Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 6: RBs for Sale!

Sell Now, Thank Us Later

We’re going with an overarching theme this week …

Sell your overrated RB. Buy someone else’s underrated WR.

Why? I didn’t set that slogan and then go hunting for players to fill it. That’s just how this week’s selections sorted. In each category, a couple of players have been candidates before but narrowly missed the cut.

On the “sell” side, I even wrote up one of the guys for last week’s Expert Moves. Now he’s a consensus staff pick.

Note: That’s how we pick these guys every week. It’s not just me hitting you with my targets. It’s staff collaboration. (And then my convincing pitches.)

Let’s get to it.

Week 6 Buys

• Chris Olave
• Brian Thomas Jr.
• Chris Godwin Jr.

Week 6 Sells

• J.K. Dobbins
• David Montgomery
• Michael Carter

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Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

Let’s start with a pair of guys who have flirted with this category and another guy we only recently got back on the field.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

The case for buying Olave at his low-WR3 ADP this summer was this: The player’s good enough to overcome poor QB play and stay at least decent for your team. And that’s exactly what he’s done through five weeks.

Olave sits 30th among WRs in PPR points per game, right about where he was getting drafted. He’s doing that despite playing for a team that ranks just 27th in scoring, 24th in total yards, and 25th in passing yards.

Olave has found the end zone once and reached 60 yards in a game zero times. So why bother buying?

He’s So Close to More Fantasy Points

Olave’s usage this season has been way better than we anticipated, even in liking him at cost this summer.

Olave ranks second in the league in targets through five weeks. That puts him second among WRs in expected PPR points per game, trailing only Puka Nacua in each category. He’s fifth at the position in target share after ranking 65th in 2024.

Of course, QB play has kept Olave from realizing a lot of those points and served as the primary driver for the wideout ranking second among all players in points scored under expectation.

I’m not here to tell you that Spencer Rattler’s about to turn things around and vault Olave into QB1 territory. But sheer luck could boost the Saints WR considerably. Olave sits tied for fifth in red-zone targets (11) and end-zone targets (five), according to Pro Football Focus. He has scored once.

One more TD -- even if we assume it comes from just 1 yard out -- vaults Olave to WR24 in points per game.

What if the QB Play Stays Poor?

Here’s the thing about that floor-level scoring for Olave so far: It probably doesn’t have too many of his current holders excited about him. That’s good for the asking price.

And even if nothing gets better about his situation, it protects your transaction from becoming a “bust.” At worst, you’re buying a consistent WR3. Olave has logged 10+ targets in four of five games, in an offense that ranks seventh in total pass attempts.

That offense now gets the fourth-best WR-scoring schedule over the next four weeks, according to our Strength of Schedule tool:

That’s three strongly positive WR matchups among the next four games. And even the “negative” one mixed is a Chicago D that currently ranks 20th in pass DVOA.

Olave could be sitting on quite a bit more points after that stretch, and his bye doesn’t come until Week 11.

That affords you the option to gather at least OK (and hopefully better) production over the next month, and then consider selling Olave at a higher price ahead of the fantasy playoffs.

Or just keep rolling with one of the league’s most consistent target earners.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Is it finally time? … And, follow-up question: time for what?

That second part’s the key. We’re now far enough removed from draft time that you’re not likely to find anyone still holding out high hopes for their first-round or early second-round pick.

But there’s still reason to believe in the upside for the guy who looked like he belonged in that draft range.

First of All, Shane Says So

In case you missed my colleague Shane’s film review of Thomas last week, here’s part of his summary:

That followed Jacksonville’s impressive Week 4 win at San Francisco, in which the Jags appeared to start scheming better opportunities for Thomas via “out” routes and pre-snap motion.

Check out Thomas’ numbers from the first three weeks vs. the past two:

Thomas’ PFF grades also point to improvement over the past two weeks.

QB Trevor Lawrence also garnered his best passing grade of the season to date in Monday night’s win over the Chiefs. And he has set season highs in completion rate each of the past two weeks: 

• 67.7% vs. the 49ers
• 72.0% vs. the Chiefs

General offensive improvement would make sense for the Jaguars, given that they’re now just five games into Liam Coen’s first-ever head-coaching stint.

