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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 4

Who's Not as Good as They Seem?

The further we get into the season, the more data we have to properly judge what's going on. But it's still early.

Three games tell us more than one does. But we still don't know exactly what's a fluke and what's the start of a trend.

Were the Saints just tricking us the first two weeks and they're actually still meh?

Are the Bills even better without their receivers?

Is Malik Willis good at football now?

We won't necessarily focus on those questions here. But we will look for opportunities to capitalize on excessively slow or fast starts by digging a little deeper.

Let's get to it.

Week 4 Buys

• Josh Jacobs
• Mike Evans
• Brian Robinson Jr.

Week 4 Sells

• D.K. Metcalf
• Kyren Williams
• Travis Etienne

Week 4 Holds

• James Cook
• Rashid Shaheed

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

Need a boost at RB or WR? These guys could be ready to help (quickly).

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

Only Jordan Mason and Saquon Barkley have more carries than Jacobs so far this season. Yet the Packers’ lead back ranks just …

• RB23 in non-PPR
• RB25 in half-PPR
• RB28 in PPR

The two main issues have been a lack of receptions (3) and TDs (0).

Jacobs ranks 20th among RBs in route participation but just 46th in target share. Green Bay – after two Malik Willis starts – sits tied for the league’s second-fewest RB receptions. The Packers finished last year 16th in RB target share and ranked 11th in RB receptions in 2022.

Waiting for Love

QB Jordan Love’s impending return is bound to help that area. And Love plus sheer luck will help Jacobs’ TD numbers.

Three home games among the Packers’ next four can’t hurt either.

The RB currently ranks 15th in expected PPR points per game for the position – even with just 4 targets through three games.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After three weeks, Chris Godwin sits third among WRs in PPR scoring, with Evans way down at 40th.

That looks almost like a flip of last year’s final rankings, which found Evans seventh at the position and Godwin 29th. (They ranked 11th and 37th in points per game.)

So is it just that the Bucs can only support one good fantasy wideout – and now it’s Godwin’s turn?

Shift Coming in Target Distribution?

Even if we go with the one-WR premise, should we really expect targets to keep getting distributed the way they have through three games?

Godwin ranks fifth among all WRs in target share, vs. Evans at just 50th. That’s tremendously different from last year, when they finished 20th and 18th in that category, respectively.

Does new OC Liam Coen simply prefer the 28-year-old Godwin that much over the 31-year-old Evans? Not likely.

Evans led the league in TD catches just last year and posted the fourth-most yards per catch of his career.

Similar Target Pool

Godwin and Evans split 45.9% of Tampa Bay’s targets last year. That number’s at 46.4% so far this season.

I’ll bet on a few of those percentage points shifting Evans’ way going forward.

Denver Matchup Drain

If you favor the deeper metrics and worry about Evans’ dips in targets per route and yards per route vs. last year, then don’t overlook his Week 3 matchup with the Broncos.

He drew just 3 targets among a season-high 34 routes (8.8%) while dealing with lead CB Patrick Surtain II. That followed 12 targets on 52 routes (23.1%) over the first two games. And Evans’ weekly yards per route have gone:

• 2.18
• 1.75
• 0.50

The Surtain matchup can be a killer for WRs. But Evans is far from dead.

Make a play for him ahead of this week’s home date with the soft Eagles’ defense.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders

Robinson ranks a solid 17th among RBs in PPR points per game so far, but there’s room for more – especially in the short term.

Two TD runs through three games has helped, but Robinson has also been efficient. NFL Next Gen Stats has him among the top 15 in rushing efficiency and time behind the line of scrimmage. Both categories indicate his O-line might be less of an issue than we worried heading into the season.

Robinson also ranks ninth in rush yards over expected per attempt and fifth in Pro Football Focus’ yards after contact per attempt. Those categories indicate he’s also making plays himself.

Perhaps the arrival of longtime NFL RBs coach Anthony Lynn is helping the third-year RB.

