s path to elite WR1 production is simple. Positive TD regression toward expected level. Lamb averaged 7.6 TDs per season over his first five years. Getting back to his average would give Lamb top-five WR production.
He scored all 3 TDs this season in his full games played (Weeks 1-2, 7-17). Pickens only had four TDs himself in those same games. With a full season of production, Lamb’s TDs should increase to help him hit that ceiling.
The Risks are Mild
The risks are relatively mild. Lamb will continue to have target competition from Pickens and Ferguson, but he led in target share during his full games and that should continue in 2026.
Schottenheimer has shown a consistent pass rate over 58% with a fast pace, giving Lamb and entire offense enough volume to produce.
Ultimately, Lamb holds a high floor while on the field.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Lamb remained a high-end fantasy producer in 2025, finishing WR10 in points per game despite a major TD dip. His underlying usage and efficiency still sat near the top of the league, including WR7 in expected PPR points per game and a 25.7% target share. Positive TD regression alone could push him back into the top-5 among fantasy WRs. He’s a safe WR1 with top-5 upside in 2026.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
George Pickens
Volume Powered Fourth-Year Breakout
Spike Weeks Were the Point
The Cowboys traded a third-round pick for Pickens last offseason, and he rewarded them by catching 93 of 137 targets for 1,429 yards and 9 TDs in a pass-first offense.
Pickens delivered a true breakout season:
- WR6 in PPR points and points per game
- WR13 in expected PPR points per game
- Five weeks as a top-5 PPR WR
- 10 weeks as a top-24 PPR WR
He paired strong volume with elite efficiency for huge spike weeks.
Without Lamb, Pickens Became a WR1
Pickens started alongside CeeDee Lamb, commanding meaningful volume. Over the full season, Pickens drew a 21.3% target share (26th among WRs).
Here were Pickens’ numbers in 12 games with Lamb:
- 7.8 targets per game
- 106.8 receiving yards per game
- 15.9 PPR points per game (WR11)
Those numbers picked up over his four games without Lamb:
- 20.6% target share
- 8.8 targets per game
- 24.2 PPR points per game
That split highlights his ability to scale into a true WR1 role when the opportunity arises.
Efficiency Came on High-Value Targets
Pickens’ 2025 efficiency profile proved elite:
- eighth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
- fourth in ESPN receiver score
- ninth in yards per route run
- third in expected TDs
He combined strong film grades with high-end analytical production.
Pickens also fulfilled a strong downfield role:
- 14.9-yard average depth of target (fifth among all WRs)
- 39.6% air-yards share (third)
The Cowboys’ deep-passing game leveraged Pickens’ best skill set as a downfield threat. The role was similar to what Pickens saw in Pittsburgh:
- 2024: 94 targets, 13.9 aDOT, 45% air yard share
- 2023: 105 targets, 13.5 aDOT, 39.6% air yard share
- 2022: 78 targets, 13.9 aDOT, 34.0% air yard share
The difference? Pickens drew 128 targets in 2025 with the Cowboys, giving that role even more production.
Pickens wins downfield and in contested situations, not via separation or volume underneath:
- 59.6% catch rate (69th)
- 2.2 yards of separation (79th)
Pickens wins downfield and in contested situations, not via separation or volume underneath.
Pickens’ efficiency profile is clear. He achieves dominance in air yards down the field with strong yards after catch (+0.9 over expected). Pickens does this despite below average separation. He thrives on high-value targets rather than easy ones.
Dallas Built the Right Ecosystem for Pickens
The Cowboys’ offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense did become slightly more balanced in 2025 though.
- 2023: 56.7% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% pass rate
- 2025: 58.5% pass rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons.
The pace means the passing game can support both Lamb and Pickens.
The O-line proved more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
No Change Coming for Pickens’ Role
Pickens projects for the same role alongside Lamb and should maintain a 20%+ target share.
Pickens had a 20.6% target share in full games played alongside CeeDee LAmb (Week 1-2, 7-17).
- Lamb (24.8% target share in those games)
- Jake Ferguson (14.4%)
The Cowboys’ offensive pace and pass rate allow the passing game to support Pickens alongside Lamb (with a fair share to Ferguson as well).
Dallas Returns the Pieces That Fed Pickens
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Lamb as the other top WR and Ferguson as lead TE.
The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth.
The offense should remain similar, with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm following two as Dallas OC.
Offensive Tempo Protects Passing Volume
Schottenheimer’s offense has been a fantasy-friendly setup for the passing game.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
If Lamb Misses Time, the WR1 Weeks Return
Pickens showcased his ceiling last season as WR10 in PPR ppg. He achieved career highs in aDOT and ypc as as downfield target. Continuing that success should keep Pickens as a borderline WR1.
If Schottenheimer continues operating the Cowboys offense as he has in the past, the pace and passing game can support both Lamb and Pickens to continue their 2025 success.