Good Time to Reset Expectations

Thomas sits just 47th among WRs in PPR points per game. He’s one of just eight guys among the top 50 who has yet to catch a TD pass. Only Tet McMillan and Jakobi Meyers have drawn more targets without finding the end zone. (Though Thomas did score on a Week 1 run.)

We’re hoping Thomas still has the top-12 upside he appeared to sport at draft time. But we don’t need him to reach that level to pay off at this point.

The past two weeks have found him ranking 35th among WRs in expected PPR points per game, 36th in actual. Even that’s an improvement over the season’s first three games, and Thomas retains upward mobility.

The TDs will come. Thomas sits tied for 16th in red-zone targets but just 55th in red-zone receptions (2). And Jared says the Jaguars on whole are likely headed for more passing TDs.

Next Two Weeks Will Be Key

Now’s a particularly good time to try to buy Thomas, because he gets a pair of positive WR-scoring matchups before the Week 8 bye.

The Seahawks (this week) and Rams (Week 7) rank 11th- and fourth-best as WR matchups, respectively. L.A.’s providing a 39% boost to WR scoring so far, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. And Seattle has dealt with DB injuries for weeks. That includes losing lead CB Riq Woolen to a concussion in Sunday’s game.

Those two contests -- coming off the seeming offensive upturn of the past two weeks -- should give us a good gauge of what we can expect over the season’s second half.

And they could be the springboard Thomas needs. TE Brenton Strange landing on IR this week frees up more potential targets.

Chris Godwin Jr., WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin somehow managed just a 3-26 receiving line in that Bucs-Seahawks clash that finished with approximately 900 points and 3,000 passing yards.

Five teammates caught more passes than he did. Four beat Godwin in yards.

Through two games back from his ankle recovery, Godwin ranks just 85th in PPR points per game. That’s probably bad enough to get him dropped in some leagues. And it’s the first piece to his buy case.

Godwin’s Usage Already Way Above Production

No other player is averaging more points under expectation than Godwin so far this season. That’s not just at WR, but across positions.

Granted, we’re talking about just two games worth of data for the veteran WR. But there’s a reason the Bucs didn’t put Godwin on the physically unable to perform list to open the season. They not only wanted the option to bring him back in Week 4, but also wanted Godwin to have the ramp-up practice time ahead of that return.

And there’s a reason they threw 10 targets at him his first game back. And there’s a reason he trailed Emeka Egbuka’s team route lead by just three (34-31) at Seattle on Sunday.

And there’s a reason Tampa Bay gave him a three-year, $66 million extension in the midst of his ankle recovery this past offseason.

The reason for all that: Godwin’s central to what the Bucs do.

But is the Rookie Marginalizing Him?

It’s fair to wonder whether Egbuka’s scintillating start threatens to lower Godwin’s ceiling (and floor?) the rest of the way, especially with Mike Evans also bound to return at some point.

The real answer to that question: I don’t know. Nobody does. We’ve never seen Evans, Godwin, and Egbuka play together. So the Bucs don’t even know exactly what that puzzle will look like once all the pieces take place.

But that uncertainty likely helps lower the market price for Godwin. And I don’t know about you, but I’ll go ahead and bet that the Bucs aren’t going to forget about any of their top three wideouts over the second half of the season.

Once intact, that just might be the best three-man corps in the league. And Tampa Bay would be stupid not to run three WRs often.

Does the ceiling sit lower than last year, when Godwin ranked third in PPR points per game before going down? Yeah, most likely. 

But the last time Godwin ranked lower than 37th in points per game for a season was 2017. Between that year and 2024, here’s how he finished:

• 2018: 36th
• 2019: second
• 2020: 15th
• 2021: eighth
• 2022: 18th
• 2023: 37th

I’ll go ahead and buy that range of outcomes.

One More Mark in Godwin’s Favor

The upcoming schedule looks favorable. Seven of the next eight opponents rate as neutral-to-positive WR-scoring matchups by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Altogether, that lines up as the fifth-best WR schedule over that span …

The worst matchup in that run by current numbers comes against the Bills, who rank just 22nd in total defensive DVOA right now (and a modest 14th against the pass).