Big Games Ahead?

Austin Ekeler left Monday night’s win over the Bengals with a concussion, which makes him unlikely to be ready for Sunday’s visit to Arizona.

Robinson has already tripled Ekeler’s carry total this season (45-13) and would only get a further touch boost from his backfield mate’s absence.

After that comes a Cleveland defense, which has been 10th-friendliest to RB scoring through three weeks.

Overall, the emerging talent of QB Jayden Daniels certainly won’t hurt the strength of the offense.

Recent Buys

Let's look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• Sam LaPorta sprained an ankle in Week 3. We'll see how he progresses.
• Chris Olave caught all six of his targets against the Eagles for 86 yards and  a score. You're welcome to still buy him if the price is good, but that probably got tougher.
• Zack Moss worked well ahead of Chase Brown for the second straight week and scored in the loss to Washington. He didn't post big numbers, though -- 58 rushing yards, 39 receiving -- so there might still be a buy window ahead of this week's game at Carolina.
• Keon Coleman went from Buy to Hold after an empty Week 2, a first-quarter benching in Week 3, and his first career TD. Whether you have him or don't, I wouldn't advise any big moves at the moment.

Fantasy Sells

This trio brings some production … but also reasons to wonder whether they can keep it up.

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Two straight games of more than 100 yards and a TD probably have you feeling great about Metcalf right now. And you certainly don’t need to move him. But here’s why you might want to shop.

Metcalf ranks ninth among WRs in PPR points per game so far, and seventh in total PPR points.

But he sits tied for just 25th in expected PPR points per game. He’s tied for 15th at the position in targets. He ranks 23rd in target share. And 26th in targets per route.

Metcalf hasn’t actually led the Seahawks in targets in a game yet.

Target a WR1 Return

I don’t give you that setup to suggest he’s about to crash. We’ve been talking up the potential in this Seattle pass offense since spring.

Your goal in selling Metcalf should be seeking a WR1 valuation in your return package, from a guy who’s more likely to settle somewhere in WR2 range.

Metcalf’s outlook is much more similar to that of Mike Evans than a true lead WR. And Metcalf has even more target competition than Evans. He finished last season 24th in expected PPR points per game.

Can’t get the return you’re looking for on a Metcalf move? Keep the big guy and try again after this week’s potential shootout at Detroit or the Week 5 home date with the Giants.

(And feel free to simply wait beyond either/both of those games before making your move, if you’d prefer.)

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

We called Williams a Sell last week … and then he flipped his way to 3 TDs in a surprise win over the 49ers.

Shouldn’t we just accept that we were wrong and move on? Nah. He just became an even more valuable Sell.

Williams had a fortunate day, wrapped inside a fortunate team performance.

Still a Shaky Situation

The Rams showed Sunday they can still move the ball and put up some points. But they also don’t look like a good team.

They rank just 28th in Pythagorean wins, a formula that measures what should be the outcome based on teams’ performance.

The Rams also rank seventh-worst in yards before contact per carry, according to Pro Football Reference – and 10th-worst in yards after contact per carry.

Williams sits 47th among 51 qualifiers in yards per carry (3.0).

His role remains strong, dominating team backfield usage. But an inefficient runner in a mediocre offense on a bad team (29th in net expected points added per play) isn’t a great bet to keep delivering at a high level.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been really bad to open the season.

They sit just 25th in offensive EPA per play, despite ranking ninth-best in EPA per rush. As a team, only the Panthers have fared worse in net EPA per play.

That’s affecting Etienne’s workload. He ranks just 26th in carries among RBs so far and has yet to reach 14 attempts or 70 yards in a game.

Doesn’t that mean he can rebound if/when the offense gets on track?

Efficiency Down

Sure, a better-performing offense would help the lead RB. But Etienne presents other reasons for concern.

His yards after contact per attempt are down for the second straight year. His missed tackles forced per attempt are down significantly. He trails Tank Bigsby in yards before contact per carry: 1.64 to 1.93.