Pickens Volatility Creates Risk
There are clear risks in Pickens’ profile. Target competition from Lamb caps volume while his reliance on downfield targets could lead to boom and bust weeks.
Dallas’ offensive pace and pass rate can support both WRs, but Pickens is far more volatile than Lamb. When both played full games, Pickens had three top-five fantasy finishes, but six games outside the top-24.
Lamb had only one top-five finish among those games, but only three games outside the top-24.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Pickens broke out in 2025, finishing as a top-6 fantasy WR in a strong passing environment. He proved he can produce alongside CeeDee Lamb, but his weekly ceiling jumps significantly when operating as the primary option. He’s best viewed as a volatile WR2 with spike-week upside tied to Dallas’ high-powered offense.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Jake Ferguson
Ferguson Got There on Red-Zone Volume
He Finished High Without Feeling Dominant
Ferguson’s raw production landed him near the top of the position: 82 catches on 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 TDs. That left him:
- TE5 in total PPR points (186.1)
- TE10 in PPR points per game (10.95)
Weekly results proved uneven though:
- Seven top-10 finishes
- Eight weeks outside the top 15
- Four weeks outside the top 24
This was a TD-boosted TE1 season, not a consistently strong weekly performer.
Volume Shrinks When the Stars Play
Ferguson handled strong overall volume:
- 102 targets (seventh among TEs)
- 82 receptions (third)
- 16.3% target share (16th)
But his role became much less appealing when CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both played.
In 11 games with Lamb:
- 15.7% share
- TE14 in PPR PPG
- TE11 in expected
In 3 games without Lamb:
- 26.3% share
- TE1 in PPR PPG
- TE1 in expected
Full season:
- 16.3% share
- TE7 in PPR PPG
- TE3 in expected
That’s the key takeaway. When the offense is at full strength, Ferguson looks more like a fringe TE1 than a top-tier option.
Ferguson’s fantasy finish was driven heavily by scoring opportunity:
- 8 TDs (tied for third among TEs)
- 9.1 expected TDs (second)
- 27 red-zone targets (second)
- 12 end-zone targets (third)
The Cowboys ranked third in the NFL with 200 snaps in the red zone. They have consistently ranked near the top the NFL under Schottenheimer including eighth in 2024 and first in 2023.
You Should be Wary of the Poor Efficiency
This is where the biggest red flags show up. Ferguson’s reliance on TDs leaves his scoring fragile if the TDs dissipate. And he didn’t deliver encouraging numbers otherwise.
Among 38 TEs with 40+ targets in 2025, Ferguson ranked:
- 34th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
- 32nd in yards per route run (1.20, career low)
- 33rd in yards after catch per reception
Even more concerning: His yards per route run have declined each season. Ferguson continues to lose opportunities each year as the Cowboys spread the ball to other options. Each year, Ferguson is turning his on-field opportunity into less production.
Dallas Creates Volume. Ferguson Needs It.
The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.
They ranked:
- Third in total yards per game
- Fourth in passing yards per game
- Sixth in passing TDs per game
- First in plays per game
- Eighth in pass rate
- Fifth in Expected Points Added per play
Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :
- 2023: third (66 plays per game)
- 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
- 2025: third (65.9)
The offense did become slightly more balanced in 2025 though.
- 2023: 56.7% pass rate
- 2024: 61.1% Pass Rate
- 2025: 58.5% Pass Rate
The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons.
The pace keeps this passing game fantasy-friendly.
The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.
Same Role, Same Crowded Target Tree
The Same Core Keeps Ferguson Third in Line
The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Lamb and Pickens as the top WRs. They figure to similarly control target shares, simply because they’re much more talented than Ferguson.
The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth as well.
The offense should remain similar for 2026 with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm after two as Dallas OC.
Scheme Helps the Floor
Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for passing.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
| Pace | 65.9 (Third) | 64.9 (First) | 66.0 (Third) |
| Pass Rate | 58.5% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.
His Ceiling Lives in the Red Zone
Ferguson hits his ceiling if:
- Red-zone usage stays elite
- TDs remain near the top of the position
- Target share climbs closer to 18–20%
- One of the WRs misses extended time.
That path likely lands him as a top-10 TE once again.
If the TDs Dip, Ferguson’s Production Becomes Mediocre
Ferguson’s profile does present some major risk factors. He has a poor efficiency profile (bottom-third across key metrics) with heavy TD reliance. Ferguson showed his floor when the offense was at full strength and CeeDee Lamb was on the field.
His TDs will likely regress if Lamb and Pickens play all season. Ferguson falls into TE2 territory for the full season if that happens. His 2026 scoring will be closely tied to red-zone usage.
Draft Sharks Verdict
Ferguson finished as a top-10 fantasy TE in 2025, but the profile was shakier than it looked. His production leaned heavily on TDs, while his efficiency metrics ranked near the bottom of the position. His weekly output also dropped alongside both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, making him more of a mid-range TE2 than a true difference-maker.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
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