One More Thing to Watch

Godwin missed Wednesday’s practice. That factor could make him even easier to buy this week. But we’ll need to watch for further detail to see how worrisome the situation is.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 5 Report

• Meyers might seem like even more of a buy after last week's clunker. And, honestly, I hope my skittishness proves misplaced here. But Geno Smith has played so poorly following a strong Week 1 at New England that I wonder if he'll doom Meyers' production.
• If you're not sure who's holding Rice in your league, check the rosters. You might think, "If they've held on this long, they're probably not selling in the last week before he returns." But if that team's sitting at 1-4, it might have little choice.
• Williams' playing time has been strong all season. And his target share has remained limited. Maybe that swings at some point, but I'm betting he'll stay frustrating. Williams especially isn't worth your time if you only need to start two WRs. He gets more attractive if you start three and play with non-PPR scoring. Just about every WR is boom/bust in that format.

Week 4 Report

• Kamara got out-carried by Kendre Miller for the first time last week and then popped up on the injury report. We gotta see what's up here before doing anything else.
• I probably would have left Jacobs as a "hold" given his big fantasy line last time out. But Smola says Jacobs might actually be in for positive TD regression. (*eyes emoji*)

Sell These Players

Whether he’s been scoring for you all season or just last week, these RBs look like guys to try to move.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos

Week 5 showed us that the Denver backfield usage remains volatile -- but also that Dobbins is the only one with a safe role at the moment.

So why would we get rid of that? Here’s why …

Your Scoring Matters for This Part

Let me make something clear from the start: If you’re playing in a non-PPR league, then Dobbins looks like much less of a sell candidate. He’s playing better than at least anyone outside Denver expected. And, like I said, the veteran looks like the only Broncos RB sure to play a healthy role every week.

If you play in a format with reception scoring, though, that role is the first issue.

Where’s the Receiving?

The carries have been strong. Dobbins sits tied with Travis Etienne for 13th most carries per game through five weeks. That’s way better than you could have planned to get from a guy going in low-RB3 to RB4 range at draft time.

He ranks 19th in carry share, which is not quite as good but still solid. Way more solid, for example, than Dobbins’ rankings of No. 56 ranking among RBs in target share (4.5%) and No. 58 in route rate (19.6% of dropbacks).

He trails both RJ Harvey and Tyler Badie for the season in each category. And that positions Dobbins at just RB27 so far in expected PPR and half-PPR points per game.

Only six RBs are scoring at a higher rate over expectation than Dobbins.

Sean Payton Probably Still Likes His Rookie More Than We’ve Seen

Harvey’s playing time and carries spiked in Week 4 before tumbling in Week 5. What happened?

Denver controlled that Week 4 win over Cincinnati the whole way, and both of the Broncos’ top two RBs were running well. So they could afford to keep rotating their guys as planned.

Sunday in Philly, however, found the Eagles jumping out to a 17-3 first-half lead. That had Denver playing chase and putting Badie on the field more, starting with the 2-minute drill at the end of the first half.

Harvey appears to still trail Badie in passing-game trustworthiness. But he also leads Dobbins in receiving usage (even in that game), and certainly leads Badie in talent.

It’s likely that Payton continues to try to increase the usage for his second-round rookie RB. And the likelihood of that increase threatens Dobbins’ long-term value.

Why Sell Now Instead of Waiting?

Dobbins overshadowed Harvey’s Week 4 usage increase by delivering 101 rushing yards against the Bengals. He has also masked his lack of receiving production by scoring in each of the other four games.

That included a second-half TD in Philly, where he also racked up a season-high 20 carries.

One could easily take a quick look at Dobbins’ game log and see a steady workhorse. But that’s not what we’re dealing with here. So try to sell on that vision and his strong scoring to date, before we get to a more meaningful backfield shift that could lower the veteran’s value.

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions

Wanna hear a secret?

I wanted to sell this guy two weeks ago after the huge game in Baltimore. But hanging on to Montgomery since then merely included a predictably difficult matchup with the tough Browns run defense and then his second-best fantasy score of the season.

Here’s why it’s time to move on now.

Montgomery’s Workload is a Problem

The Lions’ No. 2 RB has scored well overall:

• 17th in non-PPR points per game
• 18th in half-PPR
• 21st in PPR

But Montgomery’s not getting the kind of work you can count on week to week. His carries per game are down from 13.2 last year to 12.1 this season, despite this year’s Lions ranking 32nd in neutral pass rate (according to RBSDM.com).

Montgomery’s target share is also down, from 8.4% in 2024 to just 5.5% this season.