That last point would look more than bad luck for Etienne, but Bigsby also leads him by an even wider margin in yards after contact.

Bigsby in the Way?

That’s the other new factor challenging an Etienne rebound.

Bigsby barely touched the ball as he struggled through his rookie year. That left Etienne to rank eighth among RBs in both carry share and route participation.

This year, Etienne’s down to 15th in carry share and 18th in routes per dropback.

Those aren’t bad numbers, but he’s not the workhorse he was in 2023. And that shift makes the efficiency metrics even more important.

You’re not really selling high on Etienne, because he ranks just 21st in PPR scoring at the position.

You’re trying to sell on last year’s production, before it’s forgotten.

Recent Sells

Let's look back at our Sell recommendations from last week and how we'd treat those players now ...

I already addressed Williams. In the case of both Dobbins and Diggs, you shouldn't feel like you need to move the player. But either is sellable for a good return.

The Week 2 guys had some changes:

• Rachaad White has trailed Bucky Irving in rushing yards for three straight games. If you get a reasonable opportunity to sell White, get out. That'll probably be tough this week, though.
• Rhamondre Stevenson crashed hard against the Jets. This doesn't seem like a great week to try to sell him.
• Zamir White is averaging just 10.7 carries and 34.0 rushing yards per game. Good luck finding a taker.

Fantasy Holds

If you’re seeing buy or sell opportunities on these guys, here’s why you might want to be patient …

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

It’s fair to wonder whether Cook can keep producing at the level he has so far.

He ranks sixth among RBs in total PPR points and points per game. But he sits just 21st in expected points per game.

Cook ranks just 19th at the position in carries and tied for 22nd in targets.

We can blame some of that on his team blowing out its past two opponents. And the 3-TD Week 2 clearly inflated his fantasy total.

But at some point, it’s also OK to just sit on the lead RB from a strong-performing offense that’s leaning run more than it did under the last OC.

That said, if you don’t have Cook, the TD bubble and iffy touch counts are reasons to not chase after him on the trade market this week.

We’ll keep watching Cook to see how his usage develops as Buffalo likely plays more close games.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints

I hear you.

After you watched Shaheed deliver points on your bench each of the first two weeks, you finally started him against the Eagles. And got absolutely nothin’. Derek Carr turned back into Derek Carr, and you feel like you got duped by the latest volatile deep threat.

Well, we’re all still learning what we can actually expect week to week from these Saints. But Shaheed’s role remained strong in Week 3. His 5 targets trailed only Chris Olave (6) and constituted 20% of the team’s pass attempts.

Shaheed very nearly hauled in a 40-yard TD in the second quarter – and got close to another from 25 yards out in the fourth.

He’ll have frustrating weeks, like just about any WR. And if New Orleans’ passing volume doesn’t pick up, then Shaheed will be a lot less usable.

But it’s possible the Week 3 dud vs. Philly winds up more of an outlier than the two strong weeks to open the year.

This week’s visit to Atlanta once again finds Shaheed in WR3 territory in our rankings.

Recent Holds

Let's see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• Tee Higgins came back from two inactive games to catch just three balls for 39 yards while Joe Burrow tossed 3 TDs to others. But he trailed only Ja'Marr Chase in snaps and routes, and his 6 targets fell just one behind Chase and Iosivas. Higgins had two end-zone targets go incomplete. He'll deliver fantasy points soon.
• Engram has missed the past two games, and we don't know about him for this week. It's tough to recommend trading for a guy with a bum hamstring and littered injury history. The biggest question comes in smaller-roster leagues, where you have to decide whether you have room to hang on to him.
• Amari Cooper looks plenty good and enjoyed a big outing against the Giants. That might inflate his price too much. If it doesn't, though, and you're willing to take on the risk of Cooper's crappy QB, he could be a solid addition.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want ... and the league mates who need what you got. And then it'll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more ...

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.