Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 4

 

Welcome to Week 4’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

With three week’s worth of 2024 data, we’re starting to get a good idea of what all of these offenses and defenses will look like this season. 

And this week is the debut of our adjusted fantasy points allowed, which shows the percentage by which each defense has boosted or reduced fantasy production to each position. It's a much better metric than raw fantasy points allowed because it takes into account strength of opponent for every defense.

As always, you should check the Week 4 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 4!

  

Highest Game Totals

1. Commanders at Cardinals (49.5)

2. Bengals at Panthers (47.0)

t-3. Bills at Ravens (46.5)

t-3. Seahawks at Lions (46.5)

5. Cowboys at Giants (45.0)

7. Jaguars at Texans (44.5)

 

Lowest Game Totals

28. Rams at Bears (40.5)

29.. Steelers at Colts (40.0)

30. Broncos at Jets (39.5)

31. Titans at Dolphins (37.0)

32. Browns at Raiders (36.5)

  

Highest Implied Points

1. Cardinals (26.5)

2. 49ers (26.0)

3. Bengals (25.75)

t-4. Texans (25.0)

t-4. Lions (25.0)

t-4. Cowboys (25.0)

 

Lowest Implied Points

t-28. Raiders (17.25)

t-28. Titans (17.25)

30. Chargers (17.0)

31. Broncos (15.75)

32. Patriots (15.5)

   

Most Projected Plays

1. Eagles (66.5)

2. Lions (65.5)

3. Texans (64.8)

4. Browns (64.5)

5. Cowboys (64.1)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Dolphins (60.7)

29. Titans (60.5)

30. Raiders (60.4)

31. Chargers (59.5)

32. Patriots (58.5)

 

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Rams at Bears (25.8 seconds)

2. Seahawks at Lions (27.1 seconds)

3. Saints at Falcons (27.2 seconds)

4. Jaguars at Texans (27.4 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

28. Broncos at Jets (29.7 seconds)

29. Eagles at Buccaneers (30.0 seconds)

30. Patriots at 49ers (30.1 seconds)

31. Bengals at Panthers (30.5 seconds)

32. Commanders at Cardinals (30.6 seconds)

 

Weather Concerns

Rams at Bears

Winds forecasted at 15-20 mph. That could impact deep passes and kicks, but we're not adjusting any projections in this game.

  

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Cardinals vs. Commanders (+106.0%)

2. Bills at Ravens (+100.7%)

3. Commanders at Cardinals (+75.3%)

4. 49ers vs. Patriots (+71.6%)

5. Saints at Falcons (+57.5%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Trevor Lawrence at Texans (+121%)

2. C.J. Stroud vs. Jaguars (+121%)

3. Kyler Murray vs. Commanders (+105%)

4. Caleb Williams vs. Rams (+83%)

5. Kirk Cousins vs. Saints (+69%)

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Rams at Bears (-11.7%)

29. Broncos at Jets (-12.0%)

30. Jaguars at Texans (-19.6%)

31. Colts vs. Steelers (-24.5%)

32. Lions vs. Seahawks (-38.8%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Matt Stafford at Bears (-42%)

29. Anthony Richardson vs. Steelers (-43%)

30. Sam Darnold at Packers (-47%)

31. Will Levis at Dolphins (-52%)

32. Lamar Jackson vs. Bills (-53%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith finished QB21 in fantasy points last week, largely because he wasn't pushed by the Tua-less Dolphins.

He played well again, though, completing 77% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt. He ranks third in completion rate and 10th in yards per attempt through three weeks.

Smith finished QB8 in tighter Week 1 and 2 contests and should have volume on his side again in Week 4. His Seahawks are 3.5-point underdogs in Detroit on Monday night. That game has a 46.5-point over/under.

Sam Darnold, Vikings

Darnold has opened the season with QB14, QB4, and QB9 fantasy finishes. His 10.3% TD rate is bound to come down, but Darnold has also completed 68% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt. He's playing good ball, ranking fourth in Pro Football Focus passing grades.

Week 4 brings a middling Green Bay pass defense. The Packers haven't been tested much by Anthony Richardson and Will Levis the past two weeks, but they allowed a 278-2-2 passing line on 8.2 yards per attempt to Jalen Hurts in the opener.

It looks like Darnold will get WR Jordan Addison back for this one.