Through five weeks, he has exceeded 12 carries in a game only once and caught just three total passes since the opener.

One More Factor Makes This the Moment to Sell

Montgomery’s Week 6 opponent now looks neutral, and potentially positive for RB scoring. The Chiefs opened the season looking tougher in that category after allowing the fewest PPR points to RBs in 2024. But they’re down to 17th in run-defense DVOA and sit sixth-highest in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Detroit heads to K.C. as a road underdog, but by only 2.5 points. So game script shouldn’t work against Montgomery’s use. And that matchup means you don’t need to feel forced to take whatever the best offer might be this week.

On the other side of Week 6 sits a pass-funnel Bucs defense that ranks fourth in rush DVOA and has limited RBs to 3.6 yards per rush. And then comes the bye.

So shop Montgomery this week, be willing to hold if the price isn’t right, and then sell harder if you’re still holding him come Week 7.

Michael Carter, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Here’s a different kind of sell candidate.

Carter’s value obviously rests on just one week of work. He took over the backfield last week after Arizona followed the loss of James Conner by losing Trey Benson for a while.

Taking Carter to the trade market after just one starting week will probably require a different procedure than your more typical “sell.” But he also might be the most urgent case on this list.

What Went Wrong with Carter’s ‘Good’ Week

If you started Carter in Week 5, he rewarded you with fantasy points. Carter finished the week:

• 10th among RBs in PPR points
• 11th in half-PPR
• 15th in non-PPR

The usage was even better. Carter ranked seventh on the week in expected half-PPR points. And therein lies the problem.

Carter managed just 2.8 yards per rush against a Titans D allowing 5.2 to RBs for the season (even after Arizona’s limited ground production). And he added a mere 4.4 yards per reception.

Carter delivered the week’s third-worst rush yards over expected per attempt rate (minus-1.72), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He also averaged just 3.7 yards per rush on limited work last year and has managed just 4.5 yards per catch in 11 games of action with the Cards over the past three seasons.

Could Carter Lose Some Work?

It’s enough to make you wonder whether Arizona coaches will shift more work to the other RBs, or at least leave room for another guy to get hot and earn more work in a given game.

Fortunately for Carter, he’s sharing the backfield with only Zonovan “Bam” Knight and Emari “I don’t need this TD” Demercado. So he’s not likely to lose significant work this week. But that’s not the only potential issue.

Last week’s opponent, Tennessee, ranks just 31st in rush-defense DVOA. This week brings the Colts (16th vs. run; fifth in total DVOA). Next week holds the Packers (ninth vs. run; third overall).

What if Carter maintains his backfield lead but just stinks for the next two games? Take away just the TD points from last week, and he’d have slipped to:

• 22nd among PPR backs
• 24th in half-PPR
• 27th in non-PPR

Arizona also led nearly all of last week’s game. They’ll hit at least the next two contests as underdogs, pointing to game flows likely to cut into the rushing volume.

Carter doesn’t need to cede work to teammates to lose fantasy value.

Here’s How to Trade Carter

As I said before, trading Carter now will probably have to work a little differently than with other players. For starters, his profile makes it even more important to use your Trade Partner Finder in the Trade Navigator to find someone in your league desperate for RB help.

(Think the person who just “won” Hassan Haskins in the waiver bidding.)

Even then a valuable one-for-one trade might be difficult to pull off. It’s not hard to look at Carter as a standalone trade piece, get skeptical, and shop around further.

So your best bet will probably be to pair Carter with another solid-to-good piece and pursue a higher-level player. Combine that specific target from the other team’s roster with a lesser piece of bench fodder that team clearly won’t miss. And offer up your Carter-partner duo.

Even if Carter winds up helping that other roster over the next four weeks, you’ve still secured an upgrade for your own lineup.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 5 Report

• You might be eager to dump Henry this week now that he's the only healthy Raven left, but that's exactly why we're switching to "hold" this week. There's no way you're getting a good price on the star RB right now. If you can? Go for it.

Week 4 Report

• Why did I add the "high" to Williams? Of course, we never want you to undersell any asset. But with Williams, in particular, I wanted to emphasize that we're not betting he's on the verge of a crash. He might stay just fine, and he has already more than paid off your draft price. But risk factors remain, so he's worth shopping.

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.