 

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Bengals at Panthers (+26.8%)

2. Giants vs. Cowboys (+23.8%)

3. Ravens vs. Bills (+21.4%)

4. Saints at Falcons (+16.7%)

5. Titans at Dolphins (+15.6%)

 

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Cardinals vs. Commanders (+149%)

29. Chiefs at Chargers (+108%)

30. Vikings at Packers (+60%)

31. Titans at Dolphins (+57%)

32. Jaguars at Texans (+49%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Dolphins vs. Titans (-28.6%)

29. Packers vs. Vikings (-28.9%)

30. Broncos at Jets (-32.3%)

31. Bears vs. Rams (-39.3%)

32. Raiders vs. Browns (-48.8%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Bengals at Panthers (-26%)

29. Bears vs. Rams (-29%)

30. Patriots at 49ers (-33%)

31. Saints at Falcons (-39%)

32. Seahawks at Lions (-61%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Brian Robinson, Commanders

Robinson is running well, ranking ninth in NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per attempt and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. He's finished as a top-25 PPR RB in all three weeks so far.

RB Austin Ekeler is out for Week 4 with his concussion, which should mean more work for Robinson in a nice spot in a likely shootout vs. the Cardinals.

Devin Singletary, Giants

Singletary continues to get strong usage. He's played 73% of the Giants' offensive snaps and handled 56% of the team's carries. Those are both top-9 marks among all RBs. Singletary ranks 22nd in expected PPR points per game.

And he's playing well. Singletary sits 19th in rush yards over expected per attempt and leads the league in missed tackles forced per carry.

Thursday night brings a reeling Cowboys defense to town. Dallas has coughed up 392 rushing yards and six TDs on 5.4 yards per carry through three weeks. The Cowboys rank dead last in run defense DVOA.

 

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Texans vs. Jaguars (+94%)

2. Buccaneers vs. Eagles (+84%)

3. Cardinals vs. Commanders (+63%)

4. 49ers vs. Patriots (+52%)

5. Bills at Ravens (+51%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Dolphins vs. Titans (-34%)

29. Colts vs. Steelers (-38%)

30. Ravens vs. Bills (-39%)

31. Rams at Bears (-41%)

32. Jets vs. Broncos (-53%)

 

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Andrei Iosivas vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Troy Hill

Cardinals WRs Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Mike Sainristil, and Noah Igbinoghene

Seahawks WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Lions CBs Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold

Bears WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen vs. Rams CBs Tre White, Cobie Durant, and Quentin Lake

Panthers WR Diontae Johnson vs. Bengals CBs Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill

Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Steelers CB Beanie Bishop

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Tre Brown, and Devon Witherspoon

Colts WR Michael Pittman vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie

 

Sneaky Starters

Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, WRs, Cardinals

Picking on the Commanders secondary is one of the safest bets in fantasy football right now. Through three weeks, Washington has allowed the:

• 5th most WR receptions
• 3rd most WR receiving yards
• most WR receiving TDs
• most WR PPR points

Multiple WRs have scored 16+ PPR points vs. the Commanders in two of three games. Wilson and Dortch are both candidates for more targets if WR Trey McBride misses this one with his concussion.

  

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Cardinals vs. Commanders (+196%)

2. Bengals at Panthers (+190%)

3. Seahawks at Lions (+186%)

4. Packers vs. Vikings (+170%)

5. Vikings at Packers (+132%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Giants vs. Cowboys (-53%)

29. Buccaneers vs. Eagles (-56%)

30. Panthers vs. Bengals (-58%)

31. Eagles at Buccaneers (-60%)

32. Broncos at Jets (-62%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Tyler Conklin, Jets

After a quiet two games to open the season, Conklin busted out with 93 yards on five catches in Week 3.

The playing time has been there all along. Conklin has posted an 85+% route rate in all three games so far. His 90% route rate on the season leads all TEs.

Next up is a Broncos defense that ranks 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. With WR Garrett Wilson likely to draw shadow coverage from CB Pat Surtain, Conklin could see more targets come his way.

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Texans vs. Jaguars (+867%)

2. Raiders vs Browns (+633%)

3. Seahawks at Lions (+367%)

4. Dolphins vs. Titans (+333%)

5. Rams at Bears (+244%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Bills at Ravens (-61%)

29. Patriots at 49ers (-66%)

30. Commanders at Cardinals (-67%)

31. Ravens vs. Bills (-80%)

32. Falcons vs. Saints (-85%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 4 Streaming DSTs.

  

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Wil Lutz at Jets (+113%)

2. Ka’imi Fairbairn vs. Jaguars (+100%)

3. Tyler Bass at Ravens (+81%)

4. Jason Sanders vs. Titans (+67%)

5. Blake Grupe at Falcons (+51%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Justin Tucker vs. Bills (-54%)

29. Harrison Butker at Chargers (-55%)

30. Brayden Narveson vs. Vikings (-61%)

31. Greg Joseph vs. Cowboys (-62%)

32. Greg Zuerlein vs. Broncos (-62%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Matt Prater, Cardinals

Prater has drilled two FGs in each of the season's first three games. He's a top-12 fantasy kicker in most scoring systems.

His Cardinals have the week's highest implied total at 27.0 points.